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House Price Crash Forum


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About Earplug

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  1. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Further capital raising ? massive
  2. I only found out when I pitched up at the counter this morning with my ID.
  3. This is a subordinated issue - not senior debt. If HBOS goes belly up this debt ranks at the bottom of the pile with shareholders. It is this core debt/equity that gives them capacity to lend. On a £100m mortgage book you need £8m of capital as a bank. This £750m of capital allows them to make new loans of £9,375 or more likely replace capital that will be impaired by write downs in their £7bn ALt A investment portfolio.
  4. GBP is also being distorted by UK banks (those that can) borrowing EUR at the ECB and converting back into GBP. GBP is going down against the EUR over the next 12 months in my view.
  5. Rachman, I dont mean to be on your case but I just dont buy the "area is insulated because its better" argument. It smacks of the 80% of drivers who think they are better than average. Wherever you live there is always somewhere else to look down upon. The £500K deposit typically comes from the equity of the SW London Victorian terrace or whatever being sold. That is going to fall. 150K of earnings bought you maybe 750K of mortgage 12 months ago, now more like 500K. Last time I checked no one was offering mortgages on the basis of an inheritance either. Elmbridge may be more desirable than some of its immediate neighbours but then you cant have what you cant afford and you cant sell to someone who aint there. The City is in the shit, that will have an indirect impact outside the City commute home areas due to borrowing costs but a direct impact on the City commute zone due to job loss, job insecurity and large decreases in bonuses. It isnt just about distressed sellers, its going to be about deserting buyers IMHO.
  6. A strange point. How many of the 18 have actually paid a "bar" in the last 4 years - the company bought them all new from the developer as one job lot (nice discount no doubt) 30 years ago. The retirees probably also have mainly been in from new or 20 years plus. So how many out of the remaining 6 have actually paid "current value" ? Who else can afford to pay a bar for a house ? Less than you think. If prices drop further down the ladder the money isnt just lying around to make the difference up to pay for an unadjusted next rung up especially if a 4 times earnings mortgage becomes a 3 times one. Elmbridge will always be dependent on the City - its expensive beacuse its 30min to Waterloo not because of the delights of anything else. As the city falls so will Elmbridge. BTW Shell are disposing their houses in Weybridge - much cheaper to rent somewhere nicer, and tax deductible too.
  7. Any views on whether this might be an interesting short term opportunity. EUR rates fall - 2 year EUR Govts appreciate ? EUR rates rise or static relative to GBP - EUR appreciates against GBP ?
  8. Experian should know - they just announced a voluntary redundancy scheme
  9. c 2hr 40min (I forwarded to the end) Q. Dear Sir what is a SIV, who owns them and what to do with them A. Well take Africa...... The guy gives loons a bad name
  10. One thing that always seems to get forgotten about is tax. If you are a higher rate taxpayer (41%) you need an annual pre-tax rise of 3.4% to keep your after tax at ****** CPI of 2% or 7.1% to keep up with (still too low RPI, 4.2%). The Public Sector is going to be very heavily squeezeed this time as Brown has tied the wagon to maintaining low stable inflation when everyone sees prices rising - 1970's public sector strikes anyone.
  11. Typical Mail on Sunday non-story. 10% over three years or 3% p.a. in other words. Yes more than the Police over which the Govt has been worse than shite but still a misleading story.
  12. Whats with the whole inflation obsession of Blears. I mean 2.5% pay rise less tax takes you exactly to the BofE target. Sounds like the cabinet have been briefed that the whole games up (and still dont understand why). As for Krusty she is right its all about supply and demand - but for credit not housing - what a fool.
  13. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/08/21...er-this-squall/ above from August
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