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House Price Crash Forum


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About fribblet

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  1. I agree entirely! But it you look at the dates for the initial posts, back in Nov 07 the opposite was true. Now the carry trade has been truely unwound and the Yen has been horribly artificially inflated, reality should catch up and take note of the horrible horrible economic mess Japan is in. Stirling has fallen too far, and Yen is nastily overpriced. Clearly before dabbling in these markets you should do your own research and make your own mind up though! It's never easy money.
  2. Now time to sell the Yen neat little trade that was.
  3. There's another one of these! Both brilliant Is this the real price? Is this just fantasy? Financial landslide No escape from reality Open your eyes And look at your buys and see. I'm now a poor boy High-yielding casualty Because I bought it high, watched it blow Rating high, value low Any way the Fed goes Doesn't really matter to me, to me Mama - just killed my fund Quoted CDO's instead Pulled the trigger, now it's dead Mama - I had just begun These CDO's have blown it all away Mama - oooh I still wanna buy I sometimes wish I'd never left Goldman at all. I see a little silhouette of a Fed Bernanke! Bernanke! Can you save the whole market? Monolines and munis - very very frightening me! Super senior, super senior Super senior CDO - magnifico I'm long of subprime, nobody loves me He's long of subprime CDO fantasy Spare the margin call you monstrous PB! Easy come easy go, will you let me go? Peloton! No - we will not let you go - let him go Peloton! We will not let you go - let him go Peloton! We will not let you go - let me go Will not let you go - let me go (never) Never let you go - let me go Never let me go - ooo Oh mama mia, mama mia, mama mia let me go S&P had the devil put aside for me For me, for me, for me So you think you can fund me and spit in my eye? And then margin call me and leave me to die Oh PB - can't do this to me PB Just gotta get out - just gotta get right outta here Ooh yeah, ooh yeah No price really matters No liquidity Nothing really matters - no price really matters to me Any way the Fed goes.....
  4. When the share price goes down a certain amount an auction is triggered. Usually 5 minutes long, but can be longer if it's really nasty. During this time you can't buy or sell shares, but you can put your shares in the auction, with a single matched price for all shares at the end of this time. Obviously during the auction there's no "share price movement" as such, thus why it may appear like they've been suspended. They havn't.
  5. What a dumb idea. Many of the sharp drops in the markets lately have also included sharp drops in gold. If things get really nasty (stock market crash) all the speculative money, and any profitable positions will be sold instantly to cover losses in other areas. $500 gold within days is perfectly possible in my mind. Probably the safest investment to be in at the moment is Yen, and even that isn't nearly as cheap as it was. Putting everything into gold at this point is simply stupid.
  6. A point is 1.00 Buying Gold at £1 a point at 940, will result in a £1 move for every dollar the gold price moves. If the gold price goes up to 960, you will be £20 up. With some of their quotes they have added decimals. The real silver price, for example, is around $18 - but you ignore this. IG will quote 1800. Once again, a point is 1.00, so buying £1 a point will net you £50 profit if the price goes up to 1850. Highly recommend limited risk accounts, such as IG do. You pay a bit more in the spread, but if you hold your position for any length of time then this isn't too big a deal. You have peace of mind knowing you will never get a margin call, and you're protected incase of a sudden fall in the market (For instance if you're buying the FTSE and a major terrorist attack happens, you're guaranteed to get your stop loss price - with a normal stop loss you'd get closed out well below the price you'd set in this scenario.) With these accounts it's impossible to go into debt.
  7. £/$ is a complete gamble. Both currencies are doomed to fall, complete guessing game which will fall faster IMO.
  8. Hi Bear Monger, apologises taking so long to reply! Sorry to hear about the big bet going wrong that must have hurt. Very similar story to my Mum betting on the FTSE. It sure is easy to get carried away when you're on a role. I also use IG for my trading. Am firmly against virtually all forms of technical analysis, and simply work on the idea of buying low and selling high, combined with strong fundemental reasons why the odds are in your favour for the trade to work. Thus I make very few trades in total, but those I hold are medium to long term bets that I'm confident with. I agree the world economy will tank, but sadly in my opinion it will be very hard to make a profit out of this ever since the Fed chose inflation in place of depression by cutting rates (hello stagflation). Markets tend to go up in high inflation environments, but the economy tanking will create downwards pressure. End result = highly volatile and highly risky. Clearly any options in this environment should be, and are, horribly expensive, and along with the upwards force of inflation are not a good bet IMO. However, this volatility badly hurts the carry trade (selling Yen at low interest rates and buying any asset in sight) as a lot of these geared positions get hit with margin calls and losses, and so during any financial market wobble people surge back into the Yen to pay back their debts. This makes the value of the Yen go up, putting those who havn't got out of the carry trade in a horrible position, getting crucified by the exchange rates. This carry trade has started unwinding, but has a long way to go yet to get the Yen away from it's artificially low value. As for Sterling, don't think there's any reason to explain why it's going to go down. Been one of the strongest currencies over the last few years, time to sell high. Thus I feel selling GBP/JPY is the best trade that I can see, you need only sterling to go down or the Yen to go up to make money. Sadly though, over the last week or so the market has FINALLY figured out that UK interest rates are going to fall (probably in december, got bets on that too) so GBP/JPY has taken a hit lately. I'll be looking to increase my position if we see a bounce to around 230 or so again though. This is my only ever currancy trade, havn't seen any other fundamentally worthwhile ones. All very much IMO of course though, don't blame me if it doesn't work! Am still learning myself! (Not that you ever stop learning in this game) www.dailyreckoning.com (.co.uk) may be worth looking at if you're interested, gives some very good analysis about the current state of the global economic conditions, and an entertaining read. Hope this helps Fribblet
  9. 24 points = 0.1%, not too bad really? I happily part with 0.1% every 5 months (bearing in mind the Yen has strengthened something around 12% against sterling in the last few months) in order to have a position in what I consider the most one sided trade currently in all the financial markets.
  10. www.sharesforum.co.uk - great little site
  11. Of course rates will be cut. In fact almost certainly a series of rate cuts in my opinion. Choice between nasty deflation and recession, or nasty inflation - its clear from the action in the US that the latter is the route we're heading for. They'll hide as much as possible how much inflation there actually is, and hope people are happy when the value of their houses and shares are going up in nominal terms, ignoring the fact that in real terms they're getting absolutely crucified.
  12. Personally spread betting, on the far quarter price. (March 08 atm)
  13. Done a lot of thinking about this since I spread bet for a living. Not convinced by gold, silver, or any other commodities - too much speculative investment in all of them for my liking. Cash isn't going to do partuarally well in a high inflation environment (especially if the inflation is understated) Equities wont have much fun generally, and most major curruncies will be fluctuating wildly and so become a guessing game. The Yuan is clearly undervalued, but may get hit very hard in a global economic downturn - so would stay away from that also. Going short of markets doesn't seem to be the answer either, since unless you time the downturn to perfection, you're going to be losing money hand over fist as the markets rally before the crash. Its also worth noting that in a high inflation environment, markets tend to rise - making it much harder to make money by going short. Put options are also generally overpriced. So yeah, doesn't leave much. The closest thing I've found to a dead cert is the Yen against Sterling. In my opinion Sterling is horribly overvalued, and the Yen horribly undervalued due to the carry trade (and obviously the low interest rates that fuel the carry trade) If economically things start going wrong, the Yen will soar against the pound. (Just look at GBP vs JPY during the credit crunch) All my opinion though. But my money is in Yen/Sterling, and a couple of small oil companies. Good luck whatever you choose.
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