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House Price Crash Forum

PeanutButter

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Everything posted by PeanutButter

  1. Hard to enforce though, massive border through desert (and we know how well the Mexico border works next to US). Something will happen, not sure what. You can't give people living in corrugated iron shacks access to instagram and not build deep resentment when they see what's actually over the electric fence, past the German shepherds, beyond the armed perimeter patrols and through the bougainvillea pergola.
  2. Lived there for a while. Still have relatives, and visit every few years. You certainly have to keep your wits about you, I've been followed in CPT in broad daylight, and had an attempted shake down by cops near Kruger. Lots of access to guns, lots of gangs from all over (Nigerians etc), endemic drug abuse (tick aka meth was popular long before it gained prominence in western countries). The fundamental problem is tribal and difficult to understand from a western viewpoint, we don't have that intense diversity and in-group mentality (11 official languages https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_South_Africa#Other_significant_languages_in_South_Africa plus several others). As long as everyone had a common enemy they could get along, but take that away and the demise was inevitable. It's too rich and valuable and large to go completely down the tube. De Beers won't be shrugging and moving out, but I can see a lot more off-grid resilience and even more private security taking hold. The one problem people don't seem to mention is the huge inward migration from war and famine (climate change) elsewhere in Africa. SA has porous borders and the influx has caused native unrest. This could well be the convenient bogeyman that the ANC can use to stay in power for the foreseeable.
  3. What is likely to happen? They go to remortgage and it’s too high so they… - take it and sacrifice elsewhere - go to part interest only - extend term - sell up (downsize, move to cheaper area, rent) but how many will have enough for stamp duty? and btls aren’t plentiful - take in a lodger - ask for payrise - move jobs - get wife back into work - charge adult still at home children rent - move in with family What else?
  4. Big Oil v the World, documentary series. https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p0cgql8f/big-oil-v-the-world
  5. UK Population in 1929 (ONS estimate) 45,731,000 UK Population in 2022 68,630,000 23 million more people But of course there will be no impact to food chains or cost of living from increased heat and sustained drought. Of course we must remain naive, blithely pretending that everything in the past is exactly the same as now and in the future. Don’t plan! Don’t think ahead! And whatever you do, don’t believe your own eyes. The snowdrops themselves are lying to us.
  6. Falls in Europe’s crop yields due to heatwaves could worsen price rises From Spain to Hungary, output of staples such as corn forecast to fall by up to 9%, adding to impact of Ukraine war on food security https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/27/big-falls-in-crop-yields-across-europe-feared-due-to-heatwaves Yields of key crops in Europe will be sharply down this year owing to heatwaves and droughts, exacerbating the impacts of the Ukraine war on food prices. Maize, sunflower and soya bean yields are forecast by the EU to drop by about 8% to 9% due to hot weather across the continent. Supplies of cooking oil and maize were already under pressure, as Ukraine is a major producer and its exports have been blocked by Russia. Large parts of Europe have been afflicted by drought and hot weather in recent weeks, including Spain, southern France, central and northern Italy, central Germany, northern Romania and eastern Hungary. Cereal yields are down about 2% overall, compared with the five-year average, though a handful of crops such as sugar beet and potatoes are doing better than average.
  7. I don't have the attention span for many podcasts but the Economist ones are often interesting and short. https://www.economist.com/podcasts
  8. It's a lot of hypothetical scenarios on hot-button topics and starts to feel as if we're being data mined somehow.
  9. Someone I know fell down stairs and broke all the bones in her foot. NHS took so long to do anything it healed wrong, she had to pay for private and get all rebroken to heal properly. This was before covid. Long term pain and usage of painkillers will take a toll on your body. Make a fuss, tell your GP it is affecting your mental health. Call, call again. They are only fire fighting now so you have to make your complaint into a fire. Or pay.
  10. Hello @Sausage Nothing's really changed.
  11. The Nobel prize isn't what it used to be. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46918729 And let's not forget the wholesome aspect of modern slavery/cash in hand/black market economy.
  12. That doesn't mitigate the risk of higher rates when the fix ends. Overpaying does. Like, making the possible flammable area smaller each month.
  13. I’m surprised this news hasn’t been reported outside the niche fashion press but Hermès Wuhan Store Reportedly Raked in $4.45 Million on Opening Day https://wwd.com/fashion-news/fashion-scoops/hermes-wuhan-store-big-crowd-opening-day-1235250864/ Unverified by Hermes but not unbelievable. The appetite for ultra high end spending is as strong as ever.
  14. It's fossil fuels and subsequent industrialisation. We've used ff energy to improve our lives, going from 1 billion to 8 billion in under 200 years. When people's lives are improved they have fewer children. https://populationmatters.org/population-numbers?gclid=Cj0KCQjwof6WBhD4ARIsAOi65ahTvIkd_4MGJ75zdldqR8O0-4iNs02zHgvs9PB-qrP5XirXj_U5SoAaAkQ-EALw_wcB For this to continue for all the developing nations we would need to continue using fossil fuels at the same or a greater rate. And why shouldn't everyone in Africa have an SUV and aircon and take flights for holidays? Why should developing nations put up with being held back when developed nations have already benefited massively from fossil fuel energy? But when you say about slowing population growth: 'it's happening everywhere' I simply cannot agree. It is only happening in countries that have already developed using fossil fuel energy. Anyone who thinks we can happily reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100 without resource wars and extreme climate breakdown is disturbingly naive. Edit: apologies for going off topic. I doubt anywhere with an increasing population is building enough housing. Perhaps US needs to negotiate a relocation agreement with Japan and Italy.
  15. Don’t be naive. I like how succinct that is. UK cities need to prepare for future wildfires, say fire chiefs https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/26/uk-cities-need-to-prepare-for-future-wildfires-say-fire-chiefs Fire chiefs have warned that cities in the UK need to prepare for wildfires after dozens of “unprecedented” blazes broke out during last week’s record-breaking temperatures. Temperatures reached 40C (104F) across England last Tuesday in a heatwave that dried out green spaces, triggering wildfires that destroyed more than 40 houses and shops. The National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) tactical adviser, David Swallow, told the BBC that “services need to recognise the risk they’ve now got”. “If they don’t, then they’re naive,” he said.
  16. Please can you explain what has driven western population growth to fall. Then please can you explain why that same factor(s) will cause developing nations populations to fall.
  17. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ And 45 million extra people added to the world population so far this year (yes that is births - deaths).
  18. 10 years from 2016 vote or from actual legal Brexit impacts beginning? If latter: Sterling devalued further. Greater inequality. Massive debt burden. Environmental standards weakened with knock on effects of devastation. Industry self regulation widened, govt oversight weakened or removed from communications, water, energy. Small business numbers dropped off a cliff. Massive escalating Channel immigration; 50,000+ a year. Climate pledges broken. Impacts of climate breakdown continuing to escalate. Labour in power eventually. The UK relegated to a minor role in geopolitics. * TTIP and chlorine chooks. Farmers betrayed, leave industry in numbers.
  19. Overpay with everything you can. Really focus, no amount too small.
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