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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by PeanutButter

  1. 1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

    The average working person having no prospect of a secure home at any point in their lifetime is "not a healthy state". People moan about the 2 week gravedigger strike in Liverpool and Manchester the 1970s as if this was the height of economic dysfunction, nowadays secure housing has been out of reach for the average propertyless worker for coming up on 2 decades.

    Interestingly, in the 1970s more people left the UK than came to it. 

    Interactive graph here:




  2. Look, I'm not entirely convinced they know what they're doing. Is there a Canadian they can blame? :D



    As their country goes into what could be its slowest year of growth in decades, just above 6%, Chinese residents face rising living costs and debt, stagnating wages and worries about job security.

    Many have seen their savings wiped out in peer-to-peer lending scams, as Chinese stocks reached new lows last year, and as the property market, the largest store of household wealth in China, declined.


    The term “consumption downgrade” has become popular online, as netizens swap advice about how to save money.

    I heard this phrase on a radio news article this weekend as well. 


    China’s slowdown is the result of a government campaign to rein in excessive debt and calm property prices. “Then came the trade war, which hasn’t had a huge direct effect on the economy, but has eliminated the sense of certainty and stability central to business and consumer confidence,” said Scott Kennedy of CSIS in Washington.

    They did this ON PURPOSE.


    The government is trying to restore confidence by cutting individual taxes and lowering mortgage requirements. In the northern province of Hebei, the government has proposed a four-day working week to encourage spending. City officials in Beijing are asking retailers to stay open for longer to foster a “night economy”.


    Others say the structural problems in the Chinese economy cannot be fixed so easily. “Turning on the credit spigots alone won’t fix the problem,” said Kennedy.

    All I hope is that their ridiculous mania for decimating the entire world's population of pangolins, rhinos, elephants and tigers draws to an abrupt end. 


    “Being brainwashed by consumerism is not a wise option for ordinary people like us,” she said. “Trying to get the best products with less money is not something to be ashamed of.”


  3. They had two bubbles at the same time feeding into each other - land value and stock market. So it was a double crash when it happened. And it wasn't just individuals driving the speculation, corp tax cuts gave money to businesses to gamble too. 

    Population only started declining in the 00s. https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/population but birth rate was dropping before


    declining birth rate that resulted from feminism

    Having spoken with women in Japan they certainly don't regard it as a feminist country :D At least nine Japanese medical schools manipulated admissions, in part to exclude female students, a government investigation has found. 

    But if we're taking random guesses I'd also suggest that as a nation the Japanese do tend to 'Learn A Lesson' from past major mistakes. They're hugely pacifist as a result of WWII and extremely inward looking (their news rarely has international stories on it). ie they learned from wartime mistakes.

    Ditto the crash, perhaps?



  4. 23 minutes ago, MarkG said:

    In some hand-wavy sense, perhaps. But you won't find many death certificates that list 'pollution' as the cause of death. You know all those 'air pollution kills 50 bazillion people every year!' studies? When you read the small print, you discover that it's all just a computer model of the number of very sick people who might have died a couple of weeks earlier than they otherwise would have done.

    Aside from some localized areas like the Tube, Britain has no problem with air pollution. It's just more anti-Western propaganda.

    Nah. I breathe it in when I go for a run. Big difference running before the school run 4x4s choke up the roads round my way. Nasty.

    I’m not big on conspiracy theories (it’s Soros isn’t it? ;) )

    2.5 million combustion engine cars in London. (Let’s ignore the tonnes of heavy diesel vehicles working to throw up those precious luxury new build apartments we sell to foreigners to keep empty).

    They don’t spit out unicorn breath :D

    Humans aren’t meant to huff up soot and monoxide. 


  5. 12 hours ago, MarkG said:

    Probably because it's simply not a serious issue in Britain. Air pollution was a killer in the 50s. It's barely noticeable today, except perhaps in London (supposedly the Tube has some of the most polluted air in the UK).

    It's a more invisible pollution, true. Still contributing to deaths. I expect the foot dragging has much to do with the cost of reigning in emissions + lobbying from car makers and construction.

  6. Oh it’s almost as if we’ve been saying this all along ?


    More than 40% of former council homes now rented out by private landlords

    Ministers are facing calls to shelve Margaret Thatcher’s totemic right-to-buy scheme after a devastating analysis revealed that more than 40% of council houses sold under its terms in London are now privately rented.

    The damning findings of an analysis of Freedom of Information data also show that:

     Tens of millions of pounds are being paid by local authorities to rent former council homes in order to house growing numbers of homeless families;

     Some councils have bought back their former homes at more than six times the amount they sold them for;

     Hundreds of private landlords now own five or more right-to-buy properties. There are several London boroughs where more than half the houses sold through the policy are now in the hands of private landlords. Private renters have to pay more than people living in council-owned properties.





  7. 5 minutes ago, MarkG said:

    If you think Britain's air quality is anything even remotely vaguely like that in the third world, you've clearly never been there.

    Heck, even over here there have been times when we had to keep all the vents and windows in the house closed for days because the forest fire smoke was so thick we could barely see 100m. Not as bad as some days when I was in China, but getting close.

    I meant that in terms of government intervention and prioritising air pollution as a matter of serious concern we seem to have just as much foot dragging as any developing country. 

  8. Another thing you may not know about Bitcoin: it's killing the planet - As a Bitcoin maker who covered the oil industry as a journalist, I see parallels between the two that may haunt cryptocurrency



    I make Bitcoin, and in a previous life, I covered the oil industry as a journalist. Increasingly, I’m realizing the two worlds are alike. Bitcoin is oil.

    And one day, Bitcoin will become big oil, and all who dabble in it will be reborn as enemies of the environmental movement, seen as plunderers of the planet and the bad guys in the fight against climate change – just like oil.

    Bitcoin’s environmental footprint will haunt it. Nobody has pointed this out, but it is painfully clear: if we can at all predict an industry’s growth by that of a different one, then oil is Bitcoin’s crystal ball.

    Most cryptocurrencies, of which Bitcoin is the first and most valuable, are created by running servers to crunch mathematical puzzles, or “mining”.

    I have a facility that does that in Canada’s oil capital of Calgary, and its business model is similar to that of the city’s dominant industry. Both profit by generating and selling a product whose price swings with supply and demand. Some in Calgary partake in both.

    The cryptocurrency world is bigger than mining, just as the vaguely defined big oil is more than those who extract crude. But shares in either industry move in sync with the value of the underlying asset.



  9. 10 hours ago, Wayward said:

    Once upon a time this would have been a scandal and have been the downfall of administrations...but such is the cynicism now and low expectations of those with power that they get away with this with little challenge.  They claim they are helping FTBs with no hint of shame...

    Too many scandals to choose from. 

  10. 10 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

    I like this line best on the BBC which has it as a top story...next to the Brexit headline:

    It's the most downbeat reading since records started in October 1998 and the pessimism is blamed on the lack of clarity around Brexit..”

    Forget the idiotic BBC claim that Brexit is to blame (this a global phenomenon with Canada New Zealand China etc leading the way), this is really good news. The fact is that if it didn’t tie into their Brexit narrative it would be way down the page. Prices will have to follow soon if we start seeing unemployment rise. Forced sellers will drive prices down hard and fast.


    Brexit does play a part though. People here will be holding off because they don’t know what’s going to happen. China is a factor, but most people aren’t sitting tight because of China, not when rates are so low. They’re sitting tight because their jobs might disappear overseas. 

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