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Lord Blackadder

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About Lord Blackadder

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  1. All economies have a neutral rate albeit it is constantly changing. One interpretation would be that everyone else appears to be moving to what they consider their neutral rate is. We're not because it would be too painful. If one assumes that the economy moves in cycles then I would suggest that after a period of global low rates it would be prudent we stopped printing money too. Our neutral rate is not 4.5%. The other oft quoted reason is the impact on exchanges rates and money flows. Many people think that a low pound will help exports and so is worth a little inflation to maintain growth.
  2. Just been watching Trichet's (ECB) announcement to the Eu Parliament Committee. They're going to raise rates at the next meeting. So I guess were the only ones who seem to think we can keep riding the debt wave with no inflation. Eu growth is as bad if not worse than ours and yet they know whats coming. Trichet explicitly said that accomodation was high, liquidity was high and oil prices were historically high and likely to remain so. Most significantly they even had an analyst on Bloomberg state it wasn't really about how much they rose by but that the ECB is looking, like the US, to mov
  3. I haven't logged in for a while because as the prices faltered the discussion seemed to falter too. I believe the trends and media over the last 3 or 4 months have been broadly negative and hence raised a lot of hopes on HPC that things were finally moving concertedly downwards. However here we are with a bit of a rally in data and PR and naturally despondency rapidly establishes itself. The bulls have got there tails up; not least because the bears are expressing quite alot of frustration and pessimism. My view, for what its worth, is that the UK economy still looks as ropey as ever and th
  4. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...3&in_page_id=57 Now lets see how the media and the market responds. Everyone knows bubbles past and present spread from the SE; as did the busts. Another good statistic in the armoury for the arguments against irrational optimism.
  5. Dr B. Do you think this will be an extended correction? I've held onto my oil stock in the past through various ups and downs but this looks a bit more serious across the board. What's your time frame - for the moment ?
  6. Getting confused now. Although todays equity losses were more broad based a large component over the last 3 days has been the retreat in energy stocks on the back of BP warning and the Fed's hawkish comments on inflation. Randall: if what you say is true and I suspect it is do you think energy stocks will be supported by shortage and therefore prop up the ftse or are you saying the whole thing will tank on the threat of reduced demand due to stagflation and rising interest rates? If the ftse does tank the negative press will increase massively. No amount of Halifax reporting will offset thi
  7. Agreed. One aspect of the programme which I liked and helped to raise questions was the way the showed clips of Brown from 1997 saying 'stability' 'no more boom and bust' 'managing the economy not for short term gain'; and then comparing that with the results now. The comparison between the rhetoric and the results was stark. Where has all that money gone?!?
  8. You've got to take into account the audience. Balls did come across very unconvincingly. Far better the public think ' there's something not quite right here' than have Paxman bash away, which is when people switch off completely by thinking he's giving Balls a hard time and thereby let him off the hook. This sort of information seeps into the public consciousness. You can't batter them with things they don't really understand and expect them to have a revelation.
  9. Is that rhetorical Rich? Hell manufacturing has been crying out for investment and some radical 'reform' for years. There's nothing that Brown or anyone is going to do in the next 6 months to prevent the accelerating decline that is apparent daily. Even without the oil price it would be a train wreck. Brown must go to bed at night cursing the weather in the gulf; because IMO that has accelerated the structural problems he faces by 6 - 12 months and now there's no time for manoevre. He's dead in the water.
  10. Hell, Guys, what do you expect? That was as negative as you could possibly get on mainstream and at a level that the public might understand. At the end of every section it effectively left the (IMO) loaded question as to Brown's 'economic miracle' It touched on most areas, albeit not the housing market, but it surely made clear that most of the economy was supported by public spending and debt, AND that this CANNOT continue. For all those people with significant debt this was a reasonably clear warning. Whether the majority have the intelligence to heed it is open to question. As with all
  11. WOuldn't go that far. But for people with their eyes and ears even half open it must raise questions. If the BOE cut interest rates to support consumer spending and housing and then inflation and house prices increase it just makes them lall ook completely bl&&dy stupid. I believe that contradictory data like this actually undermines confidence in the medium / long term. How can it do anything else when it appears none of them know what they're doing. It has been argued that if Merv and the boys supported a hold last month then now Bean and his bozzos have been proved trigger happ
  12. Thanks for your views, Guys. Regrettfully can't afford to put too much into Gold, need the cashflow. Time for me to do some more reading. Suppose an additional question is how fast could it all unravel. I know stocks can drop double digit in minutes but I would presume we would get indicators that cash was a dangerous spot to be in? By that time gold would be expensive and then I'm back to buying bricks and mortar despite the fact it too will have low intrinsic value.
  13. Lurker, Good analogy. Still not clear to me though. The article I read was an interview with some guy called Gordon. He suggested that Cash and Gold would be the safe havens for deflation. This in itself seems contradictory as I thought Gold was a primary hedge for inflation. I guess he's suggesting it as a haven against complete financial collapse. Haven't seen anyone putting more than 20 - 30% into gold. Where the hell do you put the rest? Don't count myself as particularly slow but having trouble getting my head round some of the contradictions at present. While I'm at it, I also have s
  14. I agree like many that inflation is understated. The central banks are still printing money like there's no tomorrow with the associated problems. I did finally read tonight an article linked from another thread on Kondratief Cycles. This being the theory that economies operate on a 70 year cycle comprising '4 seasons'. We're now firmly in 'Winter', the season in which debt is purged from the economy in a massive deflationary depression. The last time this occured was 1929 and arguably all of the imbalances are significantly larger this time. So my question is what is the prognosis? Inflati
  15. http://news.ft.com/cms/s/5fe58adc-0e0f-11d...000e2511c8.html An alternative way of explaning of why we are up the proverbial. The governments are just letting us consume as much as we like on the back of the developing economies and are own debt. This faustian pact will come back to haunt them. Money Morning advises: "on Monday, China allowed the yuan to close at its highest level against the dollar since July's revaluation - 0.16% above the initial appreciation of 2.1%. That makes imports more expensive. So there's every chance that the prices of clothes and electronics could stop fallin
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