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House Price Crash Forum


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About oblomov

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    HPC Newbie
  1. thus the impossibility of stagnation when the boom ends
  2. alliance and leicester "direct saver" account now 5.94% (6.1 % aer)....up from 5.8% http://www.alliance-leicester.co.uk/saving...;ct=savingshome
  3. great idea. id suggest putting the petroleum fund into shares like exxon or shell....still a hedge against oil inflation plus dividends whilst waiting. also consider shares in german electricity producer RWE as a complement to the energy fund.....as above dividends the bonus. they also have natural gas and crude oil production in addition to the core utility business. not outrageously priced at about 15/16 times earnings
  4. dont know what i was getting at....hes getting double the return on the £20k deposit in your example
  5. should you not deduct the lost interest on the 20k deposit? £20k @ 5%=£1k so net profit ...£2100 - £1k=£1100 i.e. about 5% re: interest rates why lend to a BTL "investor" @ 5.5% when the same is available on the overnight money markets literally risk free?
  6. plus with the all the financial stocks in the indices you have to believe their "earnings" wont be blown away by all the junk securities on their books going sour
  7. Theres a lot of London property available in this auction on the 31st May. It should be a useful indicator of market strength(see the Allsops auction under forthcoming auctions) the last auction i looked at about a month or two ago was very well bid despite bearish comments starting to appear in the media. http://www.propertyauctions.com/
  8. its a bit spooky Blanchflower voting for a rise calls to mind the saying "when the last bear turns bull..." i do hope it doesnt mark the top for rates
  9. i wouldnt be sure about "far eastern cash". arent the chinese printing their own currency and swapping it for the ongoing influx of dollars ? witness their ongoing accumulation of dollar reserves,now at $1.2 trillion and rising .
  10. when property stops rising it will start falling,that seems a cert in a bubble market (anyone seriously doubt this is a bubble?) the hard part is timing the turning point.
  11. thanks for the reply Goldfinger . The exchanges coped throughout the 70s though would you not concede? Although the LME got into a pickle back in the 80s i seem to remember. Just checked up on the latter:in fact a major customer of theirs,the International Tin Council went bust trying to support the market (a bit like the current gold scene in reverse). but the LME (bless em) stood the losses and honoured all contracts.
  12. do you think theres a risk of the new york or chicago exchanges ever defaulting on commodity options contracts in the event of some real price action?
  13. i guess goldfinger beat me to it in last post
  14. only in terms of paper currency. relative prices ( houses in terms of gold, cars in terms of gold, houses in terms of cars ) would remain stable. that said there might be something of a short term "relative price" spike in gold. but ,as you suggest, the extra profitibility of gold production would bring previously submarginal supplies onto the markets to counter this . in a nutshell,people would be refusing paper money in exchange for anything,cars and houses included.
  15. to be fair you would have to include dividends reinvested to compare equities v gold
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