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House Price Crash Forum


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About wagner

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  1. The same things were said in 1988, especially regards London. If a recession hits nowhere is immune especially in the high paying financial centre. If we have a worldwide recession the double whammy is foreign investors will pull out as well. I would be uncomfortable being in a lot of debt for the next 10 years. On top of high interest rates in the early 90s, job insecurity had a large part to play. When every 6 months there are a round of lay offs the last thing you are thinking of is getting into a big commitment. Also when house prices fall, the talk goes how far will they fall. Amazingly the talk is about interest rates, a majority of people who lost their homes in the last recession were people who were made redundant. A large proportion were those in the building game, developers going bankrupt by the wayside. When suddenly newer built properties were selling for less than older built properties(interesting). RECESSION = REDUNDANCIES = REPOSESSIONS = HOUSING CRASH and in 10 - 15 years time we start all over again with another BOOM.
  2. With USA market declining and HIgh Tech jobs being outsourced overseas smells of the Three RRR 'S RECESSION REDUNDANCIES REPOSESSIONS
  3. Looks like its Under Offer, if you are quick you can counter offer. Remember property is going up 55 pounds a day. An amazing place for that price in Buckinghamshire, shame it doesn't have a lawn mower thrown in.
  4. I believe 1 in 8 in Ireland is employed in the building industry so the slowdown will create a double whammy prices dropping and unemployment. Thus the Boom and Bust Cycle of the past. With the slowdown "Fear" sets in, the feelgood factor goes, spending drops, thus causing businesses to close thus creating more unemployment. Its amazing how history repeats itself. Give it a few years of "Fear" then "Greed" comes back in fashion and it starts all over again. "So when the Spending stops, last one out switch the light off"
  5. When I was in the mortgage industry here in Australia, I had clients putting upto 5 credit cards debts onto their mortgage, e.g putting them all in one loan at a lower interest level. This is fine when you have equity on your home and you can still service it. Though we hear that people have greater equity in their homes, alot of peole have remortgaged to use that equity either in reinvesting or pay off credit car debts, car loans etc. This has become a problem here in Australia that people have begun using their home like a bank in the belief it will continue to go up, up and up. The same problem is beginning to bite in the USA. I am not sure how loans have changed in the UK. Its not only the problem regards repaying the mortgage but all the other debts people now carry, on a number of credit cards, shopping cards, car loans etc. The Repo season has started over here but its in the poorer suburbs thus driving the prices down there and this slowly has a knock on effect into the next suburb. The only thing holding the housing industry up at teh moment here is we virtually have the lowest unemployment on record. Its a fine balance at the moment.
  6. Not to worry the cavalry will be arriving to save the UK property boom, The Bulgarians and Rumanians with their big deposits are coming.There is talk of laying on cheap flights from Mexico City to Luton Airport, more people needed . Everyone welcome . surely house prices must double.
  7. Interesting Article, God help us if we have another RECESSION. Maybe we can spend our way out it.
  8. It reminds me of 1990 - 1995 when prices went down 30% to 40% . The press played the whole thing up what crash ???? . So in effect we didn't know there was a crash until after the crash. I realise that alot of the revenue the papers get for advertising are from Developers etc. So I am wandering which Developers are trying offload their loads. And which Estate Agent gave them the reliable figues. If no houses sell the Estate Agent gets no supper, most of them are only on commision.
  9. Front Page of Sydney Morning Herald http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/nevern...9337280481.html
  10. Demand for housing in London was high in the early 90s, rental demand was very high especially in inner London this didn't stop London dropping like the rest of the UK, even Central and inner London. This was a time when we had a very high Irish migration working on the building sites. A recession bites at everyone in all pay structures. Supply and Demand works. In London early 90s high rental demand low rental supply went in tune with high demand of sellers and low demand of buyers. The argument for London would be then that property would have never gone down in London ever in history nor anywhere else as population has grown from day 1.
  11. 70 % unsold is very high in terms of houses not clearing at auctions. Auctions are the best barometer of what a house is actually worth. During a boom an auction in your street can increase the value of your house by 30% to 40%, during a crash it can devalue your house by 30% to 40%. Auctions are an excellent barometer. Interesting times ahead in Ireland.
  12. A number of Reasons why property won't go down in the UK 1) Too many muppets 2) UK Property different to anywhere else in world (excellent weather, beaches, lifestyle, people friendly, no crime) 3) Press too scared to report the truth or don't have a clue (ehhhmm 1990-1995 each year property to recover next year buy now was being put out except they were right in 1995) 4) UK can handle debt "Bring it on" 5) Open the doors to more immigration so you won't be able to have any breathing space 6) Excellent wages 7) Its different this time 8) Government will print more money 9) UK Property doesn't follow normal fundamentals 10) Herd mentality 11) there will never a recession again in the UK, maybe worldwide but UK immune to this
  13. Likewise the BTL phenomenon (Investment property in NZ/Oz) is also 10 years old in Oz and NZ, and likewise for the same reasons. In heavily invested areas the property prices have been dropping and yes bought by more experienced BTL's at 40 % of the price. Remember as well the USA has gone through the same phenomenon as well regards BTL. So if the argument held regards to BTL buyer will be there unlike the early 90s there will be no significant price crash, therefore we should see no significant price crashes in the USA, Australia and New Zealand.
  14. Can the UK get a GOLD medal for this. Celebrations in the street. I was wandering was it a comedy show above or was it real news
  15. One thing that is great bout Australia is that we don't let the riff-raff into the country. There is a tight quota of immigrants all have to pass a points test and have a medical(plus an AIDs test) so not a strain on the health system. Also we look for skilled migrants or people who have lots of $$$. Although I didn't agree with this originally I see its merits. It cuts out all the scroungers. Its quite ironic alot of skilled people are coming from the UK to Australia, I think the 2nd largest numbers of migrants after the Kiwis. The people here would go crazy if there was an open door policy like yours.
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