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Reg Trainers

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About Reg Trainers

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  1. Err, he works in the industry. Do turkeys vote for Christmas. If he doesn't understand the fundamentals of money supply and inflation, I wouldn't give 50p for his views.
  2. As you say, many people in Bradford and across the Pennines are originally from small hill villages in the Kashmir. Often with very little education and a rather purblind view of the world, these people were invited to England to prop up an already dead industry. Hardly a surprise it's not exactly worked out peachy creamy. I am soon moving to that part of the world and you can get some incredible house for your money in Bradford, but sad to say, I wouldn't go near it. Part of me would like to live somewhere a little less white and surburban, but Bradford strikes me as being light years behind Leeds or York and no amount of regeneration is going to change that in the short-medium term. Leicester is a place that works largely because the immigrant population is educated, tolerant and very entrepreneurial - many of them were originally from the Ugandan business elite, evicted by Idi Amin.
  3. Heh, you must live very near to me then. I am a Mossleyite, a place which has inflated massively. We bought at the wrong time and ended up paying twice what the guy had paid for it two years earlier. Ho hum. I guess the only solace is that we for £100k we got a lovely stone cottage with front and back gardens - still alot of house for your money.
  4. You know house prices have gone radio rental when two bed new build flats are up for sale in Ashton-under-Lyne for £160k. Ashton is a complete hole and nobody in their right mind would live there, never mind invest in property there. Twelve of the sixteen on Mossley Rd are up for sale on the Ryder and Dutton website and I would be hugely surprised if any mug had bought the other four at these prices.
  5. Overpriced? Overpriced? Jaysus, nearly £300k for an eggbox. That is utterly utterly insane and shows how grossly overpriced things are.
  6. Wher I work, we get £4-6k a year for a car allowance, depending on seniority. The carpark is absolutely rammed with BMWs, Mercs, Saabs etc owned by kids in their late 20s, mostly. What you don't spend you can keep as cash. No one on my floor can undestand why I have paid £6k cash for a perfectly reasonable second hand Skoda which I will run for 5 years at least, banking the car allowance every year. They all want the TTs etc. Very odd.
  7. His oil down to $40 a barrel prediction is looking rather daft.
  8. Maybe you are a brainiac (maybe not), but you're a crushing bore to boot. That whole post all about you and how great it is being you, get a grip man.
  9. What a load of crap - are all business and policy decisions made on absolute observations or extrapolations within the bounds of statisical probability. A sample of 2,000 is statisically relevant and can reasonably be extrapolated to the whole population at probably 95% confidence with a 5% confidence interval.
  10. Heh, against the backdrop of growing inflation? It's probably what Bernanke will do (lowering rates), but if Japan's anything to go by if people feel adverse to spending, interest rates have little or no impact. Also, for the people on ARM mortgages which have suddenly kicked in at the full rate, a small drop in interest rates will make little or no difference. The Fed has run out of tools to save the US economy this time. Greenspan bottled it in 2001 and created this bubble, but there are now no more bubbles to inflate. I think Greenspan will come out of this whole debacle looking like a schmuck.
  11. Heh, I just missed spending £1,000 on gold last week because they cocked up the bank transfer, a lucky escape. It was always a hedge, I assumed inflationary pressure would outweigh the downside of an economic slump. I still think it might, making gold a good bet, but I'll wait and see now.
  12. Brad Setser a US economist has alot to say about where petrodollars end up and you're right, of late it has been pouring into Europe and the UK. I know of two Saudi companies in Manchester who have built big units. Remember though, these guys are looking to invest money to make money, not prop up a market. If prices start to drop, they'll be the first to get out and take their cash elsewhere.
  13. He once made a quote about dropping money from a helicopter to stimulate a sluggish economy. He is firmly of the view that the 30's depression was made much worse the lack of action to stimulate demand.
  14. Greg Makiw one of the top US economists notes on his blog today: "Wage inflation of 6.6 percent is likely to translate into significant price inflation unless (1) the economy become increasingly competitive, so markups fall, or (2) productivity rises at an exceptional pace. Either outcome is possible, but it is a better bet that if wage inflation continues at this pace, a troubling amount of price inflation will not be far behind. Here is the dilemma for monetary policy: If the economy slows, as recent signs from autos and housing suggest, and inflation rises, as these labor market data suggest, what is the Fed to do? Remember that there are two terms in the Taylor rule. The Fed should lower interest rates in response to a slowing economy and raise interest rates in response to rising inflation. No one knows the Bernanke Fed's preferred coefficients on these two terms (now that would be real transparency!). We may soon start to find out." What is happening in the US is far more interesting (unless you're looking to buy a house) than the UK at the moment. As well as rising inflation, the wheels are really falling off the housing market and the impacts are slowly filtering through to the wider economy. There are some great blogs detailing this stuff - Calculated Risk, Roubini and Mankiw. If inflation really bites, the Fed will be shafted, although given Bernanke's prior comments he will risk high inlfation, rather than a sluggish economy.
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