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House Price Crash Forum


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About Kingfisher

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    HPC Newbie
  1. Hi, Just been checking my bullionvault acount and noticed that gold is now trading at £15,000 per kg. Is this a significant milestone?
  2. Hi, As an example, I have £10,000 to invest for about a year that I have taken out of stocks and shares, so don't mind a bit of a risk. I like the idea of diversifying into real metal as I don't have any at the moment. Please can you suggest how you would invest £10k if it were yours. My current thinking is that I like BullionVault for its simplicity of charges and that I have tried it out with my 1gm of free gold, but it does not allow me to invest in Silver. GoldMoney allows both Gold and Silver to be bought but seems more expensive for smaller transactions. It does allow me to move between Gold and Silver (at a cost) if I think the market is going to be better in one than the other. I have thought about shares in mining companies but that would just add to my stocks and shares portfolio. Any advice would be appreciated.
  3. I have kept an eye on my area for nearly 2 years and monitored actual number of houses on rightmove (not number of adverts since several houses are advertised by more than one agent). The number of 3 bed hoses have steadily rose from around 12 to around 24 but 4 beds have maintained around 25. No recent peak for the new year yet but there was a jump of about 5 of each around this time last year. Hope this helps.
  4. Can anyone explain why abbey (now Santander) shares have risen by approx 100p over the last couple of months after remaining around 950p for most of the last year? http://www.gruposantander.com/ficheros/fen...anderCoUk.html# (then click on more detailed info link for share graph)
  5. Another way of looking at it is that a few months ago, a £100,000 interest only tracker mortgage on 0.2% above base rate would cost me 100000 * (4.5+0.2)/100 / 12 = £392 per month. Now with interest rates 0.75% up, the £392 would get me 392/((5.25+0.2)/100)*12 = £86,200 mortgage. Therefore I can only offer £13,800 less for a house than I could have done a few months back for the same monthly cost to me.
  6. There are a few internet sites that now allow individuals to advertise their own property for very low fixed fees. Once this takes off, and potential buyers search on the Internet as well as in the papers, EAs will be struggling to keep the buisiness. A bit like ebay slowly taking customers away from high street shops. It only needs one of the internet sites to launch a TV ad to let potenial buyers and sellers know that there is an alternative to paying the EA fees.
  7. If the three falls following the peaks of 1973, 1979, and 1989 are considered crashes, then a crash should be at least as significant as these. In inflation adjusted real terms, house prices dropped by the following percentages from the peaks in the subsequent years. 1973 1st Year = 10%, 2nd Year = 21%, 3rd Year = 27% 1979 1st Year = 8%, 2nd Year = 16%, 3rd Year = 16% 1989 1st Year = 16%, 2nd Year = 24%, 3rd Year = 32% My definition of a crash is therefore at least 8% in real terms per year for at least two years.
  8. Thanks for the info but could you help me a litttle more by posting a link or reference to a site that has this sort of information.
  9. Please can someone explain how to determine what interest rate is "priced in".
  10. So the debt they pass on to the kids will increase by the interest rate (say 6.5%) for every year that the parents live beyond retirement, until there is no more equity and their home is repossessed by the bank.
  11. Can someone please explain how the interest payments are made while the parents enjoy their retirement?
  12. I think that the 4 months 0.9% Halifax refers to in the following extract is not a rolling calculation. “Overall, house prices have increased by only 0.9% in the past four months compared with a 3.3% rise in the preceding four months.” The last 4 months increase (0.2, -1.2, -0.1, 2) gives 0.9%. The preceeding 4 months to that (1.1, 1.5, -0.2, 0.9) gives 3.3% Using 3 months instead The last 3 months increase (0.2, -1.2, -0.1) gives -1.1%. The preceeding 3 months to that (2, 1.1, 1.5) gives 4.6% So the quote could have been written “Overall, house prices have decreased by 1.1% in the past three months compared with a 4.6% rise in the preceding three months.” How about that for a change in emphasis?
  13. I have just looked over the MPC minutes for a couple of the last interest rate rises and spotted the one in Feb 2004, where 8 of the 9 members changed their vote from hold the previous month to raise. A raise this month would only require 4 members to change their view from last month.
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