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papyrus

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  1. exactly correct peemac. wages should be measured in terms of modal average, or atleast some derivitive that reflects the true numbers of low income earners. using the median average is clearly ridiculous - a super rich banker earning vast sums masks a very large number of poorly paid workers.
  2. inflation is increase in money supply.. with more money circulating prices increase .. that is inflation. the m3 rate in the uk is currently 13% and rising, the cpi measure (or ipod inflation as we like to call it) is heavily laden with goods and services that have enjoyed deflation... cheaper labour, technological advances in manufacturing etc.. wage growth is typically the counter measure to these increases but with close to zero wage growth (growth minus inflation) in recent years the balancing process has not happened to any large extent. hpi in the uk has been caused by debt and global credit expansion.. these are cyclics that will revert to their mean.. causing contraction. oh' and "everyone" is not richer at all.. thats the miracle of ponzi economies.. ..it's all an illusion that leads to competitive devaluation. it may well be that houses are a million pounds in 10 years time - what should be remembered though is that the million pounds won't buy many sacks of corn, bushels of wheat, barrels of oil, ms server licenses or whatever else has 'value' in 10 years either.
  3. it's a shame we can't organise a bulls vs. bears financial IQ test.. ..i know which side i'd bet on. la la la dee doo da da who will buy my box of tulips )
  4. .. fools and their money, or rather fools and someone elses money UK mortgage lending surged to its highest level in nearly three years in July, suggesting that the buoyant housing market shows no sign of slowing, figures from the Bank of England showed. The central bank said net mortgage lending surged by 9.8 bln stg in July, the highest level since the all-time-high of 9.97 bln stg set in September 2003 and well above analysts' forecasts for a more moderate increase of 9.0 bln stg. The figure is far more than the six-month average of 8.9 bln stg and follows a 9.0 bln stg rise in June. Further evidence of a strengthening housing market -- despite house prices already at very high levels and affordability seen as extremely stretched -- will concern rate-setters at the Bank of England and increase expectations that interest rates will rise again in the coming months, probably in November. The BoE also said the number of approvals for house purchases, often seen as a good indicator of future demand in the property sector, remained very strong, totaling 120,000, the highest since January and above expectations for a reading of around 118,000. Approvals were last higher than this in May 2004.
  5. australia is in a much better position than the uk due to the underwriting of the aussie dollar through commodity exports.. it's macro economy should be more robust to inter-currency fluctuations than either the usd or gbp, meaning each inflated housing aussie dollar will buy more ounces of gold (or whatever other tangible you prefer) than each inflated pound sterling. housing costs in australia have also risen from a lower base than the uk and it's m3 growth rate is less. however bad it gets down under - the uk will be worse.
  6. brass, you've been lucky to be a btl landlord during the highest ever increases in prices - backed up by historically low bowering costs. the same scenario hardly prevails today.. of course, it may well be that the average houseprice in 10 years is 500k.. but that 500k in 10 years won't buy many ounces of gold, or sacks of wheat, or uranium chips, or copper turbines or much of anything else of value. la la la dee doo da da .. who will buy my box my tulips
  7. marina, you seem always to make two assumptions. 1) that the bears are the stupid ones who will never own a home. 2) that the bulls and btl'ers are the smart ones securing their futures. both of those assumptions are wrong imo. there are many asset classes set to outperform housing over the next period that do not rely on expanding debt to income ratios. gold, wheat, corn, sugar to name but a few of them. investing is a question of value and not of pricing.
  8. yes an interesting point indeed. my earlier comment was a bit wide of the mark i think.. in real terms the bank owns the house - but actually the landlord owns the house - with a charge secured against it. up until the reposession occurs you could not be evicted since the landlord would be unable to terminate your lease, hence the nice thought of him having to offer you cash to move out. however, since a bankruptcy/reposession order comes from the court, then you could be evicted. a house changing ownership through the normal process wouldn't enjoy the same .. the sitting tenants' rights would continue from one owner to the next. so from the tenants point of view, catching the landlord in a desperate attempt to sell, prior to bankruptcy, would the best scenario if moving didn't bother you. if your home becomes subject to a bankruptcy order it would be too late.
  9. if your landlord goes bankrupt you cannot be evicted since your rights of tenancy come before financial charge to property. how sweet that would be - being paid by your desperate landlord to move out as he tries to sell into a falling market. marina, also worth remembering that the so called 'crash' won't really be a crash. it'll be a slow and an incredibly painful grinding deflationary spiral... you won't see much higher inflation and much higher interest rates. the bond markets expect deflation - as the max'd out debt ridden consumer reaches a point of no return. there has been much written on the mechanics of markets explaining why all markets fall faster than they rise. the great crash of 1929 wasn't really a crash at all - it was a series of legs down in prices interspersed with just enough of a pause to suck back in the speculators who thought they were at the bottom. this happened many times until all speculatory sentiment was sucked out from the market. of the mistakes made - the biggest one is to dismiss the lessons of history.
  10. food has been helping to keep cpi low - but this is rapidly changing due to the commodity cycle now reaching agricultural products. wheat, corn and sugar prices are all rapidly increasing..
  11. yep' it's money supply - currently at 13%+ and rising. the actual definition of inflation is increase in money supply - the cause. however it's the effect, ie. rising prices, that is focussed on. ..or rather not focussed on - as anything actually increasing is stripped from the stats.
  12. i see the bbc have a new haveyoursay.. babyboomers - boom and bust. could do with a few decent comments. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4798825.stm
  13. would the bulls like to visit my new website - www.first_rung_tulips.com it's dedicated to forgetting history, shows how every generation knows better than the one before, dismisses all notions of cyclic processes in every asset class - and will even show, with the help of another investor, how you can join our tulip mania by buying into just half of box.. and for the real savvy we introduce a new concept - buytoilet - where he can invest in a box and rent each tulip out to someone else, his debt outlay won't be covered but it will leave him to reap the rewards of his savvy'ness in the future when his tulips will be worth millions .. this message sponsored by halifax_tulips, natwest_tulips and the tulip_growers_assoc.
  14. if the same increase is seen each year for the next five .. ..then it will reach a 100% pass rate, nice )
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