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House Price Crash Forum


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About atp_uk

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  1. You want to try being taught by him, I knew people who got so fed up they changed courses!
  2. 1940's/1950's - total war followed by a golden economic era and the creation of the welfare state, nationalisation, social housing etc. 1960's - huge social changes, seeds sown for the breakdown of society we are witnessing today 1970's - country goes to the dogs, "basket case of Europe", loans from the IMF etc. 1980's - Thatcher, battles with the unions, privitisation etc. Frankly by historical standards the current period is remarkably stable and benign, far from being a transitional period I think it will actually be remembered for being rather boring.
  3. They should have stuck to targeting RPIX which is currently running at 3.2%, 0.7% above its old target. The switch to CPI was all about joining the Euro, which of course we didn't join so it was all a bit of a waste of time. The path of interest rates over the next 12 months is going to be upwards on the balance of probabilities, but we're talking about small steps, nothing drastic.
  4. 156,000 British citizens left in 1996, when house prices were very low, so the effect of house prices seems to be overstated. Also in 2005 91,000 British citizens returned, so the net outflow figure is 107,000, which is less than the net outflow of Brits in 2004 which was 120,000.
  5. What did the rise in August do? Not much, so I'm not expecting the sky to fall in this time. However if interest rates were to move permanently back to the kind of levels seen in the mid-late 90's ie. 5-7%, then price levels should adjust to that. The problem for those of us who would like lower prices, being that there are fundamental factors pushing up house prices that may well go a long way to negate the effect of higher interest rates. I think there could be a regional factor in play as well, such that different regions will show different sensitivities to changes in interest rates. Higher interest rates could cause a drop in prices in say the North East, but it may be that it merely causes stagnation in London.
  6. The often repeated claim that Brown wants interest rates as low as possible, is typical of the half-baked thinking so abundant on this site. If interest rates are too low and we end up in a vicious inflationary circle caused by rising prices and wages, is that going to make it more or less likely he will win the next General Election?
  7. I'll listen to these arguments about measures of inflation being wildly inaccurate, when I see someone provide a detailed critique of what is over and under represented within the index in question.
  8. Real numbers from a real bank: http://www.investorrelations.barclays.co.u...es/BB_Final.pdf (Pages 3 and 4) Savings and loans aren't the only things in the equation.
  9. Group mortgages are totally ridiculous, there are a hundred and one things that could go wrong.
  10. In February 2002 the average price of a property in London was for example 2.5 times the average price of a property in Yorkshire/Humberside, in the latest set of figures this gap was only 1.9 times (DCLG). Either London is going to go up or anything north of the Severn/Wash divide is going to come down, I don't think the narrowing in the differential is going to last.
  11. Employment is stable and high, at around 75%, nothing unhealthy about that whatsoever. You have to remember that it is perfectly possible for both employment and unemployment to rise at the same time, due to a contraction in that third category that most people forget about, the economic inactives.
  12. Err wouldn't that make interest rates 5.25% which is above 5%. Of course interest rates aren't the only means of controlling inflation, but it's the main one we use in the UK. Your cynicism is misplaced with regard to the grumpy scot and/or MPC, they do understand the danger of inflation and I don't see any signs of complacency.
  13. Interest rates will have to rise above 5% for the first time since 2001 next year IMHO, which is what most people on this forum have been looking for, so stop whinging.
  14. UK house prices do seem very high and it is tempting to call it a bubble, but when you consider things more closely is it really? 1. House prices in the mid 90's were undervalued because of the turbulance in the preceeding years, giving an artificially low starting base. 2. We enjoy much greater macroeconomic stability meaning interest rates can be kept relatively low and steady rather than wildly swinging up and down. 3. Low unemployment 4. Women participting more fully in the labour market than they did even 20 years ago, the average family now has two salaries coming in not one. 5. Less risk averse attitude to lending by the banks 6. Inadequate supply in at least parts of the country caused by a lack of political will to build ourselves out of high house prices. Just some thoughts on how prices might be explained as rational, i'm certainly not going to make a bold prediction either way!
  15. I think it's reasonable to expect HPI to be around 5% for the year as a whole, I don't think this acceleration will be sustained. However as ever the headline figure will mask significant regional differences.
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