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Heroic Purchases

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About Heroic Purchases

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  1. Yes, this is totally broken on iPhone Safari (6s Plus). I’ve switched to Firefox which seems to be OK, for now.
  2. Isn't life cheap? Just think what that e-book would have cost in 1980!!
  3. Having thought about it some more, I think use of the Geometric Mean is OK, as a ratio is actually taken of two geometric means. Each individual mean will be biased lower compared to an arithmetic mean, but taking the ratio should pretty much eliminate this bias. However, the average of relative prices (AR), is definitely bogus, as the quote says in the original post. And there was me thinking the CPI was artificially low compared to RPI and this is why it was favoured by government. Looks like it might be the other way round, and CPI is the smarter choice, but then I haven't looked into how the two baskets can be manipulated differently (they're not quite the same set of stuff). This makes the NS&I savings certificates linked to RPI look even better
  4. Well, this got me worked up a bit, so I hunted online for some hard facts about how this stuff is calculated. For the gory details: Consumer Price Indices Technical Manual 2012 So Although RPI & CPI are meant to be an "index" for a whole basket relative to some year like 1987, they are actually calculated from prices relative to the recent January and then the ratios are chained to get long term index The Carli (arithmetic mean of relative prices, or AR) and Geometric mean (GM) methods are the methods used for combining price samples of the same goods, not for calculating the whole basket As well as Carli and Geometric, there's another method which is the ratio of average prices (RA) RPI uses a mixture of 55% AR, 35% RA, 10% other CPI uses a mixture of 70% GM, most of remaining 30% RA In my opinion, the ratio of average prices (RA) is the only one that seems correct, although it's wide open to biasses in the actual selection of goods (as are all the methods). The AR and GM both seem pretty dodgy to me, making both CPI and RPI more than 50% dodgy!
  5. Nice, quiet part of town, but still very close to the centre. Flats are fairly modern, good size and layout. Ample parking. Still, can't justify those prices!
  6. I thought you might appreciate this chart. It shows Land Registry data on a set of about 60 almost identical 1-bed flats (St Lukes Square). I added a green line which is adjusted for inflation (RPI). Jaw dropping stuff...
  7. For the advertised properties on findaproperty, I look at the price halfway through the data. It's quick to find by doing a search with the minimum amount slightly less than the anticipated median and adjusting from there. They do publish a mean average, but I don't trust anyone elses stats! There are several websites that show house prices based on Land Registry data such as www.houseprices.co.uk. After some cut-n-pasting I analyzed the numbers in Excel. I'll post some updates of the graphs, but there's nothing to report yet.
  8. The Q2 LR data isn't complete, but I've added what's available to the graph below. I've also added the LR data thresholds for bottom/top 25% of property. As you suggest, the higher price property looks like it's taking more of a hit.
  9. These are median prices, so will be lower than the usually quoted mean average, but probably more reliable. Advertised values are asking prices from findaproperty. Land Registry prices are for GU1 and GU2. It's going to get interesting...
  10. Indeed. They need to give the sample size for each month. If you look at the prices for the different size properties, or look at a longer period of time the trends don't make much sense. An alternative I use for my area (Guildford) is to track the median asking prices on findaproperty (could also use rightmove). For example, if an initial search turns up 856 results (ordered by value), I record the asking price for the 428th property. This can be located fairly quickly by putting a lower price limit just below the expected median. I've attached my results below. The rental prices started falling in spring but then recently picked up again. My bet is they'll start going back down soon.
  11. As someone has pointed out previously, breakfast cereals are becoming more oat based. "Oatibix" is an obvious example. I can't find any good statistics, but I assume oats are cheaper than wheat or corn.
  12. Regardless of basket fiddling, I don't think it's worth paying too much attention to the month-by-month change in CPI or RPI. They give the change over the last year, so what happened last March is just as significant as what happened this month. The annual figure loses one change and gains the other. RPI: Mar-07 +0.6% Mar-08 +0.3% CPI: Mar-07 +0.5% Mar-08 +0.4%
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