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Everything posted by carseller

  1. I think the risk reward ratio on shares such as fannie mae, AIG, citygroup, is rather good. it's a low downside 0, and a huge upside. These things will do very well if we get another bubble.
  2. It's most certainly a bull. My mortage is down around 20 % from the peak, it's dangerous to borrow in cheap currencies, but I think I made it. The psychological importance of spring, sun, and a good sustained feeling, should not be underestimated.
  3. It's possible the dollar strengthens vs the yen, but I think we will see a weaker dollar, in comparison to most currencies (unless there becomes a big bubble in the US stock market).
  4. The Swedish currency is going to improve, as the tide of liquidity moves back, and the market become less worried about eastern Europe. It's damn cheap to go to sweden now. It's around 80 against the NOK now. I think it should move towards 85, maybe even 90 as the Swedish central bank is going to start to hike interest rates. However: The Norwegian central bank is much more aggressive against inflation than the Swedish.
  5. You can have it in my bank account. No problem. I'll even triple the money in the stock market for you I think it's better to place the money into some inflation hedge, that moves with some leverage to the norwegian currency. Canadian railroad stocks is one way to go. The other way is a norwegian index fund. It will move up if the norwegian currency does, just more. With the a norwegian index fund it will be 1/3 exposed to statoil hydro, the national oil company, and 2/3 to the rest of the exchange.
  6. I agree, I think we are most certainly in a bull now. It's a big shift, that is, in the earlier rallies, the financials were a drag, now they are leading the pack. The dollar is weakening, the franc is weakening, the yen is weakening, you had none of this trends so stronly, earlier, in what turned out to be bear market rallies.
  7. I think the US in 1929 was a creditor nation, Japan was the same in 1989. Not only that, but the US was bankrupt in 1992. The same was true for many other countries as well. However, due to the "kind policies" of Japan, and other asians, that did not dump US assets in 1992, as the US did with Germany in 1932, the Japanese actually helped push down yields, and create a further artificial boom in the US, even they technically have been bankrupt the whole time. The US never boosted their economy in the 1930 and 1940 era by buying worthless bonds of foreigners to stimulate their export machine, like japan have done now. As what happened in the US after WW2, the Asians will now turn their export machine domestically, our bonds will tumble, and their currencies will rise, as this happens, we will face inflation worse than in the 1970s. If anyone wonder if we will enter the 1930 and 1940-s, the answer is that we have already lived through it, and that the world on terror was the equivalent of WW2. The only difference between Germany and the US, is that the US have enjoyed the kindness of strangers. This logic makes this similar to 1949-1950. The debt levels in the US is irrelevant to inflation/deflation debate, as they are similar to germany in 1932, just living on borrowed time. Again. Imagine that the US instead of dumping Germany's government bonds in 1932, had kept propping them up, giving them a housing boom, a dot com bubble, all so the US could had their export machine going. it had in reality not increased the value of the german mark a dime. Understand this, and you understand that we are living on borrowed time, and something very very bad, can happen any time.
  8. With the tensions between the US and China, it's only a matter of time before US treasury bonds become dumped. Time is running out. When that happens, yields crack up, similar to 1950. We are getting there.
  9. It depends on the flow of liquidity. If it comes back, the pound will recover most of what it have lost against the dollar.
  10. It's on from today. The Swiss Central bank did something that caused the franc to weaken 3 % in just a few hours, plus promises of buying foreign currencies by printing money, or in other words intervene to protect their export industry, have the danger of reigniting the liquidity bubble as the franc and yen is the biggest funding currencies. The federal reserve, have not done it. but now, the swiss central bank are actively taking charge of the situation, chasing all that "safety" money that's parked in the franc, and telling all those afraid people that have parked their funds in franc to ****** off.
  11. The franc are weakening badly, 3 % in just a couple of hours after the message got out, and other centralbanks, especially Bank of Japan could start with countermeasures. this is extremely bullish, as they are using the printing press to buy foreign currencies. Central banks are starting to face to high political pressure. Here is a small brain chart I have made, so that you can understand the logic behind it all. http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/nn240/c.../brainchart.jpg
  12. I was in a selling mood earlier today, did not do anything though, and the market's goes up ,just confirms what time have shown before, that is, market's fall on hope, die on euphoria, and rise on fear. (like now).
  13. I am really going into depression over this market. I have to say that, I think I will need some injections of testosterone, to cope with this, damn..It's really a depressing market. Who knows when this will turn around?
  14. What I don't like about gold is that it have followed the same "liquidity", that have driven any other market, and metal, the last years. Gold have a different use, but it is a part of the same pattern. IN the crisis, gold have seperated from the other commodities it tracked before, to give gold a "fear premium". But before that happened, things pretty much tracked each other, gold went up on the same liquidity that drove everything else. The antidote to liquidity is US dollar. Just paper, cash, and treasury bonds. I think what would drive gold eventually, is if the US went on a serious trip of quantitative easing. lately I have begun to wonder if the extent to this crisis is so large, that the political solution needed, is unattainable, meaning that we rather will have a lot of miserable years ahead, where people are really after the government jobs.
  15. I simply think they (buffet), have a more religious crowd. I think it's that, not the quality.
  16. I think it's possible that the move below 8000, have been artificial due to the financials. I just don't know. So any relief on that part should bring it up. Interesting that warren buffet's company climbed 17 % yesterday, and even climbed today, meaning they are back above the november lows. I think this day will end in red, with a higher dollar towards the end of the session, who knows. Maybe - 0,4 %
  17. This all depends on the US policy. I think there is a significant chance the dollar will start to weaken, I have a hard time seeing the US economy really breathe with a strong dollar. I would not short the pound, before it was far below these levels.
  18. With oil trending higher, you got to ask if this mess will morph into the 73-74 bear, ontop of what we have already seen.But seriously, oil, is signalling a bottom, it's just that the insecurity is not cleared, as the banking mess is still a drag.
  19. I think the testosterone and animal spirit could come back, now that the spring come, and the stock market is at these levels.
  20. Here is some different exchanges. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=OSEBX.O...ource=undefined Also note the difference between COP and XOM. It's only what's affected by financials or with severe problems in their own country, in the US that are setting new lows. Atleast so far.
  21. I think what is driving stocks lower is that the federal reserve is not doing enough to expand the money supply, as the libor rate have went up for quite some time. I think they are contracting the money supply...Bernanke is greedy.
  22. It probably means that there is just some kind of suckers rally in the financial's at the start of the session..
  23. now it's only indexes without financial stocks that are above the November lows. That means, indexes like the nasdaq 100, and some international indexes. The regular nasdaq is full of financial stocks
  24. http://usacreditdefault.blogspot.com/2009/...treasuries.html It's starting to get ugly: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_0TfgKZcIQ3o/SNwz...-k/s400/CDR.gif
  25. I think we might get to a turnaround in the dollar if the mess in the US economy worsens beyond a certain point. It could be we are close to it.
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