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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by carseller

  1. iF they don't inflate, you will get hyperinflation, as the pound collapse with the economy, as the game of credit must to on for the pound to avoid a collapse. Argentina had that stop of foreign trust, at the same time, money was limited. Kind of hyperinflation in foreign currency, and local deflation at the same time.
  2. It's the same thing in the UK as in the US, only worse. You can look at shadowstats: Then fertilizer and various agriculture products. (this POT stock is George Soros largest holding, together with PBR) http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=POT#symbol=POT;range=my The money that goes into saving here, and there, to try and plug holes, goes straight into the inflation in agriculture products, many other things as well. It's no free lunch for the governments. That it's a black hole of credit destructions, does not limit inflation in "tight products", those products we need, and supply and demand are not influenced much by the crisis. There is some smoke talk about the US wanting China to let the RMB get stronger. In reality what the US is asking is, please let us print money, and don't print as much as we do, in other words let the RMB get stronger:)
  3. I can't really see any deflation in the UK. The pound have collapsed, meaning inflation will go up, not down. There seems to be some idea that the goverment can just print money, into the black hole of credit destruction, therefore avoiding inflation, but it's not that simle, for each pound they print, and don't have, the exchange rate get's hammered.
  4. Actually: The solution is to inflate. The alternative is much worse. It's debtors that's given a benefit, and that's how it have to be.
  5. Who know.Maybe I am crazy to be long the stock market. I have the feeling it's a bull. The bad bond auctions in the UK and US is not actually an inspiring reason to short stocks or hold cash.
  6. I have to ask how long the UK is able to hold it together. Unless the economy turns, it's runaway inflation.
  7. I think there is a new bubble building. It will be huge, probably like the perma bear Jeremy Grantham, that have turned bullish is saying. He said the blow off phase was still to come, and it probably will, wilder than anything anyone currently imagine.
  8. Solar energy is making a hard comeback. It fell hard into the recession, and did not ride the commodity bubble. That solar is strong is a bullish sign, things are on the road to recovery, as solar energy is the next bubble, similar to the dotcom in the 90-s.
  9. It's perhaps an expression of the manic depressive nature of the market, you are hinting at, but I'm serious about what I do, I try to follow the money as good as I can.
  10. I have that sinking ship feeling again. It's like Geithner was just to much of the emperors new clothes, or the new wine, on the bloomberg today, so I say, maybe, maybe we are about to see a sustained rise in gold shares, and a further downwards trend in the market.
  11. I certainly think it's spreading to the shoe polisher and taxi driver. Therefore I reckon we are long into a bull market.
  12. Very interesting that US house prices rose 1,9 % in January. It will be interesting when the shiller index arrive.
  13. The QE is not actually bullish for gold in the short run. It goes like this: the stock market climbs back up, commodities climb back up, and gold hold steady or fall, until these things meet, then they will climb together.
  14. Could be right to short for tomorrow, maybe it will open down, then go up later on the day, however I fear the good news will be lined up going forward. It's like 1990. Look at the carry currencies. It's a bull, for gods sake, just better to buy and hold, and build a position, than trade and risk loosing your position I think. Another round of the "bubble economy". You got to really wonder how many lives this credit beast have. It was the dollar revaluation that kick started it I think.
  15. The brainchart I made a few weeks ago, tells how this thing is going to play out: http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/nn240/c.../brainchart.jpg It's the tide, that's coming back, for good or for bad, what is the "big bubble now?"
  16. It's a new bubble. I just wonder if it's more of the same from 2003-2008, with commodities and emerging market's back on track (I think so), or if it's more of a US bull, like after 1982 (I don't think so).
  17. It is, I think it's a good idea in the sense that it's hard to get tax payer support for buying all that crap in a bad bank, so by instead supplying leverage, some cash, and have hedge funds buy some of it through the package or very good deal the treasury have arranged, the banks get more of the bad assets of their books, with more bang for buck for the tax payer, at least in the short run, instead of using 1 trillion, of tax money, 100 billion or something like that is easier to sell to the tax payer. The trick is that if they inflate enough, then these assets will be worth something. And I think these assets are a good deal. It's not worthless, in the context of a better economy and again rising house prices. It's even so that, the houses, let's say you buy a mortage for 20 cents on the dollar, the house backing that mortage, will be worth more than 20 cent's on the dollar.
  18. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgCFRGGQVXM I have seen this over and over again. Good investors tend to move their eyes like Soros. It's the direction of intuition, or simply a passive process where the person listens to the output the body gives to a given input Guys like Warren Buffet is more in the visual field, where Soros is more operating on a "gut level", that is more common in athletes and artists.
  19. I think the best thing in the common enviroment is to have a work that have "pricing power", whatever that is ,but it for sure ain't a goverment job. Perhaps owning a farm.
  20. The pound is really getting hammered. I live in Norway. I have never before seen the pound so weak. It's just bizarre to look at the exchange rates.
  21. Financials down today, however, the size of the "down", is nothing compared to how they have moved up, so probably a correction, otherwise most things are moving up.
  22. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/...ng-bottoms.html Housing are probably close to bottoming out. The dow is down so far, but given the huge devaluation of the dollar, I doubt it will stay down for the day.
  23. Well, then the quantitative easing have started.
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