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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by carseller

  1. Here in on of my indicators. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UDN#cha...ource=undefined This dollar bear fund, tend to have their lows, when the VIX is on a top. What is interesting now is that this dollar bear fund, is very close to the earlier lows, even the vix is much lower now than then. I think that would mean, that this will be a less severe down leg, compared to earlier peaks. Or a much more shallow correction. Here compared to the VIX: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UDN#cha...ource=undefined Here compared to dryships: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UDN#cha...ource=undefined Agriculture: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UDN#cha...ource=undefined
  2. leading indicators down more than forecasts, deteriorating credit quality, slowing credit growth, etc..Not very good. Right now the market is back to 1930-1931 mode (thinking of the good numbers as a blip), back from having been assuming a 73-74 bear market type recovery. Without a bounce in credit growth, there won't be any recovery. It was not very reaffirming, that BOA, had their gains from trading and refinancing.
  3. The libor late have some importance as well. IT's trending down since the 10 03 09
  4. The main confusion about the banks, is the matter of insolvency vs liquidity problems. They are disabling market to market, and doing all sorts of stuff, that will work if it's a liquidity problem, and if we look at the environment before this crisis and think that was a genuine trend, then it's a liquidity, not a solvency problem. If this is a correction in a trend of more and more debt/leverage, and they will get credit flowing again, then that approach will work. However, is it a change of trend, like Japan had, then there really is a huge matter of solvency, liquidity trap, all that went on in japan. The way they are acting on the crisis, is in my opinion a commitment to more credit inflation, even if an extended period of negative real interest rates are needed to get it to happen or one last blast, as that are the only way, the solvency problems can be avoided, as in, you paper over in the short term, and shut down market to market, and banks can grow their customers and themselves into solvency through borrowing even more, and take the debt to GDP, to a new high, let's say 450 %, just to take a number.
  5. Jeremy Grantham , he is a pretty smart guy. He wrote about this worldwide bubble in 2007, the article was called, the world is a bubble. And he was spot on. http://www.tradersnarrative.com/jeremy-gra...-trees-907.html He mentioned that he world might not had seen the final blow off phase. I wonder how that could look like. But I think he is right, that there might be a further leg up. Maybe it will move from emerging market's, commodities, and back into US equities, and give the final blow off with strong dollar and exploding profit margins, and 0 % boom and insane valuations, I don't know, or maybe the blow off will be in emerging market's, making this 1987 for those market's still giving them legs to go.. Maybe it's like 1920 for China, they are expanding credit like crazy, and selling more cars than in the US now it seems, for many car maker's
  6. I also think we are in a long term bear market, however, I think it's an inflationary bear market, like in the seventies, not a deflation like bear market that japan had. I also think emerging market's are in a inverse relationship, or a long term bull. I also think the recovery we have had since march is going to be sustained, and not fall into lower lows, it's of course more difficult to find a good position now. I think there is a slight chance, that the US, might have a strong dollar bull market. Or a market as after 1950 or 1980, however I think the chances of that are pretty low, compared to a 1-1,5 year recovery phase in a inflationary bear, that will last to around 2014-2015. I am sure it won't be like Japan. Look at stocks like leading stocks in the US, the solid stocks, they have essentially moved flat in nominal terms for the last 10 years while deflated in real terms, in japan you had a very steep rise up to late 89 (similar to 2000 in the US), not the flat move the leading stocks in the US have had for the last 10 years. I suspect it's not that dissimilar from the 1900-1920 era, or seventies, or the 1929-1949 era, however in relation to 29, we are in 1938 now, with 2000 being 29). I think what happened after 1929, is to extraordinary and different to now, to see a repeat or anything remotely similar. Most of those who are bullish now, are essensially betting that this is like the 73-74 bear, that's what guys like faber and hamilton is thinking. Most of those who are bearish are thinking Japan. Compared to what faber is normally preaching, I think his optimism is like perma bullishness for him to be. Some of the stocks I was buying, was initially thought to be short term trades, but it also happen something, when it goes up 10-15 %, then suddenly it's up 50 %, then as now, with some shares I have more than 100% , I think that's what Livermore was talking about. I am not filling up with leverage as I go, and increasing my average prices, while keeping a reasonable distance to margin calls, but I suppose that that's what the guys like Livermore was doing.
  7. I think it's far better to buy something that is cheap, and then wait for it to get expensive enough, or to price, instead of time it.
  8. I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr Partridge kept on telling other customers (when they asked if they should sell and take a profit), “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but also the intelligence and patience to sit tight. Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end. Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  9. I think's banks are a very good bet. However, not only one share, but maybe 3-4 different shares.Some quality and some bargains.
  10. Certainly special with news from India. I think I differ from the idea that this is a dead cat bounce. To much cheap credit, cash on the sidelines, steep yield curves, maybe an upturn in the real economy around 2010, it's the perceptions that controls the fundamentals, not the fundamentals that controls the perceptions, to the degree people think. Or you think in terms of that the old bubble is broken, then this is a bear, or you think that the bubble have only corrected, then it's still a bull.
  11. Etrade went really well today. THis is looking more and more like a bull. I think cash on the sidelines was at a 20 year high 1 month ago. It should be support for quite a move.
  12. Silver will probably outperform gold, we are in the equity bull phase of something that will resemble 1975-1976, then around 1-1,5 year from now, silver will start to rise.
  13. I think emerging markets from 03-07 pretty mutch tracked the 82-87 bull. I think emerging markets will go further into a boom, sort of like the us markets after 87. The us markets, ftse, dax will behave as after 1975, at least thats what I think.
  14. Stocks like these are certainly having a ride. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TTM#symbol=TTM;range=5y Stocks that I think will do well , even they have risen a lot, are financial stocks , like etrade.
  15. I just bought a new set of wheels for my car, and I am extremely greedy,so maybe this is all going to my head and things will crash down again. However, a lot of the foreign stocks are back at the pre Lehman collapse levels. Thats very bullish.
  16. Very much buy on dip today. It's certainly a more mixed market now, than during the earlier sell off phases.
  17. Dollar, and US stocks stronger at the same time. Could mean more of a 1982- or 1990-s, or 1950's like boom, with dow 20-30000, widening profit margins, instead of the stagflation and dow 10-12000 scenario, who knows, mixed signals.
  18. Oh:) Looking at the stock market in India, China so on, it's just like we are climbing back up to the level that was prior to the Lehman collapse. I think we will climb these levels, one by one, until things are back to a bubble levels in emerging market's seen in oct 07. I think it will go on even further. Such as with the Dow jones from 1988-2000. The 1987 then, was not the end. Here is one stock that are showing those symtoms. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TTM#cha...ource=undefined When we debase our currencies, people invest in those emerging countries. that lifts emerging market currencies, and as their consumers have low debt, they can borrow and create "growth" in the economy, Like in the US you need 4 dollars of debt to get 1 dollar of GDP growth, in those countries it's far more efficient, the central banks there have no problem to tempt people with low interest rates. The debasing going on in our economies, is like a transfer of wealth to the emerging economies.
  19. I have seen everyone of his videos, he is one of the best out there, however, I think we are quite a big into a bull. It's in a way like 74-75, even if so many things are seemingly so different. The main difference is that then there was a reflation phase with a weak dollar controlled by the fed, now it's kind of shadow banking controlled, and the central banks, trigger this shadow banking activity, or liquidity bubble through debasing the currencies. I think the main beneficiaries could be emerging economies.
  20. We are now at the exact same point in the cycle as in late December 74, early January 1975, around a month from the second leg in the double bottom, the first leg was november 21. The Bears won't notice, but even if the earnings seasons becomes horrible, stocks will climb, simply because we are in a bull-market and the market will be discounting an improvement in the third or fourth quarter earnings as it climbs the wall of worry, it's that simple, many stocks was so cheap 1 month ago, that it's virtually impossible for those stocks to fall further, the risk tolerant animal spirited psychopath like buyers that will be making it uncomfortable for the shorts going forward, at least I think so. I'm all in. Most stocks and indexes bottomed out in November and have been climbing since then, but the bears won't even notice that, as they don't look at individual stock charts. The mini bubble in treasuries will probably burst, and US treasury yields could start heading up, and you get a weak recovery, that later will turn into stagflation. I assume the recovery in emerging market's will be much stronger.
  21. It's like the seventies. Gold and housing have moved up at the same time. The correction was like the correction in the mid seventies, at that point cash had lost around 2/3 of it's value. It's the same now. It's not housing that went up, it was that real wages, and the value of paper money that went down. It's clearest in the US, where the dollar went down as much against gold, as emerging market's went up relative to the dow, or even less than house prices rose. The house price bubble was just a symptom of high inflation. It had to correct, but not down to where it came from, as the money is out there in circulation.
  22. It does not surprise me. Remember, over the longer haul, houseprices only goes up. Bricks and mortar don't increase in the same pace as the printing press throws out new Pound bills.
  23. I had a nightmare the dollar collapsed in just a few seconds. How fast can things really blow up, in our current system if things gain momentum?
  24. In the absence of good data, the low volume type of decline caused by short selling is going to go on, as there is to little buyers and few genuine sellers, when the news is bad and uncertainty high the only buyers are the few sharks waiting for the blood to really flow, but any good news, and the market's can rally a lot, I think the fundamentals always win over technicals. Maybe the earnings season is going to be horrible, worse than anyone have thought. What I find interesting is that inflation is heading down everywhere. Normally that should be good for stocks, at least somewhere in this world.
  25. I actually think the Euro looks vulnerable towards the Pound. I assume the ECB will start some kind of quantitative easing later on.
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