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Everything posted by carseller

  1. You are right. I lightened the load a bit the last two trading days, however, judging from my emotional reaction afterwards, that have never failed me so far, it was just a correction in a bull-market, as I tend to regret my sales, if they was wrong, and I did regret heavily now. So therefore, I think it's a bull. The last trading day, I noticed, most of the junk stocks in my portfolio were back to their trend lines upwards, and they did not move down with the market, some slightly up, they were certainly meeting resistance levels. Another sign it is a bull, is that the market still needs some fear, to climb the wall of worry.
  2. This was what I was into. I think, it might have further to go. But if it does, then I think there will need to be a new bubble on it's way.
  3. The short sellers are in complete control of today. My portfolio was peaking 50 %, down to around 32,5 % now, just in the matter of a few days, should have went out when my instincts told me to, it will be interesting to see if this is a correction, or resumption of bear market.
  4. I think what happened today, was that you first had a "low quality stock" sell off, then a buy into high quality later into the session.
  5. I think the correction or end of rally, if it becomes greater than 12 % is coming now. How long can it stand off? I don't think much longer.
  6. I think Alan Greenspan wrote in his book that long term interest rates would start to trend higher. That is what in my opinion is on the verge of happening. China let the RMB get stronger, or more correctly our currencies get weaker, because we print a lot of money and China stops to recycle, so the RMB appears to get stronger. The higher yields could be seen as negative to the market and house prices, but it is not, as long the real interest rates are in the negative territory.
  7. I think this is around 55 days into a bull-market, in the next 3 weeks there will be the start of a 7-12 % correction, before it advances further. I that will the buying opportunity for those who missed the boat.
  8. This now the longest winning streak since the recovery from the 73-74 bear market. Back then, the market rallied for around 75 days or so. now it's only around 55. So in a sense, the biggest correction in the recovery phase of a bear market in history so far, have been around 12 %, so if this market correct more than 12 %, then it might have been a suckers rally. But if there only is a correction of less than 12 % it should be a bull.
  9. I think the best trades now, might be the stocks that are a bit "late", mostly oil stocks, like COP.
  10. I could tell him to wire it to some guy in the UK, however, it is seems his generosity limits itself to sending his family on boring family cruises, I have never gotten a cent from him. No prostitutes or fun. I am unsure about the market now. It looks as the shorts are attacking as good as they can, but the beast just wont die yet.
  11. I have a nephew, that is quite rich, good for around 100-150 millions. He to is bullish on the market. What to make of it? I don't know. Shanghai, Brasil, a lot of markets are above 200 day moving average. That have to be bullish, right? Maybe it is a signal these markets will be leaders?
  12. On oil. On FT short view today. Mirrors bond yields. It's a challenge there. Sort of an impossible situation. Oil rise, yields rise because people think recovery, or at least inflation, but stocks down, because investors think higher yields are bad for recovery. it think the fed should print to keep yields down, and also introduce wage and price controls. That's the way out of the situation.
  13. Yes I did ,and several other stocks, my overall gain now peaked at around 50 % earlier today. Now it's certainly heading down. I think you are right that smart money could be going out ,but that dumb money is still driving it higher. However, who knows. However, I think the market looks stretched. If it's a bull-market, a correction should not matter, but the fundamentals are not improving that much, it's rather that it's deteriorating at a slower rate. If it is a bull or a bear market rally that have been, I don't know. I think we are going to find out in the next 2 weeks. The yield curve is looking very, very steep. That should suggest a recovery, a sluggish one, however, I suspect some countries such as China could have a more rapid recovery.
  14. I have noticed that there is a lot of profit taking in a lot of the stocks I have, but new money seems to be coming in so it's still moving higher, my overall gain now is around 45 %, but the pattern is visible. A lot of dumping going on, but the beast just don't want to die. At least not yet.
  15. What are we talking about here? some kind of moving average?
  16. I think there should be a brutal correction any time now. I'm having more than 200 % gains on many positions now. This can't last, but I feel I can't take a profit as I feel this is a bull-market.
  17. Some have been talking about Goldman Sachs, and a possible black swan when they dump all, as they was a rather big player, around the march low. However, that is more typical of a bottom, in the sense that Goldman is just much smarter than everyone else, and know when to increase their risk profile. Goldman would not do that if they believed in a suckers rally. Who is intelligent, Goldman Sachs or all the people at around various blogs that could not even get through the first of many interview rounds for a job, probably not even get called in to an interview. at Goldman Sachs. It's no accident that a guy that many speculate will be the one to take over Berkshire, comes from Goldman Sachs.
  18. I mostly look a the yield curve, and the bond market. If the market believe enough, recovery will happen. Probably accompanied with lot of inflation not that far into the distant future, like 1-2 year. The fed, have things right where they want. It's so stable that they can fine tune the economy now, through quantitative easing if they need it.
  19. It's not a suckers rally. The march low will not be retested. I am sure of that.
  20. This is a bull-market. The fundamentals are improving, not deteriorating. Look at the Consumer confidence numbers. It bottomed out in march. That's really all there is to it.
  21. From the blue collar guys working on the production line, the word is they are upping the activity. It started around the turn of the month.
  22. Well, the news is bad, but better than espected. And I recall reading all about how every analyst was far behind on the curve, from guys like Albert Edvards. Well. It turns out he was wrong. They was instead overly pessimistic.
  23. I think the 4 bears suck. It's off. Right now, it's like after the bottom in 74, or after the low in 03 ,(dotcom 00, bottom 03, housing in 05, bottom in 09 ? ), you will see it if you compare each individual chart. And of course in around feb 72 , homebuilders peaked, bottomed in dec 74.
  24. He, kind of makes a promise that goes like this: hold on, and we will stimulate and inflate like crazy, and make the banks solvent again.
  25. You have that. of course I am just holding my long position, so far, the best positions is at around a 130 % gain, I am not switching. However, it could be it is like 30-31, however, with all the attempts to crack up the yield curve, by the central banks, we can break out of it any time, like recent house prices statistics have shown.
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