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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by carseller

  1. I'm pretty sure that stocks will rise further, and that we are in a bull-market since march. I think perhaps there is around 4-5 years to go for emerging market's, gold, etc..
  2. I must say I am glad I sold out almost all my high beta stocks 1 week ago, including etrade. ( I think that stock is providing a good entrance level now) However I am still bleeding. I am at around 45 % cash at the moment. So what are you thinking now. Ready to plunge in and use this as a buying opportunity soon, or still bear-market?
  3. All the high beta stocks have corrected down to something that could be an upwards moving trend.
  4. I am feeling optimistic today:) Maybe the market will be in buy buy buy mood again.
  5. I am quite sure the market might bounce today, or it might not, however, independent of that I am quite sure we are going down again, as between February and March. I don't think this is just a short correction, but something more severe. I can feel it in my body, that the market is going down fast and hard going forward.
  6. I was thinking about the seventies. The fed had all the opportunity in the world to kill inflation several times, in 1971, in 1974, in 1977, but they did not want to kill inflation and never did. I doubt they will do it now. What killed inflation after 1981, is just that the money flowed into US stocks, and the dollar, from commodities, and hard asset countries. The fed never really killed inflation, or credit inflation, that is all just an illusion. The genuine US bull, will come when US stocks, and US assets are so cheap in real terms, that, money will naturally just shift into the "soft US assets again", and that can take some time, this is nothing the fed really controls. They can just pump, pump and pump, and when US assets are cheap enough the shift will occur, even if the fed goes on pumping.
  7. There was a normal recession, turning into a near depression, because of the mishandling of the big casino banks, now it appears, the fed have managed to turn it back to where it was before lehman, and that the market is pricing it as a normal recession, that is fading. Sort of turning deflation into stagflation. I think this is a cyclincal bull-market in a secular bear market for the dow jones, and a secular bull market for emerging markets.
  8. They did monetized treasuries under WW2, and I think it can happen again. That seems to be the way to get a boom going again. In a dream I had Ben asked me what was the price of silver. So I assume, inflation is going to become a problem.
  9. One thing I do suspect is that the fed have started, or soon will start to buy across the 10 and 30 year, to peg mortage rates at around 4 %
  10. It's really back to the trend of managed dollar devaluation. At least so far. That will in turn cause a resumption in the trend from 2003-2007, especially emerging markets can only "function", as long as the US is in a secular bear market for both the dow jones, and the dollar. Given the nature of these evens, that is 16-18 years, and the trend so far have been visible since 2003, I think there is a good amount if time left for the dollar to weaken. The mistake I think is to think of it as an irrational bubble, cause it is not, it's investors seeking out opportunities, when the developed world is simply like a rotten apple. So to invest in something you don't know, makes sense, when what you do know, stinks.
  11. I think the lack of direction in the market, perhaps, is a bit like the market in the 1946-1949 era. That would mean a double dip recession (this comes when yields on gov bonds threaten recovery, and the fed have to hike short term rates, and you after they are lowered get the genuine secular bull), that creates an US bull market, that could remind of 1982, but is more from 1949-1965. However, yields on government bonds, price/book on the dow, is more like 1965-1970, so that speaks for an era of stagflation. A problem in this market for many, is that they are to locked up to a certain theory, and refuse to go with the flow. However, the fact that most emerging market's held the nov low, during the march low, could indicate that the trend from 2003 in emerging market's and commodities is a secular trend that still have years to go, while the "old" indexes still are in a secular bear market, but perhaps a cyclical bull at the moment.
  12. Personal expectations at 72,3 from 51,0 That's really a game-changer I think.
  13. Consumer confidence exploding, crazy, good I did not sell on lest Friday.
  14. People move money out of the US. That weakens the dollar and benefit the pound. I don't think the pound was bid up like the dollar. It seems the big short position everyone had on the dollar from 2003-2008, is simply going back into play. The reason is that libor rates are so low now, and the mess seems to be clearing. It simply means back to the trend, leading up to this, so the idea that this was 1987 for emerging markets and commodities holds so far. But I think the fed will start raising rates, but probably not before inflation really hit into the cpi, and that can take a while. I think what is happening should be good for the stock market in the US. Steep yield curve, inflation expectations up, etc...I think the dow are headed for around 9500-10500, then, stagflation. I am unsure if this will become a double dip recession where the fed hike rates, like in 1981, or 1949, or if this becomes more of a 1977, jimmy carter like event. I think inflation is coming big-time now.
  15. I think going forward now, with the low volume today, on the dow, that there might be a short squeeze coming towards the end of the day. I feel most traders are on the short side, and I think the low is in, meaning that whenever there is a drop of 7-10 % occurs in the market, there will be a buying huge momentum, and a big risk to be on the short side. However, I think the low, below the november level, was a kind of fake move, due to the extreme fear and bubble in treasuries (as I think it was), because of that, I think this correction, of 8-10 % will occur on a level that is quite higher than the november low, meaning that the dow, perhaps will be around 8700-9000, when this correction occur.
  16. I made a great call with the 5 % risk that the dow goes below 8000 Actually. It just shows how poisoned you get, from the moves in the market. This market is really messing with my head. I hope iceland is not the model. Their exchange went from around 1000 in around 2000, to around 8500 in 2007, down to 258 now.
  17. In my opinion what could happen, for there to be a new crash in stocks, is for there to be some kind of currency crisis, so that the federal reserve will be forced to hike interest rates. Or some sort of bond crash. In that environment, I think it is likely that gold will perform very well, gold stocks such as ABX, have really been gaining lately, I think it could break out in an upwards move, at the same time as the stock market goes down.
  18. I think it is maybe less than a 5 % chance the dow will go below 8000 again. Now that the bubble in treasuries is over, I think it should keep rising. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225#c...ource=undefined
  19. Yes, they will respond well to money printing I think. I only have the highest quality financial stock in the US, in any volume, gain is around 80 % on that one. I espect it to pay dividend, but don't do much. really (until fed raise rates)
  20. Western stocks I like is railroads, coal, oil, gold, and that whole group of agricultural commodities, as inflation is just getting started. The stocks, and those commodities will increase with yields, while the average markets in the west, will simply stagnate when 10year notes reach around 6 %, and be a total disaster in terms of gaining what inflation cause of damage to the stocks. The long end of the interest rates now similar to around 1950.
  21. I think, that the FTSE is in a secular bear market, that's for sure. We now are at a point similar to 1938, 1908, or 1975, While the sensex, shanghai, brasil, russia, etc, they are all in secular bull's, the norwegian exchange is sort of halfway bull, and halfway bear, the same with australia. Gold is in a secular bull. Commodities are in a secular bull. What is happening is in one way similar to what happened when Japans economy crashed in 1989, they followed a cheap yen policy that helped fuel carry trades elsewhere, like the bubble in the FTSE from 1995. only since 2003, it have been with the dollar. It's a alternative way to play out a deflationary depression. DEflation is not good, as it hurts the ruling class, and who wants that? So much better to have stagflation so the rich can get richer, while the working man get squeezed, atleast the worker will have work, and won't try find a new hitler, as happened when unemployment was above 30 %. Who cares if standards of living fall through the floor, someone cutting someones hair, might get squeezed both ways, well it is good we can have electric cars, because we cant afford gaz. That's the trend from now on, that the fed will print, and you have this carry trade towards emerging economies, while the dow is going flat at around 10-11000 maybe, while the economy have stagflation. it's a 16 year trend that I think started in 1998, and will last towards towards 2014, maybe even 2016, when the next secular bull start. The FTSE, Nikkei, DAX and DOW jones, is all on the same trend. What will give best profit from today in 1 year compared to the index values now? Thailand, Norway, Brazil, India, Russia, UK, US ,JAPAN, Germany, Gold? I rank them like this: 1 Russia, 2 Brazil, 3 Thailand, 4 China, 5 India, 6 Norway, 7 Gold, 8 Germany, 9 US, 10 Japan, 10 UK There you have my take on it. I think we can be suprised of how much they can print, without having to do anything significant about rates. I am not sure the next secular bull, for FTSE, Nikkei, DAX and DOW will start after interest rates have been raised after the coming business cycle. There might be two business cycles, even three for the emerging markets. Sort of like between 1950-1965 for the dow (for emerging economies now). However I am not sure. What seems sure however, is that decoupling is real, and is here now. So from 2014-1016, I think the stocks like Wells Fargo, again will start a more steep, rather than the flat rise, in the 1998-2014-2016 era. the 2014-2016, will hopefully be like 1982, 1921, or 1949. I dont agree on all in this video, there is no disaster coming, but shift of wealth to east is how it is, the printing press don't create wealth, it will only shift it through asia, and emerging markets. Play at the same time. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BSESN#...ource=undefined I'd say, forget the FTSE.
  22. I think there was a trend of speculation, in commodities, due to loose monetary policies, that kind of had a climax in june 2008, because the market tightened conditions itself, from fear when the big collapses came, not central banks. Now, the central banks are printing and that cause the private market conditions, or interest rates, to come down, and now it have reached a level that seems to fuel commodities like oil, again. This is the kind of speculation, and things that come up when real interest rates are negative and, I think real interest rates might be negative now. That's why suddenly Irans president as again on the news, calling for 90 dollar oil as a nice level, in this environment of unstable paper currencies as he say, and some pipelines in Nigeria have much more attention in the market than the fact that the world is virtually swimming in oil a the moment. AS this bubble from back then, fires up again, with something that look like some kind of recovery, central banks must hike interest rates at some stage and get inflation under control, however, it takes time for the inflation negative real interest rates cause, to reach into the CPI numbers, and get the central banks attention. Once inflation psychology takes hold, it might take very high interest rates to control it. Maybe this situation is like from 1977-1980, I do not know. Maybe it is like the short period between 1980-1981, or before the second dip in the double dip recession. Maybe it is like 1975, maybe it is like 1971. Who knows. But negative real interest rates, cause all sort of bubbles and distortions. oil service companies like SLB went 2000 % in the seventies, and around 3-400 % leading up to 75, same as now I think, so what we are heading into might look like the late seventies.
  23. In my opinion, the trend that was evident until june 2008, is kind of repeating. Plus that there is some kind of cyclical recovery built into it. Wildly inflationary. When the libor is less than 1 it seems the market really go nuts with all the cheap money.
  24. Libor 0,82, lowest in 03 was 1 %, now it's really starting to slosh around liquidity.
  25. I think this stock is one that will perform well: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EK#char...ource=undefined It's around some sort of double bottom now.
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