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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by carseller

  1. Very interesting, the way I read this fundamentally is that this last drop, even the earlier levels did not hold, it's really the bank sector dragging the other sectors, so I assume that if there is some good bank news, nationalization or anything, this may very well be the bottom. The gold / oil ratio suggest oil is oversold, gold is overbought, there was more oil usage, in the US, it surprised on the upside last week. That is really the first good news I have seen from the US, and that the inventory levels of housing in the worst places seems to be heading down. I have some stocks that are down a lot, I thought them was cheap when I bought, but it seems it's a bargain now. This stock is seeming to be at a bottom, I really have no idea. look at the numbers: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SOL I'm considering doubling down on some stocks I have significant losses on. PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.09 Price/Sales (ttm): 0.54 Price/Book (mrq): 0.64 Market Cap (intraday)5: 326.17M Enterprise Value (23-Feb-09)3: 577.90M Return on Equity (ttm): 29.56% Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): 153.50% Total Cash (mrq): 99.44M Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.723 Total Debt (mrq): 351.17M http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LDK#cha...ource=undefined P/E: 2 I mean, solar stocks are some of the most risky, but I definitely see a future in alternative energy, and if risk aversion goes away, I think solar stocks are likely to get a pretty good boost. A thing that I don't know is technical, maybe you know, is that this last leg down, is less vertical...It's more sideways/down, while forming the double bottom., and I think that is bullish. I like this to : http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NLC#cha...ource=undefined It's warren buffet's latest buy. water treatment, apparently a growth area. Morgan Stanley holds 5 %, I tend to like stocks they own, if both GS and MS holds a company it's usually a good company. An interesting feature from the 73-74 bear, is that the worst companies got hit hardest on the second leg, while the good companies was already on the way up, on the second feet on the double bottom formation. Maybe that's where we are..It's really difficult to tell, I just don't see how these solar stocks can get much cheaper, unless things are going to spiral so bad, that they go bust.
  2. I don't disagree with you, these were my intitial reactions to, but I'm a little worried about one thing. In 1929, public debt hit peak at that time, and there was not a new driver. We had that this time, housing, and that kept the leverage and everything to go higher. So in regards to private debt levels, this is 1929. However, throught the last years (2000-2008, bush's president term (I don't think he was as a bad president as everyone wants to say he was), you might say that even the value of the public debt increase, in real term I think it possibly decreased by a significant amount. The last bit in this riddle. Commodity prices were far more suppressed in 1929 compared to now. But, the greatest similarity was in interest rates, rates, in the 2003-2007 boom, were as in before 1929, they were not comparable to before 1929, in the boom leading up to year 2000 (rates were higher). Rates was around the same in 1920 as in 2000. Even another thing is that this time around, it's clearly china, that have played the role the US had during the 1920-s. the US is more like germany that went bust. Now, this is truly difficult, yes my thought is this is like 1938, or 75. However, if nobody want's any more leverage, as have been the solution all the time in the past, then I don't see a light in the tunnel. I have found a couple of stocks from the portfolio of george soros, that I feel are in a bottoming process, as the speed of the decline have gotten less and less, and now seems stable. The russian stock are in the same trend as union p, and is just cheaper. It have to bea possible 10 bagger for soros to buy anything in russia I think. See what he have sold out, compared to what he have bought and increased. I have faith in Soros, he even made 10 % in 2008. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=49418 This russian stock I like, is selling at 2 times 2006 net income I think. I have also put in UNP, both of these positions are new to soros: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MTL#cha...ource=undefined Am I being paranoid here, or does you guys agree that the speed of the loss is in deceleration, and that it looks like it's bottoming out? I read an article from the FED about 1929. It basically concluded the stock market was cheap, I'll post the link here later. The market was cheap in 2007, however not in 2000. That worries me. So the market was cheap in 1929, however, that pricing of cheap, was not cheap when the limit of willingness to take in private debt was reached. It was cheap, had it been a 1987, not a 1929, I think the limit for taking on private debt is important. From the list in that article. I only found 2 companies, that I still see around, that was CP (railroad) (none of the american railroads is around anymore), and GE. Total market cap of CP today is 5 times the price at the 1929 peak. The passenger part of CP from then is cut off. I don't think CP is very well run, and they are not rising much since the early 80-s, however, I think that means the infrastructure, is rather cheap. around 1 billion in 29, and around 5 billion now. Let me add again, 1929, was an earnings bubble, perhaps similar to what china have seen now, 2000 was more of a P bubble, not an E bubble.
  3. november was more like the intial crash in 29, this is more like the slower drift after 1930, however, the rise in gold, is normally followed by a rally in equities with a lag, as the new money that perhaps drove gold move into equities. Bernanke stopped the printing presses and contracted a bit, that's why it's falling now, I think they perhaps are monitoring gold, as to check the effect on their printing. The problem is that the shadow banking system have collapsed.
  4. any thoughts on the relationship between rails and gold? http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BNI#cha...ource=undefined Traditionally rails follow gold with a slight lag. meaning they should start to head up any day now.
  5. The most negative signal is that gold stocks are still behaving as if gold is not setting new highs and is in a bear market.
  6. I think a CDS contract is pretty interesting. If I buy a countract against the default of the US, how would I get paid? I think that's quite an interesting question.
  7. One thing I'm pretty sure of is that the trouble would already be over now, if Greenspan still had been in charge. I think he had some level of practical intelligence that Bernanke is lacking.
  8. It would not suprise me. I think they use Alan Greenspan. Greenspan makes a statement, as with that they should let a bank fail (before the lehman collapse), and now about nationalization. I just don't see what role an ex-central banker just have about interfering into the process, unless he have some knowledge. The thing I read was that they was going to issue loans to some private "hedge fund" like initiative that would buy up the bad assets. However I think they should nationalize the banks. It's the only right thing. Happened in Scandinavia in 1991, crisis ended in 92, the cost of the nationalisation and everything, brought short term interest rates to 20 % in 1992. I looked at the charts, looks as if Wells Fargo and JP morgan are going to make it. Citygroup and Bank of America looks like something will happen.
  9. Roubini says that the reason gold does it well now is not inflation risk, but a sovereign default risk. It's a challenge to see how they devalue the dollar, maybe it's more a sudden bang.
  10. actually 1929 is much more like 2000 in terms of silver. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CDE#cha...ource=undefined
  11. It's difficult to predict. I'm really in the mood to puke from the loss. The bubble is from 95. The confusion is in the way of thinking of the CPI. In a sense the dow is already back to 95 level, even lower. The cause of our current mess is that japan started to buy treasury bonds big time as a way to stimulate their economy from 1995. That gave the extra spice to what otherwise would had been like 1965. http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Mark...ross+Dec+08.htm
  12. The pattern now if any is stronger dollar, weaker yen, higher gold, weaker treasuries, weaker stock market. This resemble 1999, for the nasdaq. If this is the same for gold, and gold need what it needs to go high, and that's what in the cards, then you will probably see everything go down, except for gold, and treasury hedges.
  13. I am really unsure. We are at crossroads, eighter gold goes to around 2-3000 dollars with the dow collapsing to atleast 5000, as similar to the 1930-1932 experience, or the buck stop here. Who knows really. I am having emotions now similar to when the november low occured.
  14. I think the "money" need something. If the stock market is heading down to 7000-6000-5000 etc, then it needs a safe haven. That is dollar, treasuries and gold. I see some commentary making similarities between the swiss and the iceland economy, claiming the swiss franc will go down the tubes. I think that means that many will want gold. If the stock market recover around these levels. then gold is at a top for now.
  15. I don't think this is like the 1970's gold market. It's really like nothing we have ever seen before.
  16. I don't think this is looking very good. I must say I have really suffered a blow of around 10 %. I think things might go all the way down to 4000-5000 on the dow is this goes on. Meaning the bubble from 1995, will go all the way back to where it started. Unless goverment bonds starts to crack up, it's bound to happen. Today stocks down, government bonds down, the dollar down, gold neutral. It's really not a common combination. The euro is really around support levels, if those break there really is no support before 0.8 to the dollar. Only the extra geared hedges towards US government debt, not the usual hedges like railroad, but the typically even more typical hedges like fertilizer and emerging market bank shares and the like was all that did any good now.
  17. I heard the speech. It looks as Obama might want a strong dollar, I don't know any other way to interpret the complete inactivity. It's really frustrating how little they are doing. The bad bank idea they wretched was a good idea. I'm beginning to feel that the federal reserve and republicans really are forcing obama out of office after one term.
  18. That's interesting. My impression is that the oil companies have been gambling some in oil sands, but I don't think that count as new oil. They are not replacing cheap oil with cheap oil. Statoil, the norwegian north sea company replaced 27 % I think.
  19. I like the Audi A8. The aluminum gives them at least some scrap value after peak oil hits.
  20. We will all be living on the country side making marijuana in our back yard to get by. I'm telling you. It's going to get rough.
  21. The north sea are getting dry, the producers like statoil hydro and BP are failing to replace reserves. Everyones production is declining. Brazil might have some deepwater oil that can arrive in many many years. Peak oil is here, but the demand side is yet to catch up to the declining supplies to make it an issue. A lot of the peak oilers failed to think of the falling demand side. When and if demand comes back on, then the price will go very high because there is no spare capacity. It's simply fundamentals, and we have reached peak. The biggest question is when or if demand will ever get back to the level that we get a new squeeze. When production is declining 7 % year on year from most producers, meaning it's 50 % off todays levels or even much more than that in 10 years time, means that we are in for some rough times, however a lot of that will be replaced by oil sands, but it won't be cheap. In 10 years, you will not be able to buy as much fuel as you want even if you have the money. The solution could be super high interest rates to strangle demand totally, or a long deflation, but you know politicians.
  22. It's a good deal for China, on paper Seems like they are setting the stage for a later conflict here.
  23. I think todays price is the similar of around 10 dollars in 1998. The difference is mostly inflation. We had a small taste of how peak oil could feel like last year. I think peak oil have yet to hit and will reach us in 5-10 years into the future.
  24. Things like railroad, gold and many other hard assets will hold up well. Soros is betting on bank shares in emerging countries, even union pacific railroads. These things appear to be "decoupling" together with gold. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UNP#cha...ource=undefined
  25. Soros is hungarian so I think it's safe to assume he want's whats in their best interest. Probably the only nations currency he would be to proud or at least reserved to bet against as he would be sensitive to criticism. I think there are only two country in the Euro area, perhaps three that can make it through this crisis, without getting very bad inflation, and a total bond market collapse. Those countries are Germany, France and perhaps the UK. Uk is lucky in having the pound. Germany and France might be able to save the other nations, and create a bond market for the Europa area, avoiding a breakup of the Euro. But I'm not sure, and so far it looks as if Germany really are ready to go back to the Mark. IF, the Euro are going to make it, and those eastern europe countries are going to be saved from the EU, and even countries like Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland are going to make it, it's absolutely sure that they will need 1 central bond market. And that will be inflationary for Germany. It's not even sure it's going to work. But if the Euro is to have any chance of survival, Germany and France must endure a massive transfer of wealth to the poorer nations. Right now, a lot of people in Greece, and other countries know, that right now, their Euro are still holding up, but that it's only a matter of time before that might break. So they have a huge incentive to buy gold. It's really interesting if everything is really going to blow up in some sort of hyperinflation bust. Soros is really loading up on more inflation hedges in his portfolio. Everything from Union Pacific to Fertilizer.
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