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House Price Crash Forum


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About nhyujm6

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  1. yes, but what is happiness to you Zaranna?? Those THINGS that we surrond ourselves wont make you any happier. They will start owning you. Keep life simple, and enjoy the little things.
  2. Yes, and the conditions here are: People work Earn a salary Buy a house Get a mortgage Pay the mortgage Thats as simple as it gets. All im doing here is comparing property price to income. You can talk BS about how cheaper it is to live in NZ, carry trade mumbo jumbo, but the bottom line is this; THE COST TO SERVICE A MORTGAGE IN NZ IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE UK BECAUSE IR'S ARE HIGHER AND THE PRICE/EARNINGS MULTIPLE IS HIGHER THAN THE UK, BUT PRICES ARNT CRASHING. Make you think back to that Daily Mail article of a few days back that said IR's need to hit 8% to cause prices to go into reverse??????
  3. "US rates went up to 5.5% and they have the mother of all crashes on their hands already." Mother of all crashes. You cant be serious can you?
  4. As expected, no one gave me a well thought out answer. NZ interest rates are at 7.5% http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2007/2960402.html Average salary in NZ is nz$ 610 per week, or in GBP terms, only Stg 10420 per year http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-serv...n06qtr-hotp.htm Median House prices in NZ stands at NZ $327000, or Stg 116540 http://news.emigratenz.org/category/real-estate/ So the price/income ratio (measure of affordability) for NZ is 11.18 The price/income ratio for UK is 8.62 (average income = 21456, average house price = 184924; maybe slightly higher now) So house prices relative to income in NZ are more over extended compared to UK, but the fact remains, IR's are at 7.5%, nZ has a higher HP/income multuple and there is no crash. Thats telling
  5. Everyone is debunking it, because they dont know what they are talking about. In some European coiuntries, for example Cyprus, you can take out a loan of your choice in any major currency you choose. If you had taken out a mortgage in Japanese Yen, you would have payed the market rate + Libor. So until very recently you would have only been paying 2.3% interest. Further, if you had taken your loan in 2003 when the yen/GBP cross was at 184 yen to the pound you would have donw very well, since now its at 220 to the pound. Which means you would have been paying net a negative interest rate, since the gain on FX is greater than the 2.3% interest. Even now at 0.5% base rate, we are only talking 2.8%. Taking FX out of the equation all together, 2.3% interest is better than anything other currency choice. So my advice to you; make Hay while the sun shines. try putting some money into some commodity ETF's that buy/sell wheat, corn, gold, oil and other commodities. Look at the bigger picture e.g. what is happening in bioethanol in North America pressurising wheat/other commodites. Asian currencies look undervalued vs the dollar. Good luck
  6. nobody wants a used apartment. Its not clean.
  7. Why do bears think a housing market crash will happen if IR's go up, when in New Zealand Interest Rates are now at 7.5%, but there is no crash there yet? Answers like "Its just around the corner" or "its got something to do with the carry trade" dont count.
  8. Its not fair. Houses are too expensive Its Tony Blairs fault No wait, its Gordons fault Its old people, no wait its sheeple Prices havnt crashed because of immigration and fudged data on inflation No, its the carry trade, whatever that is Its my wifes fault, shes getting broody The Chavs have something to do with it Why should they get houses when we cant one? Its the medias fault. The torygraph. The express. Its them. The FTSE is down 2 points. Thats gotta mean something A cousin of a friends estate agent just went to Burkina Faso and said his grandfather said prices were crashing there Interest only mortgages are crazy but premium bonds are great arnt they Its a conspiracy The government wants to control us with huge mortgages Well, not me. Thats why im Im selling to rent No wait, Im renting to buy But its cant be long now. Interest rates are 7.5% in New Zealand now. But house prices havnt crashed there yet. I went down to a shop the other day and a milk was cheaper But bread cost more. Thats gotta mean something. The crash is just around the corner.
  9. So thats exactly how many public sector employees who wont be voting labour next election?
  10. "I just want a home" -Thats what i dont understand. There are lots of STR's here and people waiting on the sidelines to buy a home; they want house prices to go down, but they are like those who own a house: they beleive home ownership is where its at. These are the people who post good arguments why renting is a better option. Cheap etc. Heres a secret; OWNING A HOME PROBABLY WONT MAKE YOU HAPPIER It might make you feel more secure, smug, greedy, but if you think REAL happiness comes in the form of bricks, wood, tiles, laminate, kitchens etc then its probably too late for you. Heres another secret; OWNING A HOME PROBABLY WONT MAKE YOU RICH Oh, yea, you maybe satisfied with yourself once youve paid off your mortgage after 20 years of hard work. But after all the repainting, retiling, new kitchens, new TVs, new gardens, new paintings etc + interest on mortgage - inflation you may barely have your head above water. Oh yea, but what about all that equity in your house? sheesh..what if you had spent as much time as you do reading these messages learn the stock market, put the equivalent sum into stocks, earning on average 20% a year, compounded for 20 years?!!! The difference is huge. -- In other countries, likethe Netherlands, 50% of people own a property, and the other 50% dont. Yet, I spend a lot of my time there for work, and you can see, on the whole they are a happy bunch. Why is the UK obsessed with property? Im telling you, if you spend too much time obsessing about the housing market (if you want it do go up or down), its unhealthy. Wake up.
  11. Very Very Simple Question; If the ratio of 1st time buyers in the market is at or near an all time low, then who is buying all the houses the 1st time buyers should be buying (but are not)? And how? Cheers
  12. yep thats great homework you are doing. can you tell me how much google shares will be worth in September 2010, and who will win the grand national? seriously, posts like this are a waste of time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  13. "It gets them "on the ladder" and, 3 -5 years ago was the easiest and cheapest way of servicing mortgage debt until your security increased in value. If you're just starting out, what's the point of paying back capital and interest to your lender when it's going to take between 6 and 8 years before you actually start eating into the capital ? Why spend that time making higher repayments and then, when you sell your first house after 7 years or whatever to move up, take out ANOTHER 25 year mortgage. Sounds to me as though the 30 year IO mortgage that everyone is slating so much isn't that much worse than taking out a succession of repayment mortgages which'll see you making mortgage payments for 40 years anyway assuming you'll move three or four times." -Is this really the way some people want to live their life and run their finances? Is this happiness for them?
  14. I dont agree. Money is being made in ALL kinds of markets ALL the time. Its joe average on the street who enters a market at or near its peak (once they have heard all the publicity about it), but dont really know that much about what they are investing in, that typically loose out. If you are young and you want to make a REAL difference financially, the stock market is where you should be. Spend a a year first honing your skills. Have a plan and stick to it. Make hay while the sun shines. Good Luck
  15. Ok, so what im going to say is controversial, but who cares. I read this site a lot, and notice there are a lot of apparently die hard bears out there with their money parked in ISA's or premium bonds, or some iceland bank savings account waiting for the crash to happen. The reasoning must be, once the crash has happened, Bears will come in and buy properties at rock bottom prices from "sheeple" who bought during the bubble (because thats what we are in right now, a bubble). Thats the strategy. The only problem is 1. Nothing is certain. 2. A crash may happen, but it could be a long drawn out afair, with prices dropping over the next 10-15 years. 3. The Bears are missing the boat on other wealth building opportunities; like the title, they are caught in the headlights waiting for something to happen that most likely wont happen the way they expect it. In the meantime they could have (random examples from colleagues experiences) - Bought an unknown telecom stock after the Worldcom debacle when all telecom stocks were "radioactive". 3 years on, and the stock is up 800%. - Bought a property in a part of Europe where the bank allows mortgages in foregn currency. Chose a Japanese mortgage at 2.3% (bank took 2.3% as its cut, Jp IR was zero) and then Yen devalued 30% over the following 3 years. Became a very cheap mortgage. Many more examples out there of people doing well out of putting their money to work. You cant poke fun at that. My advice is become more proactive and stop waiting for a crash while your money is being deflated in the bank!
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