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House Price Crash Forum

China Bear

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About China Bear

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    HPC Poster
  1. Why would they change all the data from October 2010 to Feb 2011? Doesn't match with the previously pu8blished data?
  2. You are correct, I have been tracking this almost on a daily basis over more than one year from Property Snake. Have added a rolling 7 day and 30 day average to smooth the spikes. My guess is that it will bottom out at the 160k / 160k mark until end of January, then pick up again. See attached. propertysnake.doc propertysnake.doc
  3. No, I am not Wil Hutton (and you cannot claim your five pounds), I am working in South Africa at the moment, soon to be in your part of the world. But, agree, too much of a coincidence (I posted last night); he must be lurking here somewhere. To answer one question earlier, yes, he does talk to people....Thomas the Tank Engine, Bob The Builder (probably main source of info), and his stuffed giraffe. But definitely ignores the Fat Controller......... However, got home from work this evening, put him on my shoulders and he came out with another corker..."It's a long way up", then as I stood u
  4. My 3 year old caught me looking at the HPC home page this evening. Quote: "Dada look at the mountain (NW graph), it goes up up up then weeee down"; his finger following an imaginary drop which is close to 30% drop by mid 2009, bottoming out at 2011/12. That pretty much did it for me; totally non VI opinion, purely data driven, clearly understanding trends and cycles, and life's natural order. Anymore insights, I'll let you know...... CB
  5. How did you get the data base list formatted like that? Great. Is it something I can format with Property Bee? CB
  6. Now that is one of the most sensible statements I have read for ages. We depend on the value of our "homes" to prop up the Miracle Economy? Wealth is created from designing, developing, making and selling things, not flipping 1 bed rabbit hutches after a few coats of magnolia paint. Yup, time to get real. CB
  7. And if he did, I hope the next question was "Why"? Then the interviewer should just wait for a response - silence on the radio is vary effective. Unfortunately, they never ask the next question....................
  8. My guess, from Nationwide data, 1992/1993...........yes, this is the tipping point.
  9. Agree 100%. South Africa doing the same. They are being heavily critisised for doing this, but it will benefit in the medium / long term.
  10. Exactly, the BOE do NOT control mortgage rates or LIBOR. Good luck to them.
  11. Just seen the slug in some non descript kitchen on Sky TV babbling on about how we must ensure that first time buyers get on the housing ladder via whatever means possible, again talks about shared ownership. Surely an admission of housing being iin a boom? The slug is desperate. And clearly knows that drops in house prices will put him out of office. It's the economy "stupid".
  12. Totally agree, the PE firm want their money, and they do not care how they get it. Yes, I have seen a few drops via proprty bee. But your by line at the bottom of your comment says it all; they have never experienced bad times and someone has to explain to them in simple terms that "markets can go down as well as up". I would have enjoyed watching the maths lesson.....
  13. My guess. Head office (the private equity Co that bought them out) has made it clear: "make money or close down the coffee shops to reduce overheads". They have been instumental in driving the London market up; they will now take the lead in driving it down. They need sales to make money, and to do that their clients need to get real and accept lower offers. Strategy: persuade your clients to lower their prices now and get a quick sale before it gets worse. The media is putting out the bad news, Fuxtons have put their properties onto Rightmove en masse; these guys will have to make volume sale
  14. Fully agree, but why would they raise the asking price after the property is SSTC of On Offer? This would only be seen on the net. This would skew the RM ststistics up, surely? Therefore putting the RM report in doubt.
  15. I think this is very important. I have seen the same for the areas I am tracking. I believe this might be a strategy from RM, to mask the actual drops in asking prices. After the house is SSTC or On Offer, increase the asking price shown, then when RM do their trawl of asking prices, only the higher ones are picked up, showing a higher number from the RM monthly statistics. If I had enough money, I would challenge them in the courts for fraud. But, the good thing is the EA's are clearly in panic mode, if this is the level they will stoop to.
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