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House Price Crash Forum


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About Halliron

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    HPC Poster
  1. That's fine if you're able to time the market perfectly. However I've been lurking around these forums for a while now [ I pop in here, as well as some other sites when I'm thinking of doing anything in the property market]. back in 2004 when I was first here, people we're saying the exact same thing, and claiming a crash within a few months - instead HPI was pretty high over the next 3 years. In my case I ended up buying a flat for £250k in 2004, because I thought the arguments in favour of a crash weren't very well thought out. In 2007 I did think that things were turning, and sold for £350k. Also, in the math abovethe numbers aren't very sensible. Peak to trough average prices will probably fall around 20%, not 50%, and apart from the people who bought just as it was turning, they'll only lose out on 10% or so. That would change your numbers quite a lot.
  2. The LCDS is an index tracking a basket of loans to companies. Weakness in this index is more a symptom of general market weakness. Not directly linked to the subprime crisis, more a consequence of the negative sentiment brought about by this crisis. The recent weakening is due to poor economic data out of the US which has lead most commentators to conclude that the US is either heading into a severe recession, or is currently in one.
  3. "King's willingness to let house prices fall makes him an election liability" news_story.txt news_story.txt
  4. So what do you think he should do? invading is clearly not an option. Sending in a raid to get them out is a very risky option too as (i)It will back up Irans claims of being the innocent party, vs the western agressor, putting Iran in a strong negotiating position - exacrtly what Iran wants (ii) It will turn public opinion among other countries in the midde east further against the west, again making life difficult for Britain in the area. (iii) It has a pretty high probability of failure, similar to the americans attempt to free their hostages 20 years ago. - This will lead to more british loss of life, possibly more hostages, and be very embarresing . I can't really see any other options for them to do other than what they are doing - which is to show the evidence that that the troops WERE in Iraqi waters, that therefore is the Iranians who are in the wrong, and that furthermore, the Iranians have no right to be holding the troops. I can't see how oil comes into this at all - If oil price was the main issue here then the best option would have just been to apologise, get the troops back, situation diffuses, oil prices settle down. My main worry is that the "evidence" that they have released hasn't been as convincing as I would like for this purpose. What would be more convincing would be a satallite picture showing exactly where they were at the time they were taken.
  5. I didn't read this whole thread (seemed to go somewhat off topic?) but to the OP, see my signature.
  6. Did anyone actually read the article? Analysts said the token concessions underlined that a deal would ultimately be a Barclays takeover and that moving the head office to Amsterdam would be little more than symbolic. Operations would still be run out of London, with the executive team likely to have offices in both locations. It is not thought that there will be any significant tax implications. Mike Warburton, a partner at accountants Grant Thornton, said: "The bits that are run in the UK will continue to be taxed in the UK." Barclays' highly profitable investment banking operations will almost certainly remain based in London.
  7. How was his post trollish? It seemed quite reasonable to me.
  8. FYI by "getting on with his life", He wasn't referring to CO owning/buying a house, he was referring to him leaving this forum for a period of time.
  9. Thank's for that Boom Boom. I agree, good balanced posts like that are definately a nice change from much of the spite-filled posts which appear on this site. Good to see you back CO.
  10. No holidays, no sky no drinking? boreing sods like you are the reason house prices are so high and out of reach of normal people who like to actually enoy life. Not to mention the money you're taking out of the economy - hurting tourism workers, barmen and Rupert murdoch to name just a few. Shame on you!
  11. The picture is never black and white. arguments can be made against each of your points: 1)There are much fewer FTB, but there are still some, ie FTB later in life - at say 35, after job progression and years of saving, also those with help from their parents. 2)Oversupply is unlikely in the short term, as there is still a lot of immigration, less FTB = more people renting. Also, sadly, many BTLers are so confident on HPI, they're not even bothering to rent it out - just relying on HPI to make money. This doesn't look like changing until some leglislation is brought in. 3)Why not? Most banks wasted no time in pushing the cost onto borrowers. 4)Gorden brown has been scheduled to stop spending before, but he weaseled out of it. What makes you think he won't do it again? That's not to say that there won't be a crash, and I hope that there will be, but it's not as clear cut as you think. By a crash I mean a serious correction, back to say 2004 prices. HPI like this year for 2007, and then a "crash" back to 2006 levels while more likely, won't really change much of anything.
  12. I fully agree, although I don't see it as much on this site, as they are somewhat outnumbered. The fact is, in reality the picture is much more complicated than posts of this sort make out, and it would be nice if people acknowledged(sp.?) this, rather than leaping on any given piece of economic data, and spinning it into immediate doom for people with opposing views.
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