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About somethingfishy

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  1. It won't come as much of a surprice to realise that imoscar is a troll with a distraction taktik.
  2. Instead of laboriously counting just Crown Heights flats for sale on Rightmove to get an comparative indicator, it's easier to search RG21 for flats with & without 'sold' labels to get an idea of how things are going. There seems to be lots of Victory Hill flats coming on to the market. RG21/Flats: On 7th August 108 for sale/ 37 labelled as sold. On 9th August 115 for sale/ 35 labelled as sold. The last LR sale for CH/VH on houseprices.co.uk I could find was on 5/4/07. They should be flooding the LR database for July! Skyline Plaza looked like a game of giant Jenga when I last saw it, minus windows. There’s 2 stories to go on top, I wouldn’t stand too close if it looks a bit wobbly. It’s probably been held up by bad weather but is going full steam ahead into a market saturated with nearly new flats. From a quick sample, many flats are for offer with 'no forward chain' or with tenants. It seems only fair to help BTLs sell their flats for what they're truly worth, price reductions are clearly not needed. This week‘s marketing vision: repaint Crown Heights magnolia & put up the prices by 30k. It’s a proven winner! The flat mentioned in the previous post is now 'for sale' with both estate agents. It's not talking to yourself that's a sign of madness, it's when you start answering yourself back......
  3. Like the new hairstyle STW, what are your other 'looks'?
  4. Looks like a 100% bona fide BTL to me, registered 2003...but I'm probably a bit naive, your real name isn't Lizzy is it? Also has a BTLOptingOut. It's a bit of a rant, but no sign of impending doom. She does say that she wants to renovate instead, so her experience can't be so bad. The people who have information about how many BTLs are struggling to meet mortgage payments are also the least likely to publish it anywhere. There are lots of recent build flats for sale near to me (Basingstoke) at the moment, asking prices remain steadfastly ridiculous, but no sales in May or June according to LR. Something has to give somewhere, sometime, somehow...there's a place for us???
  5. Average population growth since 2001 has been 0.5% p.a. : http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=6 The ONS point out that migration has been a significant contributor. Russian billioniares moving to London excepted, I don't see how it could have directly contibuted to HPI. A (short) period of low interest rates & cheap credit, economic growth & misguided speculation seem more likely causes. It seems probable that rents are being supported by migrants, at least for the time they are here. Rent growth has not been that great relative to house prices, I believe, but I haven't looked for these on the ONS as I have a train to catch....
  6. Ole! indeed, but ebob was posting well beyond bored & empty EA office hours yesterday & hasn't become more provocative as his posts have gone on. Someone with a genuine viewpoint to discuss?
  7. The problem is that once you remove permanently low interest rates from the 'new paradigm' scenario, there's not a lot left. Replacing the support which had been promised by low interest rates with permanently increasing debt is an interesting argument, but a remote prospect. Wage inflation would take place or huge reductions in standard of living would need to be accepted to feed the love of property, but owning property is supposed to improve your standard of life isn't it? We do all need to live somewhere and the property market is not going to disappear overnight, but it has to be reasonably priced, which is not currently the case.
  8. Mowing the lawn sounds a much more preferable option to worrying about an uncertain future, & it's only ever going to be uncertain. The current property bubble has only really been around for a few years and may not last much longer, I hope. What's curious is that so many people think that some sort of fundamental change has happened which means it's worth taking on massive debts. It seems like a mass delusion...... the time could be right for a HPC Derren Brown conspiracy theory.
  9. It’s an interesting viewpoint which may well represent bullish thinking, but thereare other ways of looking at the situation… London is temporarily fashionable; like all fashions it will be replaced with somewhere else, especially as and when any price weakness materialises, possibly in the very near future. It’s not the new Rome and there are plenty of alternatives more central to Europe which are looking much cheaper. BTLs ultimately have to be able to justify yield achieved, but they can’t at current prices, and as interest rates rises take hold they won’t be able to take on debt unless prices fall significantly. Lending models based on income multiples are really just a rule of thumb to guide lenders towards providing sustainable loans. Historic lending multiples have developed for a reason. Counting spouse’s income in full may be fine in a society with stable employment patterns & few relationship breakdowns…...no comment necessary! Not sure exactly what you mean about compound annual growth rate - if it’s anticipating future capital growth before it’s happened to justify purchase, it sounds like a recipe for disaster though. If you look at property as just an asset, it seems overvalued relative to everything else. I think it’s partly because of the emotional connotations of ‘home’ that it’s become a speculative venture for professionals & public alike. People expect far more of it than can ever be delivered. Unfortunately it may take out a large chunk of the rest of the economy if it goes pear-shaped , I’m just hoping not to become one of the cave-dwelling bears you mentioned earlier!
  10. Either way, whether current prices can be sustained seems highly questionable. It does seem unlikely that history will repeat itself exactly, but cash flow, liquidity and solvency are as relevant now as they were in 1990. Any economic instability will test 'new paradigms' beyond breaking point unless they are supported by sound principles, but I haven't seen as yet anything resembling an explanation of what these are supposed to be.
  11. Hi Ebob, I'm interested in what the new valuation models are, and how they work. Can you elaborate or is the new paradigm that 'house prices always go up'? I agree with you that we live in a time of rapid change and conventional methods have been abandoned. I've got a sneaking suspicion that they have been temporarily replaced with bubble logic.
  12. They've all been converted into luxury flats......but we may be in luck as many of them are up for sale or rent.
  13. There’s not much evidence of sales taking place in Crown Heights or Victory Hill, or of any price reductions. Perhaps the ‘buy now or you’ll never be able to afford to own’ argument is finally disappearing and people are waiting to see how far prices fall as interest rates rise. What about this one labelled ‘sold’ in the first line of text though? http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-124...=8&tr_t=buy Hang on a moment, there’s another one, same price, same floor, identical kitchen, living room…. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-161...=8&tr_t=buy If someone else appears to have paid close to £170k for a flat, it appears your money is safe spending a similar sum on another flat, perhaps even imagining Kirstie Allsop saying you’ve ‘snapped up a bargain’ if you pay a few thousand less. You may have been mislead. Sales can and do fall through, and are subsequently re-advertised with a different agent. There is no excuse possible in this case as the agent will be aware that the flat has not been sold - they have not received any commission & it‘s no longer on their books! In no other industry would it be considered acceptable to misrepresent an asset worth say, £120k, (not £170k) as a matter of commonly accepted practice. It’s not even very difficult to audit. How many of the flats labelled ’sold’ have actually just been withdrawn from the market? We have no easy way of knowing. If an insurance company attempted systematic price manipulation as seems to happen in EAs, it would probably face large fines, be forced to pay compensation and not be allowed to sell until it proved it could manage its business honestly. Why not adopt the same approach?
  14. Many privately/Oxbridge educated members of the government were so developed in their abilities that they anticipated the little-known NHS advice to smoke cannabis & started many years beforehand. As I'm sure Dopamine would confirm, most people diagnosed with schizophrenia are just fine walking down the streets, or anywhere else. Lithium, anyone?
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