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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by twatmangle

  1. Possible causes of trebling of house prices and associated rise of BTL (1997-2006) Gordon Brown disincentivising personal pensions by robbing pension funds blind. Promotion of BTL mortgages DotCom Crash BioTech Crash 9/11 Japan's 0% interest rates propogated around the rest of the world Flooding of market with sustained cheap credit Promotion of MEW as a source of income General demographics of an ageing population Property porn TV every day Increase in student population from 4% to 40% in less than 10 years Gorden Brown being [email protected] at his job Unbelievably lax lending VI interference immigration Of course immigration contributes to tenant/BTL numbers. But so do 44 year old men called Graham who live with a turtle called Geoff, who likes the colour green. So do any number of other things. Mr.Mangle
  2. I would not have a problem if you were a member of the BNP or NF. In fact I agree with your statement that uncontrolled immigration is bad for our society, however I feel very strongly that immigrants are being made scapegoats for other people's problems. I have my own personal opinions about immigration that I haven't expressed yet but I certainly do not think that a net population increase of 185K in 2005 (this accounts for a 0.3% increase in population) has caused house prices to treble in 10 years. You can extrapolate these figures as much as you want, in either direction, but I don't think the numbers will add up. The original poster appeared to take offence that an all-party group of peers said immigration might be benificial. How dare they! A specific link is made by the OP between immigration, and reduced housing stock / HPI. I feel this is an unfounded statement and complete [email protected] Not just showing a lack of thought, but actively inflammatory. I attempted to show my opinion by use of facts, figures, an outline of a hypothetical scenario, and finally a question about pre 2005 HPI to hopfully lay this to rest. The statement itself didn't annoy me so much as the lack of thought thet went into it. It was (in my opinion and I may be wrong) a rather lame conclusion to draw. More people in the country = more demand = HPI is far too simplistic for the current situation. Also, let's not forget that the OP started a topic on a HPI forum specifically about immigration in such a way to suggest that immigration is the cause of HPI. It isn't. Under the circumstances, asking if he/she was a member of BNP/NF wasn't unwarranted. It was originally meant as a sarcastic/rhetorical question, which is just as well as they haven't answered. Mr.Mangle
  3. I'm asking if the original poster was a member of an anti-immigration organisation, for example The BNP or National Front. This question was based on the primarily anti-immigration content of their post. Simple really. Mr.Mangle
  4. Prove it! You've clearly though long and hard about this and have come to a definite conclusion. This is the sort of simplistic view I would expect from a primary school child. Try and do the maths. Follow this stereotypical example to it's logical conclusion. Although it's a simplistic exampe, it shows the point rather well: Retired couples and successful people move out of their 3 or 4 bed houses to emigrate. Total emigration: 380K left in 2005. This is a lot of empty houses. Polish immigrants move in, 2 or more to a room. Total immigration: 565K people arrived in 2005. This is a net increase of only 185k people in 2005. At the housing densities that immigrants are supposed to live, I doubt they are filling up the housing stock. As I said in my original post, immigration has very little to do with the HPI we are currently experiencing. For example the Polish seem to be getting the blame for HPI since they were allowed unrestriced movement in 2004. So who was responsible for for the price rises from 1997 to 2004? There are other far greater factors which require a little thought and research. I suggest you get to grips with macro-economics. Mr.Mangle
  5. That's because it's irrelevant in this debate. Immigration has very little to do with HPI. Are you BNP or NF? Mr.Mangle
  6. OK, Where in Romania are you based there? What is your expertise? Holiday homes? Skiing? Beaches? Mountains? Residential? Commercial? Are your staff Romanian, British or Both? What services do you offer apart from the database of properties? e.g. legal and company setup Why are there no properties on your website? If you were an animal, what animal would you like to be? Mr.Mangle
  7. Is this a wind-up or are you really stupid? The rational part of my brain tells me it's a troll. The empirical part tells me it might be for real It's close. Mr.Mangle
  8. Don't take any advice from me... my shares dropped 13% in one day (last Friday). But they recovered 0.6% today so that's all right then I sugget you buy a house and get some immigrants in. Hang on. Wrong thread. Mr.Mangle
  9. I don't know the answer.. but my only advice would be to look at median salaries rather then averages: Average = arithmetic mean (total/n) Median = the point where 50% are above these earnings, and 50% below. I think the latter is more appropriate as it isn't skewed by Premiership/millionaire salaries etc.. .it will give you an answer like "50% of people earn below 20K" instead of "average salary is 28K", both of which can exist at the same time. Mr.Mangle
  10. Q1. I don't owe anything. Q2. I reduced my debts from about 5k to zero
  11. I can't fault these facts. Firstly we have a political scandal in Poland Secondly we have 10'000 children infected with HIV through tainted blood supplies during the '80s This is hardly a reason not to invest in a country, and more importantly it is hardly the guns and bullets scenario you set out for both countries. I am in the fortunate position of having travelled extensively through these countries and learned enough to make informed choices. I chose to invest there as a result. The Romanian economy is the fastest growing in Europe. I am a part of this. The only bullet holes I saw in Romania were on the outside of a hotel in the centre of Brasov in 2001. These were resulting form the revolution in '89. Mr.Mangle
  12. Now you're just being silly. If you have a point to make, make it. Just please don't make stuff up. Mr.Mangle
  13. Don't be so negative...... I bought a foreign home this week. I think it makes sense in some circumstances. It beats putting money in my saving's account at 4.8% less tax. Pros. I can buy with cash. No mortgage, no debt. This makes me fairly immune to interest rate rises. I get a guaranteed rental income, paid in Euros. I might benefit from HPI if it happens overseas. If there's a crash, then I can weather it as I have no mortgage. I continue to get the rent regardless of the 'value' of the property. It's inflation proof. If inflation/wages go up, I can charge the appropriate amount to match. If there is significant HPI, I can cash it in without being forced to move home Cons I don't think there are many. I'm not trying to be a troll, but don't knock it until you've tried it!! Mr.Mangle
  14. Also try moneycorp.com very good rates. Have a lot of other services too. (no affiliation) MrMangle
  15. Just out of curiosity... How many people here.... Have ever been to Romania or Bulgaria? Have had a conversation with any Romanians of Bulgarians? Have any business in Romania or Bulgaria? Employ Romanians or Bulgarians? Speak any Romanian or Bulgarian? MrMangle
  16. I got married here: http://www.infolitoral.ro/english/worship/...ca_sf._mina.jpg with the reception here: http://www.cse.ohio-state.edu/~sharpm/IMAG...ANTA/casino.jpg seven course meal, for 80+ people transport provided choir 3 priests free bar flowers plus everything else..... = <£2000
  17. Most informed commentators agree that it is migrant workers that will be paying for our pensions. It's either 75% tax for us or migrants filling the gap. Let's discuss the issue a little further. Most foreign workers who are not members of the EU are not entitled to benefits at all, despite paying full tax and National insurance whilst employed. When unemployed, they get nothing, despite all of their contributions into the state coffers. As a general rule, in a society such as ours you spend the the first 20 years of your life contributing nothing, but taking huge resources specifically healthcare, and education. Then you work for 40 years paying back into the state funds. Then you have another 20 years receiving from the state then die. These migrants who everyone here fears, come over with their healthcare and education already paid for, they are at the peak of their productivity, with their home nations covering all costs to date. They work here and contribute tax and NI then go back home with some of the money they have earned. Some of it goes back to their home country with them but most is spent here in the UK. This is no different from you or I earning money then spending it on a plasma screen tv where all the money ends up in China. If you think that 50 pounds per month being sent to Poland is the cause of our 6.8billion per month trade deficit (May 2006) then you're deluded This is the one thing on this forum that I detest. Racism. So to all members on this site, please will you all stop banging on about immigration. We have been having immigration for centuries. The Irish, then the Carribean and asians. These people do all of the shitty jobs that we don't like. We invited them. There have been hundreds of thousands of Australians, South Africans and Kiwis here in the UK, working legally and illegally for decades and nobody has ever moaned about this, even when we had 3 million unemployed. Why is that. Why do white anglo-saxon immigrants have it easy, yet other europeans get such a raw deal? Racism? Of course not If you can't afford a house, or if you are in debt, blame whoever makes you feel better. But you're not getting to the real cause of your problems. Mr Mangle
  18. This is the sort of thing I meant. Perhaps I worded it wrong in the original post, I mean tax relief rather than tax back as it may have looked from the post. This is why I asked the question, a friend of mine has a portfolio of 6 BTLs. They're all on I/O mortgages. He is buying more right now. The price/rent figures I mentioned are typical for the area where he's buying. I just can't see how he's making any money. Perhaps he's prepared to take a monthly loss on the hope of ever upwards capital growth? Mr. Mangle
  19. BTL. At first glance the maths doesn't add up. Let's say a 2 bed apartment in the SE. Borrow 200k with 220k purchase price = 13k interest PA (6.5%), might increase later. That means you have to clear 1083 per month after all expenses, voids etc just to pay I/O. Renting out a home like this would get you 600-700 PCM. How do you make up the difference? What can you claim back as tax? The entire interest portion of the loan? Renovation costs? Ongoing maintenance costs? I'm asking this question out of curiosity - have no intention of getting a BTL Mortgage! Mr Mangle
  20. I know someone who has purchased an apartment for 12x his salary. I don't know the exact details, because I think it would be rude to ask, but you can bet Mom and Dad paid a hefty deposit, are guarantors and are subbing him every month. This person's take home pay doesn't even cover the interest. But he's happy as he now 'owns a house' and is 'on the ladder'. There is someone else I know who has 6 BTLs and is currently applying for more. 'Self certification innit? You can borrow as much as you want' as he told me last week. Mr Mangle
  21. I'm a FTB and I have about 100K available for a deposit. 50k is tied-up in overseas property which could be accessed after about 1 month, the remainder is instant access savings. Am I going to buy a house this year? No chance. If you walked in to a pub and the pints went up from £2.50 to £6.00, you wouldn't buy them, so why would you with a house? What's worse, using borrowed money to finance it. I just don't get it. My advice is to sit tight, wait and save in the mean time. By renting, you're saving a lot of money. As long as you don't piss it all away, and instead, make an effort to invest/save it all, then you will be doing a sensible thing. You can come back to the housing market when it all settles down again, hopefully with a nice sum of money behind you. Pity those who are tied in to 150K+ mortgages for the next 30 years. Cash is King. Huzzah!
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