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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by twatmangle

  1. OK, can you tell me which pension fund(s) will do well in the next 20 years?
  2. I'd say about -1% overall But it really depends upon where you live and what house you are looking at. Larger and better houses in good areas will not fall as much. Lower quality, worse areas, and smaller, more typical FTB properties will fall more.
  3. Yes, does look like this. Probably my fault for drifting off at a tangent. There probably are some macro economic effects as well though, for example, there are probably millions out there benefiting from low interest rates, not just those on trackers, but all those on SVR as well, probably about 40% of mortgages. I suppose that if enough people feel wealthier due to affordability then it might influence the bigger picture.
  4. I can't predict the future so I'm not saying anything like that.
  5. Well, right now, people on trackers can afford to massively overpay and reduce their term, possibly up to a decade off and this makes it into a short term argument. However, I concede that most will view it as free money and instead they will probably buy holidays, cars, pay off unsecured debts etc. As an example, I have a 25 year mortgage, but could easily pay it off in about 7 years if I wanted to. The reason why I am not doing so is that it is fixed at 4.5% for 5 years. My savings are in non-sterling assets that are appreciating against Sterling by far more than that rate. Affordability is important in many cases.
  6. Depends if you can overpay and thus reduce the term.
  7. Some things in this article don't add up.. The judge is quoted as saying "This is a bizarre case. I must be the most experienced person in this building for burglary and in 26 years I cannot remember a case where burglars have taken a young child with them to carry out a burglary. I really can’t". Yet it then says they weren't on a charge for burglary, but for criminal damage to the locks and windows. Burglary charges were dropped. Then it says Dediu, who only speaks broken English, said "I got into the house and started to tidy up and put things in the bin. I put all the rubbish outside. The house was a mess. It did not look as if anybody was living there. Then at 5pm this man came home and called the police. We were arrested and were taken to the police station. I want to work and pay my bills. I don’t want any free money. I just wanted to save money and not pay rent. I don’t earn very much, only about £150 a week." That's some broken English. Perhaps they paraphrased him.
  8. My Grandparents' first house was a 3 bed townhouse/terrace My parents' first house was a 3 bed semi My first house was a 4 bed detached Am I smarter, did I work harder, did I have it easy compared to them? Everyone's story is different.
  9. Nope, still don't get it. If you sign a rental contract, honour it. If you can't pay, then you shouldn't have signed in the first place. If you could afford it, and now can't because you've lost your job, then you need to do something about it. But to arbitrarily choose not to pay is just plain wrong. As we keep being told on here, rents have barely risen in ten years, renting is the smart thing to do and BTLers are clueless idiots. If renters are the winners, then why the reluctance to honour the agreement? If it's so one-sided in the renter's favour, then why the problem?
  10. Translated into English: They have worthless degree from former Polys, in a pointless subject, perhaps scraping a 2.2. Have travelled to a few stag-night titty-bars in Eastern Europe on Ryanair and think they've seen the world, and therefore think themselves more intelligent and superior than their elders.
  11. If you sign a contract, why shouldn't you honour it? If you don't like it, don't sign it. The worst that can happen is that you leave, or renegotiate after 6 months. Is it really worth breaking the law and risk being sued for breach of contract, and lose your deposit etc? Seems a bit silly to me.
  12. More like £50K for this one... Martin Aircraft link EDIT: actually £42K is quoted. Seems like deflation to me after all.
  13. I heard yet again that we are 'at the cusp' of cold nuclear fusion technology. They've been saying that for years. I remember doing an o level project on this in the '80s, about Fleishman and Pons. Cathodes, anodes, palladium and deuterium or something. Fear not though, the personal jet pack is on sale. So Tomorrow's World wasn't all ****.
  14. There's plenty of people out there with cash, and/or high earnings, or simply people that have paid off their existing mortgage who can take advantage of cheap properties with new, low-risk mortgages. These people, with collateral and larger deposits and incomes will compete with FTBers for cheap properties and mortgage deals and will win. You don't need unlimited credit, we saw 10% rises in 2009, in a credit drought! For the banks it's all about risk. Instead of people being priced-out they will now be competing with people who can get better credit terms. As for your second point, don't underestimate the stupidity of people. Boom bust, boom, bust. People never learn, and will always be obsessed with property.
  15. Prices won't suddenly fall by 50% overnight, clearly, it will be a gradual process to some extent. In my opinion this means that the many people in the UK with cash or equity, will pile in, in greater numbers as prices drop. People are so used to high house prices being a good thing, and any fall will be viewed as great buying opportunity. People with no mortgage, some cash or a lot of equity will get access to the mortgages and the best bargains, and FTBers, trying to raise the 10% deposit might have to wait longer and will have to time their entry into the market very carefully. In the low-end (FTB bracket) FTBers will be competing with many others, including institutions, speculators etc, not just other FTBers. BTL may soon become a genuine business opportunity once again rather than a fashionable pastime to talk about at dinner parties. With 50% fall, the maths will start to work once again. Now picture the scene in 5 years.... if you were a bank and had limited supplies of credit, who would you lend to? Someone already owning their own home as collateral or a FTBer with very little equity and no savings? Before you know it everyone would be 'grabbing a bargain' and we will be back here all over again. People need to change, people need to understand that a house should not be viewed as an investment, people should feel that it is normal to rent. Until that happens, I can't see permanently low house prices. My advice? I don't have any. But if prices do drop, take advantage of it and be happy.
  16. I don't know how they would have acted in the previous 10 years, but the Tories will always be remembered for 14% interest rates, ERM fail, house repossessions and all that. I don't think they will want to repeat that in the next 10. They will continue the homeowner-friendly policies of Brown. Look who's their housing spokesperson FFS, remember when asked about unaffordable housing, Dave replied that people should start shared-ownership to get a foot on the ladder etc.. Don't expect anything different from this lot.
  17. There's no magical answer, but you don't have to be insane or a sheeple to be buying now or in the last year, or next year. Maybe there are other factors that you haven't looked into, or haven't been made aware of. Perhaps for some people, buying now is a shrewd move for reasons other than the nominal purchase price of the house.
  18. Or maybe smarter; In ways you don't know about.
  19. Pretty much everything you said in that post is utter ********.
  20. Me too. Also, I don't go round calling people names. It's rather rude.
  21. My stash is less than 3 metres away from me. I have another stash held elsewhere, which I could get in my hands in 24 hours or less if I wanted to collect it. I don't lose sleep over it.
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