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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Maursh

  1. We bit the bullet earlier this year and made an offer on a house. The property is freehold and built about 20 years ago on a small estate. The title deeds have come through......with 14 pages of restricted covenants Although the property is registered as freehold, the developer made an arrangement with a managing agent to manage communal areas on the estate. As well as there being a caveat that the property cannot be sold without permission from the management, and the ubiquitous maintenance fees, restrictions also include such things as: - cannot park various types of vehicle on your property. (All properties on the estate have double garages) - management can enter your property without permission for various ill-defined reasons - management can post any sign they want..on your property - you must repaint your house every X years, but it must be the same colour - no modifications to your house ...and so on There is a lot now about the leasehold time-bomb, but I am wondering how many freehold time-bombs there are as well. With this amount of restriction the land is not really yours even if technically you own the freehold. Much like leasehold houses, I am forever astonished that developers are able to get away with this. Do so few people read the deeds?
  2. I been buying into equities recently. I think that cash is very vulnerable to inflation but also I think that this is where smart money has been going and they will soar going into the next couple of years. for example Unilever up 40% in last year mostly on currency. I also believe that the pound has further to fall, particularly going into 2017 and the filing of A50. I also think the EUR will come under pressure. I will consider buying GBP at parity to USD. I think that equities are the place to be because: Gold has been falling and this is aside from the problems with holding it. Aside from physical delivery, how can you be certain that you are actually holding it and it hasn't been sold several times over. I say this for any derivative, ETF or vault storage. US banned private ownership of gold during the great depression. Gov Bonds - on negative yields real yields. So far they have defied gravity, but very real risk of a crash if risk profile change. Property - been in a bubble for many years globally. Governments globally are starting to find ways to tax so no longer an attractive investment proposition. Buy only to live in. So that leaves equities, which might fall in price but at least you own something unlike debt which can fall to nothing. Personally, I don't think that they will fall because there really isn't anywhere else for money to go and equities market is small compared to bonds. I have been trying to buy good quality, low debt companies. Preferably GBP denominated global exposure with USD balance sheet (think tobacco, consumer products, drinks etc) or very high yield with good coverage, at least 1.5x (BKG, LGEN, HSBC, MKS etc). I have avoided EU as well which I think is going down the pan. If you are not confident to select your own, pick a low cost etf tracker (VUKE or VUSA eg) or robo-advisor (I use Nutmeg).
  3. Seems obvious that you contact the Landlady directly. It makes no sense to her either to evict a reliable tenant and take the risk of a void period. Also, she might have to pay letting agency fees as well as you for the renewal.
  4. Maursh


    I have seen a couple of places on RightMove recently where the price has been increased by the Estate Agent as it went STC. Definitely some market manipulation going on. This was in London.
  5. Actually, it can be done across the board (just not for years and years). The revenue is recorded at full sales price and the "goodwill" is amortized over a number of years. I am **REALLY** surprised by learning this!! What % are we talking here - something small or something that could impact the housing market like 30%. I don't know what protections are in place for housing transactions but this would most definitely be unlawful with any kind of financial transaction (such as on the stock exchange). Special provisions are made for bulk trades which might but the market out of kilter - a block trade at previous day's close might be reported after trading hours, for example. But it IS reported and a legal obligation for members of the exchange to do so. I can see all sorts of ramifications (such as money laundering) arising from this practice and I think that the FCA would be very interested to hear about incidents of it.
  6. This is a couple of weeks old, but I can't see that it was posted on here. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/worlds-biggest-sovereign-wealth-fund-111754707.html
  7. For what it is worth, we have been following the London market, admittedly east side, and it seems to have become a graveyard of unlet and unsold property this summer. I think everything is negotiable right now.
  8. Will house prices crash - trending Double peak - Jan 2016 and Brexit.
  9. A little recent anecdote from we: we have been looking in NE Essex area and made an offer on a house near Colchester for 9% below asking. It was disdainfully turned down, by the agent who obviously has us down now as time wasters The house in question is at the upper end of the market so not a whole lot of buyers out there: we are buying for cash. At the lower end of the market (<£350k), it seems all properties are sold though open days and dutch (sealed) auctions.
  10. Check your agreement, but I think that if you don't renew it becomes a rolling tenancy: this would rely on the rent staying the same of course. If you are having to pay agents fees for a new contract then why would you not find another place for lower rent if the market has fallen? (rhetorical economic question - I get that practically, moving is a pain.)
  11. Along with London and Winchester I would put Cambridge in as one of the "top ten" areas to fall the most. The locals call it "Cranebridge" because of the amount of development that has been going on there. I have also seen in the press it is a hot spot for (Chinese) "buy to leave" investing.
  12. So the property in the opening post is back on the market again (linked property has been removed): currently at £285k (reduced from opening price on this entry of £325k) 12/08/2016, Brief Description changed: **** HALL ENTRANCE **** BMA Estates are delighted to offer this four bedroom hall entrance Victorian terrace house with potential for further development located on the Dereham Road just outside of Norwich City Centre. Price changed: Guide Price £280,000 £285,000 10/06/2016, Brief Description changed: **** HALL ENTRANCE **** BMA Estates are delighted to offer this four bedroom hall entrance Victorian terrace house with potential for further development located on the Dereham Road just outside of Norwich City Centre. Price changed: Guide Price £295,000 £280,000 23/05/2016, Brief Description changed: **** HALL ENTRANCE **** BMA Estates are delighted to offer this four bedroom hall entrance Victorian terrace house with potential for further development located on the Dereham Road just outside of Norwich City Centre. 21/05/2016, Price changed: Guide Price £325,000 £295,000 06/05/2016, Initial entry found.
  13. HPI Forever I just don't get the thinking: My house hasn't sold in 6 years, I know I'll raise the price - that'll shift it
  14. Also in the news today (this week?) is that 50% of students are choosing to live at home because of costs. Also this morning, with A-level results out, heard that numbers applying to university are well down this year. Yes, a lot of pressure on student landlords!
  15. The BoEs remit is inflation and only inflation. It shouldn't matter what GDP, unemployment and so on is doing - they have one thing to target and that is 2% inflation. i can't see how a cut can be justified when CPI is falling well below their target and deflation is such a serious risk. However....having said this....before the last meeting Carney not once, but twice felt it necessary to open his mouth and no reason it seems other than to lower the pound. He hasn't done that this time which mean that either they will drops rates or he appreciates that his comments are no longer credible. Has anyone any idea whether Carney has met with Hammond yet, otherwise what has really changed int he two weeks. Wasn't the reason not to drop rates last time all about seeing what the new Government do?
  16. Wanted to respond to this first: Look up on the ONS website number of dwellings to numbers of households. You will find a 4-5% surplus. Housing shortage, frequently cited as the reason for our soaring house prices, is the biggest myth perpetrated. BTL being able to borrow under more attractive conditions than owner occupiers has concentrated wealth (e someone else paying off the mortgage) and continued rise in house prices over many years has made teh UK a magnet for foreign investors buying and leaving properties unoccupied. Going back to the original post, I think most of all a Swiss style "foriegn purchaser" tax needs to be applied, That is, those who have there main residence overseas must pay a higher stamp duty on purchase (eg flat 20%). This tax can help the government with housing benefit or whatever other social issues are caused by foreign ownership. And there also needs to be some penalty for leaving a property unoccupied. This is the biggest wastage of our time.
  17. I think BJ campaigned to win, but didn't expect to. He clearly cares passionately about the cause. Changing the status quo is hard and unexpected. However, I don't think he expected to kick his school chum DC out of his premiership.
  18. My opinion is that Gove is a fall guy to remove Boris from the leadership race. Gove has no interest in being PM, he has always said this at any rate so unless he was lying or has had a radical rethink, he in a pawn. By removing himself from the Boris ticket, he has taken his 70 or so supporters with him, so that Boris cannot run. I think that BoJo only has about 10 supporters himself - he is not popular within the conservative party. And look who has been driven to the top of the race: Theresa May. I think that we have all been played by Darce / Murdoch given Gove / VInes history. I predict Gove will pull out if he is gaining too much traction in the race or perhaps the idea is that Theresa May is so far ahead at stage one round it doesn't go to stage 2 where conservative party members can do a "Corbyn" on Boris Johnson. And I do not believe that Boris is a Bregreter either. Yes, he did look shell-shocked on that Friday morning as did many of us without a nights sleep. What I think he was shocked about was he didn't think that his campaigning would cost David Cameron his premiership.
  19. I am disappointed by the lack of support on here for BoJo. He was mayor of labour majority London for two terms and if he was "divisive" then I didn't notice it, which is more than I can say about the current choice. He also appeared to get a lot done in not much time, such as "Boris Bikes" I appreciate that he might not be everyones cup of tea, but I find him smart and erudite compared to other politicians and I think he will make a good team with someone pointy headed and unpopular such as Michael Gove. He has also shown himself to be a great strategist: 10 years ago he was hosting "Have I Got News for you " and no one would have dreamed we would be considering him as leader of this nation. His speech on the Brexit result yesterday was ministerial, in my opinion. He went out on a limb to support Brexit, possibly a political gamble but I like to believe that as a classicist it was because he is a true believer in democracy. We need a strong leader at this time and David Davies is just more of the same. Much like Churchill I think that Johnson might be a lousy leader in peace, but very very good in times of "crisis" such as now. We need someone who will take action. Oh and one of the Poshboys he is not!
  20. Short squeeze up long squeeze down I can claim predicting GBP will rise, regardless of result around post 200....
  21. Well, I don't know whether the UK is "to big to fail", but I think the premise is rubbish. Europe can choose not to trade with us "to set an example" and we stop buying 1mln German cars and start importing japanese ones... The UK / Europe trade imbalance is horrendous - I think £20bln to £12bln for April alone. There is no chance they will stop trade. Furthermore, there are other countries which will be queuing up to do deals. Australian beef farmers are one that I know of since I had a conversation with one at the weekend who is very keen for Brexit. Britain joined the EU at a time when global trade tariffs were very high. Now they are very low and we don't need trade deals to trade either, these are just arrangements politicians make among themselves for lower tariffs. We will not implode on Brexit, life will go on. British farmers can produce, we can buy bananas from the Caribbean islands once again Now, overseas owners selling up their London property....this is another matter altogether.
  22. I am of the (contrarian) view that Brexit is already priced in and GBP will go up on this result after one or two days of haywire position covering. Even if I am wrong, cheap GBP is much better for the economy.
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