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Posts posted by THE SAGE

  1. I got into a conversation with a work colleague this evening about

    the economy and house prices and we were of the same opinion

    on most areas (ie house price falls) but I came unstuck when I started

    talking about how the US dollar will affect UK and house prices.

    Can anybody simply spell out how a weak US dollar affects UK and it's

    implications for house prices?

    Help would be appreciated.

    Also thanks for comments last week re: my offer of £115k for £120k property.

    You will be glad to hear I have withdrawn offer.I am going to give it at least another 12 months before I even consider buying.Thanks guys.

  2. This site is invaluable!

    Over time it will speed up the crash.

    A few regulars may remember a few days ago that I made an offer

    on a property.

    The property was £120k and I offered £115k.I was a muppet.

    The property was what I was looking for and for anybody that resides in the

    Midlands it was in the Aldridge area of Walsall.

    With regard to current prices in the area I do not think it was

    massively overpriced hence my offer but on reflection and from

    comments from regulars on site I have withdrawn offer.

    I believe I have made the right decision.

    I am now going to wait for another six months at least.

    It is very easy to get carried away when contemplating a house purchase.

    Even a sage can lose his head.

    I will now lie low for a while as my credibility is in tatters..............

  3. Tell that to the people who bought at the peak of the last bubble. Many (if they were not evicted and thrown out on the streets during the last crash) have only just emerged from negative equity after a decade of misery, stuck in "starter" flats which they never really wanted to live in in the first place.

    Also, remember this inheritance is a one-chance only thing. Whoever died to give you that money is not going to die again. Do you really want to waste it buying a flat you don't really like and which will very probably be hit very hard in any downturn? (one-beds and "studios"[bedsits] were unsellable in the last crash, and will be again)

    ZZ your comments regarding the last crash are accurate and insightful.

    I was there and one bed flats are extremely difficult to sell in a downturn.

  4. Thanks for all the comments.

    I agree that £115k was too close to the asking price but I thought

    being as the property has only gone on the market an offer of £105k

    was too low.I have been watching the road for a while and it is the first

    house that has gone up for sale for a while so it should be interesting

    to see what happens.

    Re; the suggestions about actually speaking to the vendor- I would not

    do this as I don't believe in personalising situations such as these and it

    makes things awkward if they do come back and accept my offer and I THEN


  5. Viewed a two bed semi detatched house yesterday evening with large garden

    in suburb of Birmingham.

    Asking price is 120k and liked the property a lot and would require no work to be

    done to it.I decided to make an offer this morning of 115k as the house is in a good location and would need 50k mortgage.

    Although house has just gone on the market I expected offer to be accepted by the

    young couple who are selling.I am not in a chain.

    Offer rejected- vendor wants 118k and when I said to estate agent that 115k

    was generous in current market conditions she asked if I had seen reports of house price rises in the press recently.

    I said 115k is the offer and left it with them.

    Any thoughts?

  6. Misrepresentation/Trade Descriptions Act. A court will find that any reasonable person when they see in marketing material that something is said to be completely 'sold-out', will assume that this means to unrelated third parties, not the developer himself in a transparent attempt to give the false impression that there is strong demand for his product.

    In much the same way as somebody could record a record,buy all the records themselves,get to no.1 and proclaim themselves popstars and that they are the most popular things since sliced bread.

    This has never happened has it????

  7. Now that is one hell of a prediction.

    Tell me oh wise one, where will interest rates be in March 2006?.

    5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16% or maybe more?.

    With all the speculation and wailing and knashing of teeth that goes on over a

    possible 1/4 % increase then it doesn't take a genius to work out that it may take

    only a further 1% increase from now to completely screw the housing market for

    years to come.

    I say it doesn't take a genius to work out the above but I forgot I was responding

    to Laurejon.

  8. my personal income is on the rise.

    it all depends on what you do for a living. you just have an old fashioned job. IT was the in thing. now theres strong amounts of competition. if your in IT prepare to have to tread water and keep on a steep learning curve all of your working life.

    no woner ex -T consultants retrain as plumbers. you only have to learn plumbing once.

    there isnt steel pipe version 2.11 or a patch for a monkey wrench.

    nope. a simple life is a longer one.

    They don't use steel pipes anymore!!!

  9. Another non-sequitur. Keep 'em coming. (See other Laurejon contributions).

    Non-sequitur: A statement that does not follow logically from what preceded it


    Yes I know it is futile trying to have a rational debate with someone

    such as laurejon but you cannot help yourself sometimes.

    So as bulls are constantlly making outrageous claims I will stick by

    my prediction of 40% fall in house prices by March 2006!

  10. If you can keep your head while all those around you are losing theirs then you obviously don't understand the seriousness of the problem!!!!!!!!

    You keep your head because you will have already worked out how serious the problem is!

    That is why the majority of the contributors and viewers here realise the housing market is completely and utterly screwed and will keep their heads as they can sit back and have a beer while all the dinner party btl brigade get wekk and truly shafted!!!

  11. What is better.

    A roof over your head

    or Common sense?.

    So a roof over your head is better than common sense?

    Maybe we should stop trying to educate our young and just put them into

    140k luxury flats and we will have solved all the nations problems?

    Oh I forgot put them into the flats at interest only mortgages of course

    because we know that prices are always going to rise don't we?

    You cannot go wrong with property can you?

  12. I think we have to look at the fundamentals of the situation in Ireland. Ireland as a  country currently has a population almost one QUARTER the size of the population of London, on a land area FIVE times the size!

    Population of Ireland as of July 2004: 4 million. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ei.html

    Land area: 70,000 sq km.

    Population of London: 14 million http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London#Population

    Land Area: 16,043 sq km.

    The justification for high house prices just isn't there. If it looks like a bubble, smells like a bubble, and acts like a bubble, then it it probably is a bubble, and Ireland exhibits all the signs. I defer to the definition of a bubble as defined by Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel prize-winning economist:

    As to what the outcome will be, it all hinges on A ) whether Ireland withdraw from the European single currency and B ) if not, how they will tackle their raging inflation problem (without the tool of being able to set interest rates, this will be like trying to put out a fire with one hand tied behind your back).

    IMO they should withdraw from the euro but it is politically impossible, because of the huge grants they receive from the EU and the likely high interest rates that would be necessary following the re-establishment of a sovereign currency. In that case the only tool with which the Irish government can fight inflation  is fiscal policy (ie tax increases). By taxing investment property and promising to spend it on transport infrastructure they can be seen both to be helping FTB's and resolving a problem (ie poor transport network) which is growing increasingly critical. This should take some heat out of the Irish housing market and weed out some of the more marginal players.

    Thanks zz that's food for thought.

    My sister lives in Eire with her husband and bought in 1998 and

    even then prices were high compared to UK at that time.

    I think withdrawal from single currency would be a disaster for exactly the reasons you state so without interest rates as a tool they will have no option

    but to use tax raising measures to fight inflation.

  13. Ive not even accepted Her offer yet guys. Im trying to squeze the Bytch up a bit.

    If you are interested she is buying for her son who is 14. She also wants a 2 bed for her daughter who has a baybay.

    I dont know why I get so much flack. All I did was buy a studio, which had been on the market a few months. I paid £88000 and completed 10 months ago. To be honest, I was aware the market was changing but I simply bought the cheapest unit in the whole area thinking that as I own the first rung of the ladder I could put the rung a little higher when it came to selling.

    Its not a case of being a sheep, I was aware the market was turning and I was taking a gamble, but I surmised I couldnt loose, because if the price fell I would simply wait, but on the other hand if it rose I nick a quick profit.

    You are right now facing the same choices I did (and have several times) 10 months ago. Do u or dont u?

    Are 14 yr olds allowed to live in their own studio flats?

  14. i was in cornwall last summer and next to us was a couple from london. we all ended up 'hanging out' and over some fine 'imported' smokes we got to talking about housing and after about 30 seconds i began to feel genuinley sorry for them.

    they were a couple in the 30s. they had decent jobs with high pay. good careers and nice people. but they had to share a house with 5 other professionals. all had a room each and was paying top dollar for this. they had no chance of getting housed in fair accom. her bio clock was ticking and his wages were not going to get much higher.

    it was stalemate. and they knew it.

    no future for you........i thought.

    I saw them on telly a while ago in a drama called This Life.........

  15. Just read that Guardian article thoroughly:

    Inflation in Ireland is running at 5%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    They have NEGATIVE real interest rates of over -3%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    :o  :o  :o  :o  :o  :o  :o  :o  :o  :o

    No WONDER there is a bubble in Irish house prices!

    Good call zz

    I knew Irish prices were even higher than ours but I hadn't

    thought of the havoc negative interest rates would create.

    What do you think will be the outcome of this situation and what steps

    should be taken to address it?

  16. Vested Intersts etc. have predicted that things will pick up in the Spring

    so unfortunately Spring isn't happening this year so we go straight to Summer when things are 'seasonally' quiet due to summer holidays then onto autumn when noone is buying as they are receiving credit card statements from hols then winter when they have got Christmas coming up.

    I have foreseen the excuses already!

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