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About chashley1806

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  1. Hi RealistBear Just wanted to respond to your various posts on this thread. You seem to be incredulous at the thought that the "official" interest rate by the BoE may have peaked. What I'm about to say may not be welcome on this board, but I'm afraid that Mervyn King is right - in light of the recent global turmoil in the financial markets and the rise in the inter-bank loan rates, it is highly likely that "official" interest rates have now peaked. Couple of points to back this up. You cite later on in this threat that oil prices is rising, as are food prices. True - they certainly are. But
  2. "Get on your knees and thank the heavens for Gordon Brown for this golden economic era." Hi Property Guru Hmm - all paid for by one of the biggest borrowing binges we've ever seen (£1.2 trillion and rising). I'd happily share your optimism, if it were not for the fact that: - the consumer is visibly re-trenching, - inflation has been going up, - interest rates are likely to go up more (unpick Mervyn King's coded comments over the past few weeks!), - unemployment is rising, - banktrupcies are up, - debt distress is becoming very obvious (is it a coincidence that banks are now talki
  3. Interesting question. Here's a few suggestions: 1) Homeownership encourages social responsibility. People will take responsibility for the upkeep of their property and are likely to take responsibility for their surrounding environments (ie. neighbourhoods, local streets), by ensuring that they are well-maintained, crime-free etc. Renting doesn't encourage such responsibility because, at the end of the day, a problem with the property is some one else's problem. The same attitude can spill over for the local community. 2) Homeownership does, at the end of the day, give someone an item of fi
  4. "My own opinion is that property will not give great capital growth returns(in real terms)for a very very long time.My reasoning for this is due to the fact that even most str bears still think that it will....over the long term.Ie there are mixed views over the short/medium term of the trend,but there are far too many people,from both camps,who still think its a great long term investment.From a contrairian viewpoint,I would have to take the oposing view of the masses,which in this case would mean property will be a poor long term investment." Boxmoor boy I don't often contribute to this bo
  5. Have been lurking on this site for a bit, but just wanted to respond to this point from Michael. Bubble Trouble is right - don't underestimate sentiment! IMO, it doesn't matter what the economic fundamentals are - most people who buy houses aren't saddos like me who avidly scrutinise the latest inflation, unemployment, GDP figures when making their decision. They buy with their heart, not their head. What will guide them is the old mantra of "fear" and "greed" - and, depending on the state of the market, "fear" and "greed" can work in very different ways. When housing markets rise, then peop
  6. This thread has picked up the issue that traditional pensions have performed very badly recently, hence the subsequent BTL move to invest in property to provide provide alternative "pension" provision. Continuing this theme, I thought I would share on this board something I posted the other day on TMF which priced-out FTBs like me might like to consider, as my financial planning priorities have changed significantly in the last few weeks. At the heart of this issue is the following question - what's the easiest way to get rich: - through investing in property? - through investing in alterna
  7. Nova Interesting debate you've sparked, and always useful to rehearse the arguments both for and against a housing down-turn. In addition to what has already been mentioned, I would say that you should watch out for at least three other factors which may trigger a sharp decline in house prices: 1) The falling value of the dollar and whether China chooses to continue funding the US deficit. Whilst this issue doesn't directly impact the UK's housing market, there is increasing speculation that the US will have to raise interest rates sharply to support the dollar. If they do, then the UK ma
  8. EBB Excellent original post! I'm slightly younger than you - I'm 29 - but in similar circumstances. The questions you ask are exactly the same as the ones I grapple with. And, frustratingly, we are still not quite out of the woods to be able to say with certainty that house prices are now on long-term downward trend. But, two points in reply: 1) As Topher Bear correctly says, all indices are now heading south. The killer factor is the new mortgage lending figures. New mortgage lending has been drying up for some months now - suggesting that all is not well! 2) Ask yourself this simple ques
  9. I live near Archway - actually, it's in N19 not N6 (which is definitely Highgate territory). Have to concur with previous posters that Archway is definitely not going up in either price or desirability. I've kept my eye on the market for 1 bed flats in that area and they're dropping - by between 5%-10% so far. Regards Chris
  10. The article overlooks or ignores the effect of one crucial fact - and this exclusion undermines the whole credibility of the argument. The missing fact is that anecdotal evidence is now emerging to suggest that many recent buyers have taken out interest-only mortgages with no repayment vehicles in place to pay off the capital debt. The critical sentence in the article to justify its argument is as follows: The amount being spent on mortgage interest in relation to income is no higher than in 1997. It reached a huge peak in 1989, when interest rates peaked at 15%. But at present it is still
  11. Surveyor I share your concerns that "pent-up" FTBs may rush on to the housing market at the first opportunity just like recent FTBs over the past few years have done - therefore, why should "pent-up" FTBs behave any differently to recent FTBs? The difference, I think, is that recent FTBs were prepared to gamble that house-prices would keep in rising - in other words, that their asset would continue rising in value over and above what they paid for it. Certainly, if house prices could be assured to rise forever then this is a powerful incentive to get on the housing market as soon as possible
  12. My plan B is to invest in the stockmarket. Got a very pleasant shock yesterday when I received a statement from my bog-standard stocks-and-shares ISA saying that it had risen in value by 20% - which now beats the annualised rate of house price growth. With house price inflation set to decrease, the smart money would now appear to be going back into the stockmarket! (NB. Sadly, I'm not rolling in cash as a result of my pleasant shock yesterday because the bulk of my savings are in very safe building societies earning meagre interest. I had only started the ISA as an experiment where I was con
  13. This is an interesting article, but there are some problems with it, as follows: 1) it makes some assumptions about FTB behaviour which I can not see happening; 2) it does not discuss other factors which may have a significant influence on the future direction of the housing market. With respect to FTB behaviour, the following statements are made in the article: Charles Toner (Chairman - Barretts) predicts “lower price rises†in the year ahead, and that this would improve affordability, particularly for first-time buyers. However, immediately afterwards, Deutsche Bank says “We think
  14. uk_jash Agree with you about TMF. I too contribute regularly to that board and have noticed how bearish it's become recently. With no disrespect intended to this website, I have always found the TMF site to be very balanced. Nevertheless, over the last few weeks, it would seem quite a few former bulls on TMF are now conceding the party is over! However, I should just add that I welcome thoughts from bears and bulls alike. Whilst I may disagree with the bulls, their arguments are valid and, indeed, are essential so that I can keep testing my own theories against the views of others and the e
  15. I have two criteria to guide me (which are not necessarily connected): 1) I aim to buy when I find something that I can afford and am prepared to live in for at least 10 years. If I were to find that place in the next few days then I would go for it - ie. I'm not going to wait for the market to bottom out before looking. 2) Ideally, I'll buy when it is cheaper to buy than rent. Right now, it is far cheaper for me to rent in north London than to buy. Chris
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