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TitledTwat

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  1. All UK sales Q2 04 299986 All UK sales Q1 95 173412 All UK sales Q1 95 to Q 04 8 million or thereabouts, I’ll go through the quarters individually & update later) GLB sales Q1 95 to Q2 04 1482000 All UK looks like sales of around 33% of all 24 m properties. Do LR figures include re-mortgaging?
  2. Sledge, I’m not sure what your point is. Does it have something to do with the freedom of action of voluntary transactions between individuals to invest, speculate or keep a house boarded up should owners so wish? what would you like to see happen?
  3. http://www.landreg.gov.uk/propertyprice/in...datayear=0&rq=1 go to menu item 'Property Prices' & select your area of interest. Q2 release reflects Q1 transactions. to assess the trend more accurately we need hard data on SALES VOLUME from March to the present. Carol V has a pretty good theory. she believes prices are dictated by sales volume. if they keep shrinking prices will follow at some point. Carol, i'll post re resistance/support levels tonight. cheers. & thanks for the figures. any ideas?
  4. NORTH WEST Overall sales 1 95 19206 2 95 22133 3 95 22321 4 95 23524 1 96 19025 2 96 23995 3 96 26833 4 96 28662 1 97 22372 2 97 27918 3 97 30214 4 97 29563 1 98 22248 2 98 28045 3 98 30141 4 98 28547 1 99 22965 2 99 29291 3 99 34091 4 99 34072 1 00 26921 2 00 33862 3 00 34315 4 00 31866 1 01 26597 2 01 34466 3 01 38876 4 01 37831 1 02 31359 2 02 40802 3 02 44368 4 02 42227 1 03 32390 2 03 38132 3 03 42587 4 03 47205 1 04 35110 2 04 36181 Uptrend intact. Peak occurs 5 quarters after GLB.
  5. Carol, do these check with yours. cheers. GLB overall sales. q1 95 25203 q2 95 28725 q3 95 29875 q4 95 27868 q1 96 26136 q2 96 32533 q3 96 38960 q4 96 40707 q1 97 34355 q2 97 40785 q3 97 45145 q4 97 40209 q1 98 31864 q2 98 38283 q3 98 41515 q4 98 36574 q1 99 32588 q2 99 41723 q3 99 48809 q4 99 47021 q1 00 39133 q2 00 41819 q3 00 38951 q4 00 35678 q1 01 34391 q2 01 43335 q3 01 48571 q4 01 41801 q1 02 35940 q2 02 47548 q3 02 51912 q4 02 43143 q1 03 33583 q2 03 33665 q3 03 44015 q4 03 44594 q1 04 38798 q2 04 36643 1st resistance q2 03 33665 2nd resistance q1 03 33583 3rd resistance q1 99 32558 4th resistance q1 98 31864 q1 95 - q3 02 (peak sales) 105% rise q3 02 - q2 04 29% fall. Projected breakout by mid Nov 04 Projected trendline to 1st resistance q4 05 Q2 04 200 below trendline Lower low, lower highs The uptrend is still intact. A word of warning. The channel lines are perfectly parallel which means the trend can go on for a long, long time. try increasing the order of the polynomial to 6.
  6. L-L, interesting to hear you talk about vested interest. don't you have one?
  7. RB, impossible to forecast, nevertheless it's inevitable even if IRs decline post 2005. once prices go past a certain point even zero IRs wouldn't lift them any more. bubbles ALWAYS burst. in a society built on debt-leveraged-by-debt it's a guarantee. Carol & I are compiling some very useful LR data which reveals the big picture. if we could get the data faster we'd know sooner. one question comes to mind, if the LR is controlled by the Crown can we rely on its accuracy. if sales volumes drop below certain resistance levels, getting close now, we'll have confirmation of the major trend. there are three resistance levels quite close together. if it breaks all three we'll know enough. do you know any scrotes who work in the Land Registry? Surveyor, need to knock a load of BTLers out of the market by getting rates up enough to stab them in the throat. after that they can legislate the new REITs into being via a reformed Housing Association. the FSA will be soon regulating the mortgage industry, October i think, along the lines of the EU & i imagine stuff like self-cert scams will be stopped in their tracks & making mortgages more expensive, more heavily regulated, reducing competition etc.
  8. you may be right but bear in mind the BoE see LR figures & mortgage data before we do. if it's crunching all by itself they won't need to raise. i'm sure they have 2 or 3 raises ready to whip out to help things along.
  9. http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/BU0407/S00172.htm The Real Estate Market Has Peaked Studies of real estate cycles show property prices go up in the first four stages of the cycle, go flat in step #5, then go down for four stages, says investment consultant Charles Drace, author of "How to Survive the New Zealand Residential Property Crash". We are in stage #6 now. Therefore, anyone buying a property now must expect it to go down in value over stages six to nine. Historically, real estate values in New Zealand go down 20% to 40% in inflation-adjusted terms during stagess six to nine. Contact: Charles Drace, CFP Certified Financial Planner PO BOx 3833, [email protected] http://www.satori.cc Theory of the Property Cycleresearch by Henry George, Fred Foldway, and Charles Drace 1. Population growth and commercial growth at the early stage of the economic cycle, often supported by government encouragement/ low interest rates, creates an increase in the demand for housing and commercial buildings in excess of current supply. 2. It takes time for construction to gear up. This construction increases demand for vacant land. Bank loans are attracted to construction and real estate sales as prices begin to rise. 3. As vacant land prices rise a boom in land develops, leading to sub-divisions and speculative resale. 4. The real estate cycle peak is characterised by a high volume of subdivision and sales. 5. Construction catches up with demand and a small surplus is created. Rents can't go up enough to support the higher property costs, making new construction and rental property investment unprofitable. Land values start to adjust downwards, the bubble is broken. 6. Rising interest rates hurt confidence and profits, adding to the downwards pressure on prices. Real estate enters a 'hanging' slow phase. Asking prices stay high but there are few buyers. Building, subdivisions, and speculation drops quickly. Sometimes a panic or crash begins at this point; often the market just slowly dies. Many keep speculating during this phase as they're unaware of the market having turned. 7. Real estate starts to get marked down in price. This tends to take quite a while as owners tend to cling to mortgaged property longer than they would to other assets, like shares. Foreclosures rise but the foreclosure process is not quick. 8. Mortgage costs/interest rates are higher, rents decline, and vacancies increase. The market is dying rapidly. Foreclosures increase; speculators and investors are forced to sell as the capital value of their property decreases below lending margins and rents decrease below holding costs. 9. The bottom of the market has the following characteristics: high vacancies, low construction rates, foreclosures and no speculation. Debt must be written off and properties sell at a deep discount. Only those who entered stage 6 with little or no debt survive to buy the dramatically discounted properties. Note: leverage/borrowing is advantageous during stages 1 to 4. Mortgages should be paid off during stages 5 and 6. Cash/excess collateral should be carried forward to stage 9, then used to buy discounted properties. This use of leverage only in stages 1 to 5 characterises the professional property investor; high mortgage exposure past stage 5 characterises the amateur who loses to the professional.
  10. The best reason of all is the yo-yo factor. Markets operate in a cyclical fashion. They go up, level off then fall. Like clockwork, varying a bit in their cycles. This is the American one. Real Estate Cycles The real-estate cycle in the U.S. can be summarized with the following table: Peaks in Interval Peaks in Interval Depressions land value (years) Construction (years) interval 1818 -- -- -- 1819 -- 1836 18 1836 __ 1837 18 1854 18 1856 20 1857 20 1872 18 1871 15 1873 16 1890 18 1892 21 1893 20 1907 17 1909 17 1918 25 1925 18 1925 16 1929 11 1973 48 1972 47 1973 44 1979 6 1978 6 1980 7 1989 10 1986 8 1990 10 Real-estate values and construction have peaked one to two years before a depression, and have stayed at peak levels until the onset of the downturn. The historical evidence is consistent with the theory that speculative booms in real-estate prices and construction act as an impetus for the downturn itself. All you have to do is identify it early, leverage up to make obscene profits at other peopl'e expense, sit there till it peaks then sell. wait for the next cycle to come marching along & do it again. Carol will tell you, she’s a Land Registry stats Queen. If you’re lucky you can do this three times in your investment lifetime & make a fortune.
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