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TitledTwat

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  1. All UK sales Q2 04 299986 All UK sales Q1 95 173412 All UK sales Q1 95 to Q 04 8 million or thereabouts, I’ll go through the quarters individually & update later) GLB sales Q1 95 to Q2 04 1482000 All UK looks like sales of around 33% of all 24 m properties. Do LR figures include re-mortgaging?
  2. Sledge, I’m not sure what your point is. Does it have something to do with the freedom of action of voluntary transactions between individuals to invest, speculate or keep a house boarded up should owners so wish? what would you like to see happen?
  3. http://www.landreg.gov.uk/propertyprice/in...datayear=0&rq=1 go to menu item 'Property Prices' & select your area of interest. Q2 release reflects Q1 transactions. to assess the trend more accurately we need hard data on SALES VOLUME from March to the present. Carol V has a pretty good theory. she believes prices are dictated by sales volume. if they keep shrinking prices will follow at some point. Carol, i'll post re resistance/support levels tonight. cheers. & thanks for the figures. any ideas?
  4. NORTH WEST Overall sales 1 95 19206 2 95 22133 3 95 22321 4 95 23524 1 96 19025 2 96 23995 3 96 26833 4 96 28662 1 97 22372 2 97 27918 3 97 30214 4 97 29563 1 98 22248 2 98 28045 3 98 30141 4 98 28547 1 99 22965 2 99 29291 3 99 34091 4 99 34072 1 00 26921 2 00 33862 3 00 34315 4 00 31866 1 01 26597 2 01 34466 3 01 38876 4 01 37831 1 02 31359 2 02 40802 3 02 44368 4 02 42227 1 03 32390 2 03 38132 3 03 42587 4 03 47205 1 04 35110 2 04 36181 Uptrend intact. Peak occurs 5 quarters after GLB.
  5. Carol, do these check with yours. cheers. GLB overall sales. q1 95 25203 q2 95 28725 q3 95 29875 q4 95 27868 q1 96 26136 q2 96 32533 q3 96 38960 q4 96 40707 q1 97 34355 q2 97 40785 q3 97 45145 q4 97 40209 q1 98 31864 q2 98 38283 q3 98 41515 q4 98 36574 q1 99 32588 q2 99 41723 q3 99 48809 q4 99 47021 q1 00 39133 q2 00 41819 q3 00 38951 q4 00 35678 q1 01 34391 q2 01 43335 q3 01 48571 q4 01 41801 q1 02 35940 q2 02 47548 q3 02 51912 q4 02 43143 q1 03 33583 q2 03 33665 q3 03 44015 q4 03 44594 q1 04 38798 q2 04 36643 1st resistance q2 03 33665 2nd resistanc
  6. L-L, interesting to hear you talk about vested interest. don't you have one?
  7. RB, impossible to forecast, nevertheless it's inevitable even if IRs decline post 2005. once prices go past a certain point even zero IRs wouldn't lift them any more. bubbles ALWAYS burst. in a society built on debt-leveraged-by-debt it's a guarantee. Carol & I are compiling some very useful LR data which reveals the big picture. if we could get the data faster we'd know sooner. one question comes to mind, if the LR is controlled by the Crown can we rely on its accuracy. if sales volumes drop below certain resistance levels, getting close now, we'll have confirmation of the major trend.
  8. you may be right but bear in mind the BoE see LR figures & mortgage data before we do. if it's crunching all by itself they won't need to raise. i'm sure they have 2 or 3 raises ready to whip out to help things along.
  9. http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/BU0407/S00172.htm The Real Estate Market Has Peaked Studies of real estate cycles show property prices go up in the first four stages of the cycle, go flat in step #5, then go down for four stages, says investment consultant Charles Drace, author of "How to Survive the New Zealand Residential Property Crash". We are in stage #6 now. Therefore, anyone buying a property now must expect it to go down in value over stages six to nine. Historically, real estate values in New Zealand go down 20% to 40% in inflation-adjusted terms during stagess six to nin
  10. The best reason of all is the yo-yo factor. Markets operate in a cyclical fashion. They go up, level off then fall. Like clockwork, varying a bit in their cycles. This is the American one. Real Estate Cycles The real-estate cycle in the U.S. can be summarized with the following table: Peaks in Interval Peaks in Interval Depressions land value (years) Construction (years) interval 1818 -- -- -- 1819 -- 1836 18 1836 __ 1837 18 1854 18 1856 20
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