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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by subsidiser

  1. They're all selling up to go and live on the top of a pole like Simon Stylites? Every one of the houses being sold will be bought by someone.
  2. Is disruptive Technology going to make humans obsolete? If Tesla gets FSD right, drivers will not be needed. With other new techno coming up who else will not be needed? Has Covid been created to weed out the population in preparation?
  3. So the person leaving the inheritance has a greater incentive to make money (presumably because they like the idea of working for their offspring more than working for themselves). But what about the offspring who inherits? Surely they are brought up in the belief that they will not have to do anything other than safeguard the inheritance? And what about the effect of this on society as a whole? People then get used to the idea that Mr/Ms inheritor has wealth that is unobtainable by working - surely the incentive for them to work hard disappears? I say inheritance tax should be 100%
  4. Indeed. And in fact 1979 onwards, under the Tory Govt was a genuine attempt to make markets work better and improve social mobility. Do you remember that thay clobbered The Duke of Westminster? (edit - I thought the "multiquote" would actually multiquote - but it didn't so we're missing the reference to 1979 that was replied to here)
  5. They unleashed the forces of hell (ie engaged in some mild critisism) because he ANNOUNCED the recession. He did NOT PREDICT it. I think we're entitled to critisise the A-hole.
  6. Absolutely right. In terms of what they did the Major Govt was one of the best! But the party was fighting amongst themselves and the press was trying to sell newspapers so the Great British Public fell for the Nu Danger Party. It took a long time to destroy the economic conditions that the Major Govt handed over but the Labour Party managed it.
  7. You people forget that its a big wide world out there. Places that we in UK have to fly to are places that other people can drive to... and many of those other people are getting gradually better off. ... besides there's always Wizz Air - a much better experience in my opinion that Ryan Air. Ryan Air absolutely sucks - extra queing, extra charges and extra far away from the destinations it supposedly serves.
  8. I was watching a CNN report on Afghanistan the other day and I was dismayed to see that one of the "positive" aspects of what we're doing there was the fact that they had managed to produce their own x-factor-like talent show.
  9. They only did that because seeing another human being once in a while is an EVENT for them. (Only kidding Arran) (to some extent anyway)
  10. So where do you keep your gold? Is your mouth so full of gold fillings that you lose a couple of grand everytime you brush your teeth?
  11. Credit is not designed to make you poorer. You can use credit for whatever you want. If you use it to kickstart a business venture (not BTL OK?) then it COULD make you richer. The West is not poor and is not getting poorer (OK so the numbers are negative just now - so right at this very moment maybe it is getting poorer - but it will be back soon, very soon now). Many other countries are catching up with the West now - but that doesn't make us poorer, it makes them richer. I think your figures above (if true and I don't doubt them) show that INEQUALITY is great in these countries and a few people can afford a lot more than the majority... and that could well be the problem that is getting worse here too.
  12. Instead of taking it to the bank you should take it to a small shopkeeper or pub. They apparantly pay a premium to get hold of small change (though we're talking about neatly packaged up bundles of change here - not a few pence that you pull out of your pocket along with some chewing gum and bits of tissue paper).
  13. Robert Peston has something to say about QE - Let's assume, which isn't necessarily the case, that when the Bank of England buys gilts from investors the cash ends up in the British banking system. Well, if the cash is classified by the banks as a customer deposit, which it might be if the investor that has sold gilts to the Bank of England happens to be a relatively small and unsophisticated institution, then the banks say "yippee". Because that deposit increases the ratio of supposedly stable customer deposits to loans and advances: it reduces the banks' dangerous dependence on flighty, unreliable wholesale funds. Which genuinely matters, because - as you'll recall - one of the reasons our banking system came so close to collapse last autumn is that our banks had become too dependent on wholesale sources of funds, which dried up after the collapse of Lehman Brothers when investors took fright and took flight. Take Royal Bank of Scotland. Today, its chief executive has set a target to reduce its ratio of loans to deposits from 156% to around 100% by 2013. That will require it to reduce its dependence on wholesale sources of funds by not far off £200bn over the same time period. So when cash deposits come in, the instinct of Royal Bank of Scotland - and of other banks - is to say "thank you very much" and just sit on the cash, rather than lend it out. And there's a similar story for Lloyds. In the six months from 31 December to 30 June, its ratio of loans to customer deposits has fallen from 166% to 152%, as it has simultaneously increased deposits by £20bn and reduced loans and advances by £25bn. To reiterate, that reduction in these banks' respective ratios of loans to customer deposits is a deliberate policy. Why? Well, when Lloyds and RBS increase their customer deposits and don't lend out the cash, they becomes a much safer place for their other depositors. So a benign effect of QE may have been to increase the security of our banks for savers - even if that's not what the policy was intended to achieve. But actually much of the cash raised by institutions from selling gilts almost certainly isn't converted into customer deposits at banks. More likely is that institutions have lent it to banks and other financial companies in the form of wholesale market loans - the kind which the banks are supposed to be weaning themselves off. If that is the case, then there is absolutely no chance that banks - already too dependent on wholesale funding - will lend the money out. What's more, some of this money raised by institutions from gilt sales may have been lent to the banks in the form of short-term debt securities underwritten by the Treasury via the credit guarantee scheme. In effect, there will have been a double public-sector subsidy for fund-raising by the banks, with little apparent consequential benefit in the form of lending into the real economy. There is a final paradox in this tale of where all the Bank of England's money has leaked. The banks may have used the additional cash deposits to purchase gilts, as they've been instructed to do by the regulator, the Financial Services Authority, which wants to see them holding much greater reserves of genuinely liquid, high-quality assets. Let's look at Royal Bank of Scotland again. It has a new target to increase its "liquidity reserve" from £90bn to around £150bn. And that means it may well buy an additional £60bn or so of gilts. So one lot of gilt purchases, by the Bank of England, is simply spurring a separate lot of gilt purchases by the commercial banks - for which the government should be profoundly grateful, because it helps finance the humongous public-sector deficit, but prevents any of the cash being lent to businesses and households that may need it. Does that mean QE has been a waste of time? Probably not. Without it, there might have been even less lending into the real economy. But unless and until the banks' ratios of customer deposits to loans and advances have returned significantly nearer to parity, QE is almost certainly not going to spark much in the way of incremental lending to non-financial companies and personal customers.
  14. Well. I'm turning more bullish and I'm quite long in the tooth. I was a bull before, then a bear. Now I'm getting more bullish again (though still a neither at present). Hoping for a big V-sign from the USA.
  15. According to the TV there are lines of people awaiting soup (or similar) in the US. In Japan there are people living in an internet cafe (ie they sleep there at night) according to another news thingy I watched.
  16. That reminds me - this govt has presided over the trashing of yet another fine old traditional part of the community - the traditional pub. In place of somewhere that people of all ages (above 18) and classes (within reason) could go and mingle and socialise we now have desparate, lone alcoholics popping down to their local Tescos for a crate of whatever alcohol is cheapest that day.
  17. Good point! And humourless lefties won't allow any jokes that are not "right-on". Anything less than 100% PC is "racist" or "sexist" or "some-other-ist" that requires a public apology.
  18. Just chill out then - you're doing fine. If your a bit of a looker and a nympho to boot you could marry me and bump me off after a couple of years. Wouldn't bother me so long as it was a GOOD couple of years (if you get my drift )
  19. Ever the optimist I will give an optimistic reply. You are still young enough to have lots of options (I guess). You might not be interested in a high powered, high earning career - and if so you might be quite happy anyway with fewer material goods and more of those other things (whatever they are ). However its surprising how people can get dragged onto the career ladder and find themselves much better off than they imagined when they start their first or second job. Keep all of your options open and keep an eye out for any opportunity. Seems like we're back to the good old days where you save for as long as you like and buy if and when you like - house prices will be falling or static for a while yet. Don't sit at home saving like mad if you should be out and about.
  20. Surely it can't be Churchill - he was dead by 71 - unless he rose again to make the statement. {edit } Now I see - its not the WHOLE THING that's a quote from WC just the end bit - Doh!
  21. I'd also have hoped that the Tories wouldn't have done anything to stop pension money being invested in the stockmarket. A weak stockmarket has led to mis-allocation of money into assets. but there might've been deeper reasons for the weakness in stockmarkets (the dot-com nonsense for example).
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