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ParticleMan

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Everything posted by ParticleMan

  1. The UK needs to accept that it will have to selectively default on obligations toward the public sector. If it cannot we will economically join what was once known as Club Med. Remove the £69bn-odd worth of fiscal drag on the economy, stop looting the private sector's savings (by mandating ever-spiralling investments in public sector debt), stop displacing private sector risk-taking activity (by adding ever-widening spreads in the form of direct and hidden taxes), and the UK could turn around much as the US have done. In short the government needs to act to reduce its size and increase its productivity. The private sector has, now it's the public sector's turn. (there's another even less palatable alternative - we could also invest in a short war somewhere on the North African coast...)
  2. Broadly correlates with (and indeed is perhaps sourced in part from) the Hutton pensions inquiry... http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/indreview_johnhutton_pensions.htm (did you see how much of the bubble map is now being thieved by tenured, public sector pensioners?) And it's a complete farce :- 1/ the private sector's productivity is being mugged and can't grow GDP even at the target rates required so GDP will be neutral to negative as spending rises requiring further borrowing^wstealing from the private sector at worse credit spreads and greater interest burdens 2/ the private sector's savings are being mugged due to an unholy combination of public sector inaction (Federal inaction over the "hangover" phase of the European member government borrowing crisis is leaving global markets extremely risk averse if not entirely narcoleptic)... and (as if that wasn't bad enough) heavily pro-cyclical action... From the FT's excellent "Out of Stock" article (someone rather more ascerbic than I might underline as a sidebar that the private sector has solutions to this level of frankly incompetent dithering whilst clearly, four years after their chickens returned to the roost drunk from an orgy of borrow'n'spend, the public sector still has none) As Game Over notes, radical reform is needed and only a truly right-wing government can deliver it (because the cure is rebalancing the public sector and this means job losses through productivity gains and selective default on current obligations toward public sector employees). Oh well, at least in the absence of bread we have a circus to look forward to.
  3. Allianz, the Landesbanks, or the Bundesbank. You're Merkel. Choose.
  4. The solution seem fairly clear. With the public sector having already swallowed around a quarter of the economy in the area... http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2011/nov/21/public-sector-map-uk ... what's obviously needed here is further back-door nationalisation of housing stock. So let's give some hard-working Devon family (presumably operating at the margin) a £100k+ bung right out of national tax receipts to go turn this wonderful lifestyle opportunity into a well deserved home. (can no-one else see the link between crushing the private sector, loss of employment, and dereliction of housing? no? just me then, carry on, as you were)
  5. In a move reminiscent of Bhumibol Adulyadej's almost two years ago... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/70987/20101012/asia-capital-control-inflow-fx-forex-reserve-capital-gains-thailand-china-japan-philippines.htm ... it seems that Hildebrand's successor (Jordan) is considering what in the vernacular of the day was once called "strapping on a pair". http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-27/snb-may-introduce-measures-on-top-of-franc-ceiling-nzz-reports.html Now colour me cynical, but I strongly suspect the SNB is anticipating a good proportion of the once-in-a-lifetime trillion-Euro liquidation event... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-25/dallara-says-greek-euro-exit-may-exceeed-1-trillion-euros.html ... will attempt to cross the border much as the Von Trapp's life savings did, all those years ago.
  6. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-25/unsecured-creditors-face-losses-in-eu-plan-for-failing-banks-1-.html Sounds like a sure-fire vote winner in the current climate no? But the net effect is that the private sector is forced to buy more public sector scrip at the worst yields in several lifetimes (and in turn that private sector capital is forced to take even greater risk with far less security - ie, leverage up to even greater multiples). All this so the public sector can avoid declaring its own insolvency (and burn its creditors, and so reset, and release its stranglehold on the real economy). Unfortunately, this nonsense (and the bare-faced spin associated with it) is depressingly common in European politics at the moment. Between this, French attempts to assassinate their equities market, and German attempts to pass the buck for Euro-wide malinvestment off to the ascension states... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-23/merkel-should-know-her-country-has-been-bailed-out-too.html ... there's no soft landing for EUR crosses. Enjoy your circuses this summer; there just isn't enough bread left to go around.
  7. That and develop simultaneous energy and agricultural net energy surpluses. Oh, all that and hope that each of the overseas "investors" they're busy stealing the savings of continue deciding to not invade*. Currency is war. (* resource shortages tend to make nations generating energy and agricultural surpluses look highly attractive it times of war; the last Nordic war may have been over ferrous deposits, but I'd suggest that at the rate we're chewing up the region's electrical generation capacity Iceland's seemingly endless supply of geothermal energy might make it an acquisition target in the next round of hostile mergers)
  8. You couldn't be further off the (drach-)mark if you tried. Bankia is roughly equivalent to the pre-FDIC S&L institutions that formed the backbone of what was entitled "Main Street". What makes this event extremely interesting is that Bankia has no investment banking or trading arm; they stick to their knitting - which is the business of mortgage origination, and savings accounts (ie, just like a UK building society). The Spanish economy is evidently in dire straits.
  9. Then you're far luckier than the average HB claimant (doubly so in recent times). It's gotten to the point that even Shelter (who you referenced earlier) have a FAQ on it... http://england.shelter.org.uk/get_advice/paying_for_a_home/housing_benefit_and_local_housing_allowance/dealing_with_a_housing_benefit_shortfall
  10. Judging by the fiscal overruns year on year over the past 14 years there was a shortfall between what you were contributing and what the public sector was spending. In short - no you weren't paying for all of it (it's not personal - nobody but the "banks" were, by being forced to accumulate increasingly unsustainable positions in UK Gilts). But don't let reality derail your rant...
  11. Do you think it's possible for all renters to be renting at the 30th %ile of broad market rents? Do you think all renters currently in employment rent at or below the 30th %ile of broad rents? People who have assumed that rent will be covered under current HB arrangements (should they become unemployed) are going suffer shocks far in excess of those you appear to be working through.
  12. HB doesn't cover average full rents, as the thread has already pointed out (it pays at the 30th %ile). Yes, it's unfair that the public sector has already looted the cookie jar you've spent your career attempting to fill - nobody's disputing this. In the long run it'll help if you scrape away the assumptions you're making about renter entitlements; unemployed, every man is more or less equal in this climate; two "wrongs." sure don't make a "right", but demanding (with menaces at that) that the ever-diminishing private sector shoulder the economy in an Atlassian fashion will only accelerate the macro forces at play here. Present reality is that unsustainable fiscal policy has been cauterized, however extreme* the social impact; my own view** is that JSA (and other related benefits) will also be crushed in real terms. Simply put, the (exhausted, now shrinking) private sector can't afford to fund the public sector any further, let alone expand it. As I said before - welcome to the reboot. (* while we were all dickering over agreeing who - other than us each individually - should pay, it turns out the market found its own solution; so - hard landing it is, then) (** it's going to be a long, long time before the private sector is ready to be fooled again by the public sector's attempts to construct what fofp termed "magic money tokens" all those years ago)
  13. Aah, I wondered what it would take before you attacked the person rather than the argument. Your position - that there ought to be further private sector funded bailouts for mortgagors who find their outgoings in excess of their income - is irrational; just as irrational as is my desire to win Lotto, and just as irrational as my tongue in cheek suggestion that I ought to have my risk capital returned should I fail to do so. Continuing to state that a rational position (that the private sector cannot afford the largesse you desire) is "bitter" does not make it so. Nor, for that matter, that people who hold it are barmy, renters, or both. The price data alone suggests that insufficient numbers of people yearn to buy homes.
  14. Week after week I keep hoping I'll win Lotto. Dobbins might be bound for the glue factory, but he was a gift, and you're counting his teeth. You keep claiming something that has no basis. The shock associated with losing income is disruptive, regardless of how your portfolio is weighted (for instance, my stash of used Lotto tickets would be cold comfort I suspect). By repeating your readily falsifiable claim (renters get no special boondoggle compared to maniacal Lotto players, or to people still staring down the rump of a repayment mortgage) all you do is make yourself appear ridiculous. That's an interesting opinion. Mostly I see the shift in sentiment which allows for the lancing of the public sector boil. But as the old saw about about opinions and arseholes goes, we're all largely a product of our own perspicacity...
  15. I think it's a wonderful idea for the state to continue to put a floor bid under the price of any speculative, highly leveraged instrument. For instance there's no safety net under my Lotto tickets, and that is unfair considering that mortgage holders and bank equity holders have one. There's also no safety net under millions of subscriber's online poker habits. Or under spread betting portfolios. Heck, even Joe the fruit-stall operator has no safety net - sometimes he just goes home with half the produce. Won't anyone think of Joe, and his rotting fruit?
  16. Nigh on a decade and a half worth of repayment mortgage should have built >50% equity, no? It's not even as if we're talking any notional loss here. Doubly so considering the amount of public funds pumped directly into the aorta of land values over that same period. Is it "bitter" to say "no" to a spoiled child?
  17. Correct, there's no reason at all that JSA should continue to set a floor price for private sector rents in an economy that's throwing off jobs. The solution however is to remove the JSA bid (if there even is one, which I find difficult to imagine - the last thing the public sector will give up will be private sector involuntary contributions toward personal savings, and the public sector has just started striking about that...). Are employed people receiving HB? http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/moneytaxandbenefits/benefitstaxcreditsandothersupport/on_a_low_income/dg_10018926 ... so you'd essentially need to be living at the margin and/ or have children these days to qualify. Your posts read like you have not attempted to claim HB since the public sector bubble popped.
  18. http://www.dwp.gov.uk/local-authority-staff/housing-benefit/claims-processing/local-housing-allowance/impact-of-changes.shtml For people who generate a net surplus, like a huge weight* off their shoulders, I'd imagine. The mugging has to stop. (* it must be noted that taxing the private sector in order to maintain broad price levels in an obviously recessionary environment is a very Greek solution...)
  19. You seem disappointed that the cookie jar has been raided to pay for public sector largesse*. It's a pity you weren't more vocal on the way up - we have over two decades of lost** growth as a result (of similarly complicit silence across the electorate). Crushing twenty years or so worth of net internal demand into dust has its price - starting with loss of jobs in the private sector. It's a shame, but there you go. Welcome to the reboot. (* go have a look at what proportion of your council tax bill is currently used to service public sector pensions) (** actually "stolen" is a better word; the growth happened, it was just captured by the expansion of the state)
  20. Their S1 is reasably lucid (by the standards of such things...); friendface clearly expect to tap their mobile platform for additional advertising revenue, and to scale up in emerging markets (this is somewhat tautological given the microstructure of telecoms in emerging markets...) I'm hopeful that their attempt to do so will actually dilute the utility of what they are selling (hint, they are not selling much at all to individual subscribers - again, the S1 documents where revenue comes from...) to such a degree that the business of selling it dies at last. Call me the eternal optimist.
  21. The same way* you can tell when an elephant (or a whale) is in the room. I haven't seen anything this interesting since the day the SNB set their €1.2 target; unlike the SNB however, even MS can't print money - this hole will be duly filed in a 10Q and their shareholders will spank them for it. (* either you can or you can't; I could, which is why I observed the market creating the most amusing synthetic short positions I've ever had the pleasure to see; it was also fascinating to see that trading has evolved to the point where for a single stock with _no_ history at all, how quickly the market figures out not only where the sell side's resistance is but also where their first rung on their selling ladder is; the story you see on the tape is to a man the market joining the inside at resistance then dumping the lot just before the first target level, effectively forcing the underwriting group to offer the entire market a zero cost stock loan and infinite liquidity)
  22. There's zero doubt in my mind that the gang of 33 were net buyers at $41 and $38 target. If you have access to a level2 tape look at how the size moves and on which side of the book over the course of the day. The other thing I have no doubt on at all is that FB's backers got frozen out by the classical buy side firms - the institutional buying patterns you'd expect to see from long-only funds were completely absent after the session started. My next prediction is that MS will live to rue the day they shut the leading tech sell-side firms out of this; people are already questioning the wisdom of this approach... All in all - a highly profitable trading day - for everyone not in the underwriting group...
  23. Friendface - a social network for white elephants... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/19/uk-facebook-morgan-stanley-idUKBRE84I01820120519
  24. Actually in this instance the underwriting group took a serious haircut; they only captured 1.1% of the capital raised (more normally three times that), and the loot is being split an eye-watering 33 ways. No argument there - a truly astonishing amount of sell-side capital was vaporised today defending the line; probably negative net on the deal for most of the gang of 33...
  25. There was more size selling at $41 than buying when I lost interest, so this really doesn't surprise me. Based purely on the trading I did see however, FB looks like a very expensive mistake (on so many levels, especially for the underwriting team). Rumour has it they sold the company because even the founders couldn't work out the privacy settings.
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