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Orbital

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Everything posted by Orbital

  1. But then people who indirectly benefit won't pay and the cost becomes prohibitive to those that do. As a non-driver I still benefit from a solid infrastructure within the country (as this delivers my food etc). Non-parents benefit from children when those children become Doctors, farmers etc. Yet it is obvious that insisting for every parent to pay for school is not going to help the greater good of society. It's sad that we all seem to like the idea of altruism yet it is funny how the every man for themselves attitude often comes charging out. It reminds me of the crazy situation in the "olden days" when if you hadn't paid your shilling or whatever to the local fire crew they'd just watch your house burn to the ground. The problem with fire though is that it spreads and all the surrounding houses then go down too...
  2. Im sadly not mid twenties, but would buy - assuming I could afford it! I think you miss a big point. Those in their mid twenties probably 1) want to put down roots, stabilise their lives, and start a family (if not then buying is indeed an odd thing to do) and 2) realise that everything is cyclical. Sure things are going down, but there will be another boom. My dad bought an investment flat at the height of the last boom. He wasn't crying too hard when he sold it in 2007! OK, OK, I get the point that by timing things "better" you can have a more comfortable retirement and make more money. But you yourself imply that property IS NOT AN INVESTMENT!! If it is not an investment then why the hell does it matter? If property is a home and you want to set up a life at the age where you want and are capable of producing family then you have to pay the going rate. I could wait 10 years but I don't want to have kids in my 40s. I don't want to have a family in a rented house (I was forced to move 5 times between rented nightmare after another in my 20s). As I am now nearer to mid 30s than mid 20s I want to put down roots, I want my kids to grow up in a single nice family home (if you had to move around as a kid you will really understand why this is important to many). And crucially, and this is something not everyone can say - I can afford it! If you can't afford it then that's a different story, you dont really have a choice! Yes, I can wait, yes I can "make more money" but that sounds like an investment strategy to me? So make your mind up - is it a home or an investment? Either way in 25 years time I will be mortgage free in my fifties, by which time kids are self funding, I (I hope!!) will be at the top of my career and 25 years of inflation will mean that you having 50k more than me in the bank is pretty meaningless as I will be taking home 200k a year and have no mortgage! This assumes that my family continues to work and prosper and of course things don't always go that way - but you know what, its kinda hard to pay rent too with no income! Yet thanks to mortgage overpayments I already have a nice "holiday period" built up should the worse happen and overpayments make my "rent" go down each month! I know this strategy may or may not pay off, we live in a merciless world of random cruelty, but I think we have to go through life making certain assumptions else we'd never make any progress. Good luck to everyone whatever their strategy , I really hope it works out for us all
  3. Your lender will insist that you get a valuation and the home buyers is only a few hundred more so you may as well. The third type, the full structural, might be overkill. If the home buyer throws anything up you can always get a builder in to quote and go into the greater detail.
  4. Decide how much you are prepared to pay and stick to it. Remember EAs want to make sales happen - this is how they make money. It is not in their interest to ramp up prices and lose the sale. EAs make more money when there is higher turn over. Go and view every property on the market in that area and you'll soon get a feel for what your money can and can't get. If you see something nicer and cheaper then you might as well buy that. If you keep getting drawn back to the this house because its the best one then maybe it deserves that higher price - every other buyer will be thinking the same. Good luck!
  5. I'd be more in favour of recycling unoccupied areas in established communities. Regenerate first.
  6. And this is why reading the "daily mail" is a bad thing. They've been saying the say since day 1.
  7. Yeah I heard about this. Something about the Cricket Crunk? Or was it the Crutchet Cronch? I forget. But it's in the papers all the time. Apparently it means people can't get mortgages ! But seriously. Yep I've seen it myself having tested the water a few months back. As someone who came out with a top credit rating and backed up by a big dollop of equity I found that agents were very interested in showing me round places I wanted to see once they learnt I had secured the case! Unfortunately there just isn't anything good on the market right now so my plans came to a halt quickly. I also "anecdotally" noticed that the places that were nice and you'd want to buy were snapped up pretty damn quickly. It looks like supply and demand is a big factor again and something that HPC economics sometimes overlooks . Everything left in my area of choice is awful and nothing new to market since about April!!
  8. Here's a crazy thought, he could just live in it. I thought we were all against housing market greed? Or is that just when it's convenient for our own needs? Once you factor in the cost of moving, time and disruption I would say no way. Perhaps if it were a 1m house dropping 20% then yes, but with the sums being talked about it is to much risk for to little return imo. Edit: ^^ oh well good luck to him, hope it works out
  9. I got a massive hard sell email from an American site (I think it was the Washington Post -anyone else see it?) must have been several 1000 words detailing how the dollar was about to collapse. It featured rational sounding arguments and lots of stats and graphs (hmm a bit like this site?). And guess what, for a fee, they'd tell you where you could put your cash to be safe. I bet people are doing the same for the Euro and definitely for the pound. tbh, I'd go live as a hermit in a cave !
  10. When it isn't free, yes, most of us do, it's the law. Although personally I use free versions where appropriate. It's still so sad that many of low moral fibre have no qualms about breaking the law. They don't even think it is wrong. I've given up arguing with people on this one, save it for the judge when they finally catch up with you.
  11. Are they new builds? Well that's the problem. You don't need to be a genius to know that houses cost x money to build and developers need y money to make a profit. Unfortunately developers are indeed finding it hard to cover costs which means one thing for our housing stock... But new builds are almost their own market. Some people will only look at buying new, it doesn't make sense to me - but it is true. I was looking around about 3 months ago and saw the smallest 5 bed new build you ever saw asking >500k (Sussex/Surrey border). I saw a Victorian character property that was bigger, better location and 20% less. Crazy I know but that's the way it is. You mentioned Redhill? A good friend of mine bought a 3 bed semi a short walk fron the station, must have been in 2006. It was <200k! I live a bit nearer Croydon and you can buy flats for 350k. Again my semi was around 200k! But, for the record, EAs are not interested in ramping up prices - they would rather have high volumes of sales as they get a smaller commission but they get it much more often. Even the numpties off the Apprentice get that business rule! Actually, they don't.
  12. I've said just the same thing myself. Some people here are refusing to buy a house on the basis that, when they die, they will have £50k more in the bank. By not buying something (I assume they'd actually ideally like to buy) they are feeling smug about saving this massive amount of money (and I agree it is a lot of money) but never having what they want (or at least not until 20% of their life has slipped away). I am a natural saver myself, and I see thousands getting stacked up in my bank account and I'm sitting here thinking "what's the point". That money is meaningless unless I actually do something with it. I would like a bigger family house, I could use that money to get it, so why not? I don't thinking having £50k in the bank when I die is really a good enough reason for not going for what I want today. If I die with a big wedge in my account, I will only feel that I got things very very wrong. I want to die penniless, not a penny more and not a penny less. Just right !
  13. I am not bullish in the sense that I don't believe prices are going to go up massively or anything, but I do believe we live in a new world. My friend, a working couple with kid are looking at buying in SW London, both are grads in "good" jobs, not super, just good! They have worked hard and saved easily during their "dinky" years and are buying their first place later than normal now in their 30s. Not untypical of the modern age. Mum is educated and works. So they are looking at borrowing hundreds of thousands and at current interest rates they will pay back several 1000 each month. But, and here is the big difference, that can be covered by one persons wage, and there is still a whole other pay packet coming in. In our parents era this all had to be paid by dad. With a whole extra wage, you can spend 100% of that on a mortgage and still live comfortably. This is something that can not be reversed and will leave a legacy of higher prices. The mistake many people make on this site is to get caught up with percentages (the whole 3.5 times thing too!). Yes maybe the couple is spending 50% of their wage on a mortgage, but with a second £2500 coming in, they still have disposable income to play with. The single working parent family has to pay it all out of one wage. So if you are a single first time buyer looking for a family home, how can you hope to compete? Even as prices are coming down, the nice family houses that are coming up are selling fast. Good houses in good locations will always go to those with the most. I'm not saying that people should get married just to buy a house, I just want to point out the reality of where we are now. The whole price thing is misleading imo. I think it is more about access, I think some people here will be disappointed to find that even as prices drop, their access to property will remain unchanged (my ownership journey benefited massively from low IRs - but we know come next year this will be over, as IRs go up, affordability comes down). It will only improve by change of circumstance, or government intervention. It was sad to see some people "hoping" for a recession despite this meaning that, without their job, they are further away from their goal than ever. Joined up thinking at its finest! Anyway, good luck to all
  14. reductions aside, what's wrong with RM overall? I go on there, put in my location, select some drop downs, get a list of houses. If the headline looks interesting I'll click through and get some more pics, a floor plan, some details. How much simpler does it need to be? But yeah, they might as well just log all the reductions and let us see them because heck there are other sites tracking it and we'll use them!! I've been out in the field recently. And found that EAs were quite happy to give feedback on how long properties had been on and how much they had been reduced (as if I didn't already know !!). Guys, you need to go do some thinking is you STILL believe EAs favour anything except high turnover over property. They make money from each transaction. Would you rather have 10 sales at 200k or 1 at 250k. Get your calculators out boys! There really is little incentive for EAs to ramp up prices - why would they risk sales? You push the price up by 10k and get an extra £100. Great. Or they push the price up, it stays unsold. They get nothing. I know what I'd do (do what I can to seal a sale!) Any readers of freakonmics will have heard that all before, and in the interest of fairness, they even question the value of EAs at all: http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008...ents-revisited/ A link which will go down far better here !!
  15. Ive been making this point for years. And years. Many people here are hoping to profit and fund their reirements off the back of falling prices. Is this really any worse than those doing it off the back of rising prices? I don't think so. The HPC herd is just a smaller flock in a different field. But we're all still sheeple to use that patronising term...
  16. Comes down to the yield doesn't it? Some places have quite a favourable rent to buy ratio. It's all about research and those that do it will find a way to make a profit. The amateurs who take a punt will be the losers. But this is always true, whether it's starting up a business or backing a horse...
  17. But I don't understand why things are SO bad for those deciding to buy. I appreciate it might not be optimal, but it's better than buying peak 2007!! I bought in 2005 when everyone here said it was foolish. But look what happened. I enjoyed the longest period of stability in my life (having been forced to move 5 times in 5 years whilst in rented accommodation), my "rent" has gone down down down. It was affordable when I started, im racking up the savings now, and enjoyed several "normal" pay rises that when compounded make a big difference to disposable income. And I am now able to look at moving from a starter home to a long term home. Getting to 30, family is now firmly on the agenda. The clock is ticking, life isn't an investment to be bought and sold. But what is this hard lesson I have to learn? I often see people say that this all comes down to having an extra 100k or whatever adjusted for real terms blah blah in the bank when we die. Why do I want 100k in the bank when I die. I'd rather spend that money now thanks very much. If I die with 100k in the bank I will only think I've judged it very wrong lol. So I buy at a price at I can afford paying less than a renter. Prices go down further. So what? I'll just keep making the repayments. I could sell and put all my equity into savings? Hmm that doesn't really grab me right now lol. There are people who want to settle now and can afford to. With interest rates so low I'm looking into locking in at a low rate for 5 (maybe 10) years that see my repayments almost the same as I started with when I bought my small house. IR's can't go much further down, but they can go a long way up! Buy a cheaper house with a higher IR. And it still costs me the same. Lucky me. I appreciate the fix will come to an end but being an optimist I'm kinda hoping that 10 years of standard pay rises and a couple of promotions in that time will cover that. And I'm a big fan of overpayments which saw my "rent" drop about 15% since buying. Don't get me wrong, I am no fan of high prices, I don't want prices to go up up up, I don't think they will. I am pro people buying a house if they need somewhere to live. Having been kicked out of rented accommodation for "no reason" I couldn't imagine putting kids through that. Or putting myself through it. I've always laughed at renters who say "no problem I'll just move". No one "just moves". Moving sucks. It's the suckiest sucking sucky thing ever, everything from dealing with EAs to vendors to buyers to solicitors to the moving day. Personally, I'd pay 100k for stability and no one else can assign a value to that on my behalf. If it doesn't mean anything to you, heck why would you ever buy. I'd probably be in a hut in Thailand! Good luck to anyone trying to buy
  18. Respected and revered economists have been saying different things for the last 10 years. Which one do I believe? http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-h...ax-national.php
  19. And that's why this site has always been so blinkered. Our own little flock of sheeple lapping up whatever we are fed, just heading in the other direction. And yet we like to think we are better than that. Come on peeps, we are better than that! Lets debate both sides and see what is really happening, not just what we want to see. What's wrong with bringing some balance to the discussion. Eventually those expecting a recovery will be right, just in the same way those expecting a crash 10 years ago are now right (well kind of - we are still far off any drop that would make a difference to me ). Low rates of repossessions are surely a good thing whatever side of the fence you sit, unless you are the sort of person who enjoy seeing other people suffer. Nice. A gentle down turn with minimal impact is probably the best outcome we can hope for, I'm actually glad that some of the hardcore doom and gloom that was predicted for 2009 has yet to materialise. Time will tell of course. Best of luck to everyone
  20. cba to read through so apologies if its been mentioned. This was actually put down to a drop in remortgage activity. Normally people come off the fix/discount and look for a new deal, but with SVRs so low people are sticking with them. So activity is down.
  21. Congrats! If you like it, and can afford it comfortably then nice 1. If you are nervous still, try and make small over payments each month - you'll be suprised at how quick your monthly "rent" come down or the 25 year term shorten. This will also protect you against negative equity and ensure you don't get trapped should prices continue down. I bought my place in 2005 which was apparently on the brink of a big crash, little did people know there was another 20% rise where I live over the next couple of years! Haven't regretted it for a second as it is a fantastic house and could afford it fine. The great thing about buying at this time of your life is that (hopefully) your wages will improve as you progress your career. Small pay increases make a big difference to your disposable income. If you have a spare £100 left at the month you only need a £100 a month pay rise to double your disposable income, get a good promotion and you can get even larger amounts which you can plough back into your mortgage (pension, savings, etc) and really see the difference. Also be happy that you have got a mortgage at a historical low. This is one of the things that is driving me to move at the moment because even though I am borrowing much more, once I switch to the lower rates my monthly payments just don't really change. Which is why I firmly believe a flat 3.5x multiplier is such a ludicrous concept but there you go. I'll go from 3x to 5x but my disposable income will remain constant... (ish). Anyway, that does depend on how long you fix and what happens next ! Am tempted to go for the 10yr, by which time career progression and inflation should see me safe. No guarantees though, but you make your own luck in this life... Best of luck and enjoy!
  22. hmmm, but is this really something that happens often? Never heard of it before and I've been around a bit. Sounds like something brought out to make smug comments directed at LL. Meanie !
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