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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by HovelinHove

  1. Lol, oh the irony hearing someone like you talking about the idiot end of the population. Teehee.
  2. The Mail is a mixed bag in terms of reporting and those who never read it and use generalisations to smear all those who visit the site are very ignorant of not only the broad range of views but also its power. It is very popular in the UK because it is free. It is also one of the few sites that represents the center right viewpoint that has dominated UK politics pretty much forever. People here and on the Guardian seem to forget that outside of London and Brighton, most people are small c conservative and detest the BBC/Guardian type thinking. The Mail has writers who are dead center, and those who on the right, like Peter Hitchens. Their editor in chief is very much of the center. If you never visit the Mail, then you you will never understand what other people are thinking. There is lots of tabloid trash stories, but some reasonable analysis as well. It is the lower middle class yardstick of public opinion, just like the Sun/mirror are working class, and the Telegraph/Times/Guardian are middle class yardsticks. I look at most newspaper websites....subscribe to the Telegraph, but visit the BBC, Guardian and Mail. That way you get a better viewpoint. The comments sections are often the best bits, especially the Daily Telegraph, and I would be very surprised if senior Tory politicians didn’t have underlings reporting back on the most up liked comments on some articles. It is, as others have pointed out, a cheap way of doing focus groups.
  3. I bought a fairly huge chunk of Oil stock here, the US and Canada a few days after you. Everyone in the know was screaming how ridiculously under priced BP, Exxon et al were. Not made out like Bitcoin, but I will be holding these for years and one day they will pay big dividends compared to the price I paid. Yummy.
  4. I only make offers when I think a house is good value. This was on at 2019 prices. Still high, but not ridiculously overpriced like many I have seen of late. That is changing though. Seen lots of reductions from mid-December and oodles of “NO CHAIN”.
  5. Maybe Sunak has realised that he has created an even worse situation by doing what he did. Maybe he also realises that he is open to accusations of corruption by being seen to stoke an asset class that he has a lot of money invested in. Wouldn’t normally stop a Tory, but I think he is actually a reasonably decent man. We will see. Fatso might sit on him and make him extend it after all. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9128309/Rishi-Sunak-delay-tax-rises-autumn-end-Stamp-Duty-holiday-March.html
  6. There has been a lot of crazy behaviour, so it would not surprise me. But I think, although am not predicting, that is the last of the crazy season. Remember, if someone is a cash buyer, and they can find a house with sellers ready to move, and have solicitors ready, they can still beat the SD deadline...that will end in the next 3-4 weeks, then it will be crickets and tumbleweed.
  7. I suspect this is what happened to me last week. I offered full asking price cash, but the seller didn’t bite, and it was taken off the market a short while later. I think it might even have been my own mortgage advisor! Ultimately, I would not cry if these vermin get burned badly if things crash.
  8. Yep, as I just said, the Mail spoke to someone from the government who has said that the SD holiday won’t be extended. That should end this currently insane situation, and allow the market to correct as it should have done last year.
  9. According to the Daily Mail any idea of an SD holiday extension have been shelved. Of course Boris may overule his pet chancellor and make him U-turn. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9128309/Rishi-Sunak-delay-tax-rises-autumn-end-Stamp-Duty-holiday-March.html
  10. Article in the Telegraph. Of course people are begging for an SD holiday extension, which may come, but there is more to it than that I suspect. I think reality may well soon start to bite. I am not predicting it, because I have given up doing that, but I would be very surprised if things carry on as they have. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/property-market-nears-crisis-number-collapsed-sales-soars/
  11. Good point. The market is now frozen, and I am seeng reductions and lots of “NO CHAIN” listings. I made an offer last week, asking price after 2 days on the market. It was fairly priced which I why I went for it, but they took it off the market 2 days later. They ether think they can get more by waiting till spring or the lockdown spooked them. Couldn’t get to the bottom of it, the agent was very shifty. I think it is the former as they will buying into the headlines of house price boom etc. They may have a rude awakening come April...but they may not. I have no idea any more going to keep making offers that I think are reasonable value on homes I like, which are few and far between if I’m honest, and ignore the background noise.
  12. For the world, indeed that is true. Well, not completely, it always has been, and add in power.
  13. It actually takes a strong will to have faith when the world is full of people like you.
  14. They always say the market collapses after the last Bear turns Bull. Is this forum the last Bear? This will end in disaster one way or the other. Everything goes up and continues to go up causing vast wealth disparities, huge unemployment and civil unrest with anyone bragging about the gains from Bitcoin ripped apart by the jealous mob. It all pops, the whole lot. Confidence that is now at all time highs, is shown to be the Emperor’s new clothes, and the single biggest asset crash in history destroys the wealth of those who have speculated. I am completely on the fence as to what will happen. I have been trying to buy a house, but various events stopped me. Now, I have a different perspective on things than most. I have a strong Christian faith and pray before any big decision. Each time I have done this, things have come up that have stopped me buying a house. The same has happened with Bitcoin and some other speculative transactions I was going to make on the stock market. Now, it may be that these moves would have resulted n me being much more wealthy, but I am at peace with missing out on that if I am living a life that is in line with God’s will. I have come to realise that craving wealth, even craving security, is not righteous behaviour.
  15. I am stepping out of the market at the moment. This is the final mania in my view, and the very worst time to buy a house. Low supply, high demand, cheap credit, false sense of security from Furlough, demand bought forward, boredom. While WFH has become semi permanent, come April many will be hankering to spend 2-3 days a week in the office, and many others will have no choice. A friend of mine has a tele-sales business, and while there is no logistical reason why this shouldn’t be successful with WFH, he has noticed a massive drop off in productivity and will be cracking the whip to insure everyone is in the office 5 days a week once COVID s dealt with. SD savings will be extended in one way or another, maybe just to cover off all sales with contracts exchanged by March 31st, or a tapering of re-introduction. When furlough finally ends, and unemployment starts to rise, real IRS will rise with it, and 90% loans will be hard to come by again. However, the government will probably step in to underwrite it as they believe 100% that rising house prices is good for people and the economy. They are fundamentally evil and should be strung up by their private parts due to the social harm this policy has caused. May just buy gold and bitcoin instead.
  16. On all the other points the OP mentions, very nice summary. There is something going on, a mania for assets, and the elite are in on this so they will do all they can to pump. I am in a very different position to you, almost completely cash for a purchase, and it’s scaring the hell out of me watching Bitcoin and property. I have about 20% of worth in Gold, but that seems to be just treading water at the moment. I would never put everything into Gold or silver...everything is just so insane, and unstable. There could be one more monster crash before the CBs give money to everyone directly through CB currencies. That will truly be the end of Fiat, but will they let you trade your Bitcoins for their digital currencies. It is a very unpleasant time to be a “value” investor or house buyer, so different from what I expected back in April last year. The CBs and the governments have decided that they are happy to corrupt everything.
  17. Well I would say that January is going to be a very good month. I phoned up to a view a house put on December 22nd, it had gone already. Same with another house. I am stepping out of the market until the insanity has gone (if it ever does). It smells of a mania due to SD deadline. I am hoping things turn come February or March, but I know that Rishi ten homes Sunak will do everything he can to prop his own portfolio and those of his mates.
  18. Given that 99% of people are wearing cloth masks and we are having a very large rise in cases, I suspect the article is relevant. I wear an FFP3 mask when i am out. It is 100% effective at stopping stuff coming in, but because of the vent, about as effective as a cloth mask for stopping me transmitting to someone else. If all the elderly were given FFP3 masks, the hospitals would probably be very quiet. If everyone wore FFP3 masks and washed their hands properly etc, there would be virtually no transmission at all. They are readily available, and if you buy several you can recycle them without risk of contamination. Surgical and cloth masks are a bit crap really.
  19. Your staff are lucky. I suspect that after Christmas many will close up for good, and those that don't will do what you are doing and waiting till we know for sure that no more lockdowns are coming. I was going to buy just after Christmas, but no chance now as everything will be chaos, and try getting anyone to do anything for you. My landlord can't kick me out without 6 months notice, so I am going to sit things out for a while then maybe buy once the SD holiday thing is clear, and the direction of travel is more certain.
  20. I am looking at the chaos now, and I am starting to think 5-10% is definitely on the cards and possibly quite quickly. Lockdown 3 will finish things off I think. So many chains set up in November and December are going to collapse. Rishi will allow some sort of SD extension, maybe allowing a 6 month grace for all those who have exchanged contracts, but so many people are in deep trouble now, it won’t help. While I agree that lots of people are wanting to escape the cities, lots of people also want electric luxury cars, it’s about ability to buy...if you can’t sell your grotty flat in the city because no one is buying, then you can’t buy in the country. My gut feeling is that the wealthy cash buyer types have made their move already, and now it is just the wannabes...and they can want all they like, but if they can’t sell up, they in’t going nowhere.
  21. Agreed. One of the issues is that lenders are restricting the number of high LTV mortgages they give, so even if you have a high salary, if you don’t have 15-20% it will be hard to get a mortgage.
  22. The poster who said those buying in the 500k segment will just shrug off the SD holiday do not understand the whole gearing of deposit issue that has had a huge impact on that price range. People who previously had to put aside 15k cash from any deposit they had to pay SD, were suddenly able to get 3-4 times that extra in cheap debt. It wasn’t just 15k extra they could spend, but 60k. Having said that, if they underwrite 95% with government money, the market will go up even if they withdraw SD.
  23. Which makes the current reaction even more bizarre, It all feels like a stage managed thing to distract is from the Brexit end game or something.
  24. Yes, it really is the most wonderful time of the year.
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