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HovelinHove

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Posts posted by HovelinHove

  1. What I think is that people will just spend less on other stuff as IRs rise, which will of course cause a recession. However, given the fact that rents are rising at outrageous rates, and availability of rental housing is collapsing due to immigration, I do not see a property crash. If a house is affordable to anyone in an area where they are currently renting, they will buy. This will be especially so in the South East where there are enough well paid people to keep prices high. This is what happened to us. We were spending huge amounts on renting till 2021. When we looked at local availability of other suitable properties, there was barely anything…even less now, and prices have gone through the roof. Buying was a no brainer as our mortgage costs are half our rental costs minus the interest we were making. 

    It is a horrible situation manufactured by elites from both sides of the political spectrum. I think that buying now may be the better option rather than being at the mercy of landlords.

    Record immigration drives up rents in Britain

    IMG_1376.jpeg

  2. 6 minutes ago, henry the king said:

    The data right now is consistent with flat nominal house prices (+0% over the next year if it continues) and falling real house prices (-6% in real terms vs earnings over the next year if it continues).

    That is supported by basically every metric including HF/NW/RICS/BoE data/RM/etc

    They all say basically the same thing. 

    That is my assessment of the data. This data does not contradict this.

    I agree. I think we will see a period like that highlighted between 2010-13 which translates into real term falls. There are not enough forced sales or redundancies to cause a 2008 style crash. People who don't need to sell won't, and any reported changes will be on lower volumes and forced moves. The demand due to large amounts of immigration and low increase in new stock will stop a major crash in my view.

    House price change.jpg

  3. All good homes in our area are selling at close to peak prices. There is now nothing decent on the market. Sellers are on strike, and there are still lots of buyers for good homes.

    pubs and malls are full. Builders and other contractors still impossible to get hold of. Jobs remain unfilled. People are starting to get decent pay rises. Houses are not being repossessed.

    I don’t think prices will rise overall this year, but I doubt we will see anything more than 10% drop from peak, and when the rebound comes, if you haven’t got in, you may be locked out forever. Starmer won’t help you either.

  4. 5 hours ago, winkie said:

    Interesting, once a home is fully paid for, the car is paid for, the children are mostly independent or a financial asset not a liability......no other debt. How much does a person need to live PA, how much does a couple need to live on PA between 60 and state retirement age.......surely some will want more than others?;)

    Council tax, heating, food, car costs…even if you just have one, insurances, anything less than 30-40k and you are going to be pretty miserable.

  5. 21 hours ago, dugsbody said:

    Speaking as another gen-x I can say that some of my peers did very, very well for themselves out of the early booms. Many of them bought their flats or houses in the late 1990s or early 2000s, rode the career ladder at that time, saw their mortgages drop to almost nothing after 2009, and traded up for what are now completely, utterly, unaffordable houses to the same category of people 20 years later.

    I never did that stuff, preferring to roam the world after university, so I never benefited from cheap housing,. But a lot of gen-x made out ok. I kick myself sometimes, as I've ended up 10 years behind a lot of my peers in terms of retirement prospects, but I did have a lot of fun.

     

    That’s me. Travelled a lot when I was young, went to uni as a mature student, did a Ph.D., throw in a divorce, and I am well behind my peers. But yes, had a lot of fun, and enjoy my work, so can’t really complain.

  6. 3 hours ago, morty said:

    Is the reason labour seem to want unaffordable housing is because other ways of making money are harder?  Housing costs need to hurry up and collapse so young people can have a low cost of living, need to stop this young to old wealth transfer.  I feel like we need to be giving young people the most fertile environment for getting on in life.  

    That transfer is not going to last much longer. Gen Xers have been shafted by the changes in pensions and will have to work till they drop…I speak as one. I may be mortgage free at 60 all going well, but I won’t be able to retire until I am at least in my mid sixties on current projections because of the cruddy pensions I have from different companies that never seem to grow much in value. But yes, the next generation are even more shafted. Western Boomers…all those born between 1940 and 1965 were the luckiest generation that ever lived. Cheap houses, good healthcare, free education, tourism before the Chinese started travelling, jobs for life with final salary pensions. Gen Xers just missed out on the best of that.

  7. On 15/02/2023 at 08:32, Bear Goggles said:

    Yes, great stuff - but not an easy message for HPCers:

    • House prices are going to continue to rise after a short fall.
    • You need to buy a house no matter how hard that seems, because the rich will keep being given free money and they'll keep using it to buy assets inc. houses.
    • You need to buy a house or a rich person is going to buy it instead and rent it back to you.
    • Negative equity isn't as scary as renting from a LL who can chuck you out on a whim.

    He also says that the only way out of this situation is if the central banks stop giving money to the rich during times of crisis, or if the government starts taxing the rich via wealth taxes, (not income taxes).

    You don't need to be Nostradamus to see that neither of those two things are on the immediate horizon.

    Thanks for the summary, and saves me from watching it, although it does sound interesting. I am of this view and have been since COVID broke in 2020. I was half of this view since 2008, but felt that the TPTB couldn’t keep all the plates spinning to protect themselves, now I am convinced they will.

    I think that not only the rich will keep buying assets like housing, but I think the big corporations, particularly banks will get in on the game too. I suspect they will hoover up a lot of the properties that Buy To Letters are offloading at the moment. I would if I was an asset manager. Long term, given our immigration rates, ever increasing rent is a given, therefore there will always be guaranteed yield on property. I think small time investors will be driven out of the market though due to regulations. I intend to move a significant chunk of future pension contributions into REITs that have a long term plan to build a non-commercial rental portfolio.

    I think a peak to trough fall of 10% is now looking more likely than 20%. I am seeing shops full of people, pubs and restaurants busy mid week, letters from estate agents through my door saying that people want properties in my area. We will have a rocky year, with ups and downs, and there is always the war or some other black swan, but on current variables, I think if you can afford a property, get one while you can.

  8. 7 minutes ago, turkeydogshrimp said:

    I been offering for 6 months now, £150k under everything on price range of (£750-600k) and not one agent or vendor has accepted my offer. I've offered on over 45 houses. 

    If everything is falling like you say then why is no one budging. 

    Only people who have to sell are subject to the kind of strategy you are employing. If people can sit round and wait, they will, or take it off the market. High quality homes in desirable areas will go down, but not nearly as much as houses that are not so much sort after and which are being sold in desperation. Because we will not see the kind of forced sales we saw in the 90s there will not be anything like the crash we saw then. Maybe a headline crash of 15-20% tops, but in reality if you want a nice home in a nice area, you will be lucky to get a discount of 10-15% from peak. 

    Also, that is a highly competitive price range with lots of professionals with money looking in that range and few houses available.

  9. So many people saying the same things as I have heard before on here. Prices will fall further I suspect as demand has reduced considerably, but unless supply dramatically increases, the falls will slow quickly and the market will just stagnate for a year or two as only those who have to sell will sell, and those who can buy will buy, causing real terms falls due to inflation, but no headline crash type numbers. Then, as wages increase due to inflation (as they are now already), an IRs settle down, prices will rise again. I suspect the nadir is not far off, and prices will rise again mid 2024 onwards.

  10. 1 minute ago, TerryBoi said:

    LOL.

    True, I only know a few Canadians thru work.

    They seem OK.

    I don't know the behavior of the masses.

     

    I lived in Ontario for 7 years. They are polite but its quite superficial and by the time I left I decided that Canadians were only OK…people are the same everywhere just with different cultural camouflage. 

    The drop in prices is truly spectacular, but the run up and greed had been insane. We sold my house in Barrie in 2018 and it had doubled in price while we owned it, went up another 20-30% since then. Crazy.

  11. 29 minutes ago, TerryBoi said:

    I really feel sorry for our Canadians, they're nice people.

    Americans are selfish pricks who are used to making wild money, spending it all or going broke ... and then doing it all over again. The boom and bust cycle is sort of in our blood.

    But Canadians always seem more sensible, balanced and they never really make the big $$$. How they got into this mess I don't know! I feel its gonna cause a lot of depression over there because unlike Americans they don't have the mentality that they'll just make it all over again if they go bankrupt.

    You obviously haven’t lived in Canada.

  12. I became conscious of this when I bought a home last year and renovated it. It is a 70s bungalow and had an EPC in the low band D. The assessment had a number of recommendations to bring it up to band C, which in total would have cost about 30k and required ripping the house to pieces. I decided to kick the can down the road as I suspect there will be more loopholes built in because too many people will be effected by this. 

  13. 14 hours ago, no_dependent4663 said:

    It makes me wonder does 'going green' change anything? Or does it just slow down the inevitable.

    This is indeed a great thread, and a great question. Most climate scientists agree that the changes they predict are probably baked in, which means that rather than trying to stop the climate changing (which we most likely can’t) we should be investigating in mitigating measures.

    Our government primarily has a responsibility to the people of this nation who pay taxes for the betterment of lives in this nation. We need to be thinking about the conundrum of how we stop the population of our small island increasing any more, while also create the capability to adapt to a more elderly population and reduced workforce. Technology can solve this, we don’t need more cheap labour. we can automate jobs by unskilled workers and retrain them to work in healthcare and other professions…how you “encourage” this in a market led way is not obvious. We can solve the energy issues our country with sensible planning. A 30-40 year transition from gas to nuclear plus renewables. To some extent we have to plan for a world that is 2 degrees warmer and adapt our infrastructure and economies accordingly. If other countries continue to breed at unsustainable levels then we should plan to protect ourselves from the consequences, not encourage it by allowing them all to move here.

  14. I think we will see further falls, but if the war in Ukraine ends son, then I think there will be a massive bounce in global confidence. Whether or not this happens, I think the two biggest factors that will limit nominal drops to no more than 15% are:

    1. Bank forbearance/government schemes. Those who are stretched will be allowed to convert to interest only, and will get money from the government to keep them in their homes for years.

    2. Net immigration is in excess of 500k a year now. That is bonkers and will keep baseline demand high.

    Also, while the headline prices see drops of 15% Nationally (and in London 20-30%), this will be on small volumes. Those who don’t need to sell, won’t. When the bounce back comes, I think it will be quick and by 2025/6 prices will be back to June 2022 levels.

  15. On 04/11/2022 at 21:50, MarkG said:

    NZ will probably become a Chinese colony after the US collapses. I don't know what they'll do with the people who currently live there, but I doubt they'll be very nice about it.

    Without the US Navy to protect them, Australia will become a resource base for China and New Zealand will probably be used for CPC dachas.

    This is definitely my biggest concern, and does make me think twice. When I hear of the Chinese basically buying the governments of many of the Polynesian islands, and then look at a map, I can see a huge barrier slowly being built between the US and Australia and New Zealand. If the US collapses, then I suspect there is a chance it will happen, however, New Zealand is a very long way from China, and I suspect they are more likely to make a grab of the Philippines and Indonesia and use those islands for entertainment before they come to New Zealand..

  16. 4 hours ago, Bob8 said:

    There seem to be a few of you lot. I think you are a little optimistic if you think things will be far better abroad. For someone like me, the USA is far far better. But, I have family on this side that are not getting younger.

    Switzerland is the only option in Europe and that is not that easy and a very restrictive society.

    Getting together with a local is certainly good advice.

     

    My wife is a Kiwi, and I have more family there than here as I am an only child. Also (at the moment) the Kiwi tax system is very generous to new settlers when it comes to things like profiting from stock options and wot not for up to 3 years. Also, their property bubble is well and truly bursting, the pound has held up against the NZD, so it is where we will head…when my mother has departed this existence. Provided that the left are neutered in the next election, it should be a good place to move to.

  17. 1 hour ago, Up the spout said:

    That guy just got an instant support network, group of friends, free childcare, the ability to own property and run a business, and care in his old age. He'll have to help support her family within his means, but they'll do anything they can for the couple too.

    Very unlikely the locals will try and rip him off now, but once you get to know local shopkeepers and trades people that risk is extremely low anyway.

    I've live in ten countries and you can usually spot a con from a mile off, but you should never do any big transactions with strangers anyway. 

    If I was single I would think about the Philippines :) Christian country, beautiful islands…would just need to check that all the parts are “real”.

  18. Given that the Tories are becoming Labour in all but name, I will probably leave the country in the medium term…once my mother has gone. I don’t see the point in working hard or taking risks when I can’t keep the money. All the socialist idiots on here, and their children, will reap the whirlwind they have sown. Those with “broad shoulders” don’t like be slaves for the NHS, civil service pensions or to pay the hotel bills of illegal immigrants.

  19. I have lived in and travelled to many other countries. This is what I have learned:

    1. Everywhere there is corruption and greed. In countries that aren’t governed by solid legal systems and have at least a reasonable pretence of democracy, those who are most corrupt/greedy/violent prevail over the rest of the population.

    2.If you have friends and family you care about here, you will feel isolated “there”. Yes, you can make new friends, but it will never be the same, and family are irreplaceable.

    3. While I didn’t buy my first house with my current wife in the UK until I was 53, there is more to life than just owning a house. 

    4.The UK is actually a great place to live, but maybe you need to live elsewhere to learn that. Living overseas is a good experience, and worth doing for that alone, but don’t expect it be a panacea for your problems.

  20. 7 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

    Been doing that since 2018 loitering around the HRT threshold.  My salary just rose to 95% of 5 day pay in 2017, 97% of net.  88% of current 5 day net.

    Main benefit is a 3 day weekend.

    But also far fewer stressful juggling of work & social life.  No more Friday night drives in the cold, dark rain to get togethers, far more 3pm hotel check ins👍

    Now pushing for 3 day week but the IT director is sucking a thoughtful tooth.  He wants to expand my role.  I'm going to point out that 3/5 days is better than 0/5..

    But I appreciate its easier for people with decent pensions & reasonably transferable skills to be bolshie.

    I am planning on going into semi-retirement on 3-4 days a week in about 5 years time. Just need to get my experience and skills level in the sweet spot so I can call the shots. nearly there.

  21. 3 hours ago, scottbeard said:

    +1

    This is what I do

    This is absolutely stupid isn't it?  By all means have a 60% higher rate tax above 100k if that's what you want, but don't just have one for that tiny band then go back to 40% as we have now.  It's stupid, and one of the key reasons I now work 4 days a week not 5 (to keep myself out of that band).

    If you put everything above 100k in a SIPP you avoid this insanity. However, it really takes the incentive off working harder...that is what socialism does. working 4 days a week is a good solution too.

  22. Rishi will be signing a trade deal with India that will include a massive back door for a huge influx of migrants…millions. Anyone not thinking that will impact house prices is utterly delusional.

    As for Brexit. What many of us mistakenly thought when we voted for it was that we would somehow get out from beneath the globalists boot…but no, it would seem that we are even more a focus of their attention now. Starmer is cut from the same cloth. 

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