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HovelinHove

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Everything posted by HovelinHove

  1. The science was thrown out of the window they day they abandoned the original pandemic plan which never advocated for lockdowns. Moreover, ideology is absolutely at the center of the arguments. On one side you have a group of people who saying that liberty is more important than preserving every single life, and the other you have a group of people who are saying that everyone should sacrifice their quality of life to save a few lives. That is pure ideology. Moreover, no one ever recognises that there was a middle road, and only present a false dichotomy of lockdown or let it rip. Finally, you are you are possibly one of the more patronising pricks on this forum for making that last comment.
  2. It is quite exciting, been watching this closely for a few weeks…looking like it could capitulate….next stop 33k, or 16k? Seems like the Bears are winning, every time it rallies now, it is pulled further lower later.
  3. I don’t know why you’re arguing, you won, you and your control freak brethren won and we have had endless lockdowns. I am wasting my time with you.
  4. I agree with you, but disagree with the sentiment that just because some have to suffer restrictions, all should. That is left wing thinking and that is what has happened.
  5. Broad controls would only be required in the instance of a truly deadly virus, with an infection fatality rate of >3% say. People like you have raised a false dichotomy, and you are doing it again. I am not, and never have advocated for no controls, or no measures, and the instance you talk about is precisely the kind of situation in which focused measures could be applied better. Young people going to sweaty raves poses no risk to the young people. If they get COVID, they will recover. However, the nurse could indeed catch COVID from the young person and then bring it into the hospital (where it is most likely rampant anyway, since outside the home, that is the most likely place for someone to catch COVID). So you focus on how you stop the nurse getting it, not stopping everyone getting it. We have used an incredibly clumsy and destructive sledge hammer to crack a nut, and it hasn’t even worked, our death rate is still very high despite having some of the most severe lockdowns. While you rightly say we can’t trust people to be considerate, neither can we trust authorities with the kind of power they are now wielding. Centralised control does not work well outside of a war or genuinely serious pandemic type setting. While you can’t trust people to be considerate, you can probably trust them to do their best to protect themselves and their loved ones if they are genuinely under threat, and are provided with the tools and information to do so. That is the road we should have travelled down.
  6. Viruses and bacteria respond to selective pressure, just like all organisms. In the instance of masks and social distancing, you will drive the evolution of viruses that are better adapted to being infectious when humans are further apart and wearing face coverings. This will usually involve changes in the proteins on the capsid of the virus that maybe allow it last longer in open air, or stick to clothing better, or aerosolised better. If everyone is mixing as normal, then such strains will not necessarily emerge as they may have other aspects that make them slightly less efficient at replicating once inside the person for instance. With regard to the potential for driving a more deadly, or virulent strain due to lockdowns, this is just theoretical, but this is my thinking. During lockdowns the proportion of cases that arise from hospital infection rises significantly vs community acquired infection. There are two reasons why people will be in hospital in COVID. The first, and by far the most likely, is because they elderly or have an underlying health condition, but the second may be due to someone having a more virulent strain that has a higher pathogenicity. This will inevitably get passed on in the hospital, and will leak out of the hospital. In a situation where this more virulent strain that results in patients being unable to socialise has no competition from less virulent strains that are passed on an open community setting, it may start to predominate. About 20-30% of common colds are coronaviruses. It may well have ben that at one point in history, when the first version appeared, it higher fatality rate, but from an evolutionary perspective, for a virus to be successful, it must allow the infectious individual to remain reasonably mobile, and become less virulent and deadly. I am of the view that if we had invested heavily in protecting the elderly and vulnerable until a vaccine had arrived, and allowed the young and healthy to get on with life as normal, the net amount of suffering, and even mortality would be less than we will have by going down the population wide lockdown route.
  7. It has been shown by numerous analyses that lockdowns have no effect. For example comparing states in the US that had no lockdown vs strict lockdown…no difference in death rates. What tends to happen is that people modify their behaviour according to their own appetite for risk. People like you like seeing control, and being controlled…you do not believe that people should choose for themselves. When it comes to the emergence of a more deadly strain due to lockdown, I am drawing on my 15 years in virology to predict this might happen. Given that COVID is sometimes pass on prior to symptoms appearing, or in people who show less affects, if they work in a hospital or visit a hospital, and pick up a strain there that is more deadly because in general people are more sick in hospital, then they will take it out of the hospital. Lockdown, social distancing and masks drive viral evolution towards more infective versions…that we have seen, but total lockdown will drive it towards more deadly version in the end. The best that could have happened would have been a hybrid approach of more effective protection of the elderly until vaccines arrived and allowing the young to get infected en masse. The Indian variant is not more deadly, just more infectious. There is no evidence the vaccines don’t work against it, and even if they don’t , they will likely reduce the pathogenicity. Nutcases like you that still believe in lockdown are literally destroying our lives, and I strongly oppose you for condoning the removal of my freedoms because you think it best.
  8. It’s more spreadable but not more deadly. Lockdowns potentially breed more deadly strains as it increases the ratio of hospital transmission to community transmission, and thereby may cause the dominance of a more harmful strain.
  9. I ignore Si1 but I can see his comment in your reply…you forgot to add that India has a rate of mortality from COVID that is a 10th of the UK, being only 112 on the world COVID rankings. The healthcare system is woeful, and the population is 1.4 billion…what you see on TV is the worst of the worst, the vast majority have the snuffles or nothing and get on with life. Those who say look at India are idiots who are incapable of getting their tiny little heads around clinical data…as they have been all along hence the ludicrous and highly costly lockdowns that were a completely disproportionate and inappropriate response to a disease that mostly affected those who were going to die in the next year anyway. Thank you Locke for original post.
  10. While I detest the Tories (who I voted for) and particularly Sunak who goosed the market, this is a global phenomenon…in fact it has been quite tame here. In the city that I used to live in, Barrie Canada, and nearby Toronto, prices have gone up between 20-25% in a year, New Zealand the same, and the US has lots of markets like that. It is the mother of all supply squeezes hits the mother of money printing efforts. We sold up in Canada to come back here to be around for my Mum because my father got Alzheimer’s. We intended on buying last year, but a purchase fell through due to dodgy extension, then COVID, then multiple offers refused, even when on asking, and now we have one that has accepted, but are half expecting to get gazumped any second. If we do, we will completely give up as it is far too stressful. If we get the house, I will be relieved in some ways, but worried in other ways as I will taking on a reasonable mortgage and I am over 50. If it falls through I will be relieved to stay debt free, but worried about seeing my cash pile erode further, or worrying about the price of Gold crashing because I have chucked 30% of our cash into Gold. Finances wise, leaving Canada is looking like a monster mistake, but it was the right thing to do. It really is a horrible time to be in this position…but I will say this, it has taught me lean into my faith in a new way and made me realise that all this is just garbage in the end.
  11. My company has approved a hybrid model for most workers, but they will be required in the office 2-3 days a week, and I can guarantee those that want to climb the greasy pole faster will be in 4-5 days a week. People are sick of Zoom and Teams, and corporations are seeing productivity and innovation falter.
  12. Yeah, you are going on my ignore list, you are religious about Bitcoin.
  13. Also 8% in 4 hours (either way recently) is not somewhere I would park serious amounts of my wealth. Gold miners are businesses that produce a commodity that always has a baseline demand. Miners are a bargain at the moment from a historical perspective, and if Gold does break out, 8% will be nothing. You are a Bitcoin ramper and you talk like a demented teen...it’s embarrassing.
  14. Well I’m not poor to start with, I just want to preserve capital in the event I don’t buy a property. Also I don’t bet, I invest.
  15. Yeah, if my house purchase falls through I will be putting 30% of my cash in sovereigns and keeping them in a vault. Who did you use, one of the big ones? Was it easy? Now that Gold has started its move, I see it going to $2500 by year end, and most miners going up 50% or doubling, provided there’s no big equity crash. I bought 30k worth off big miners last week, in the subsequent days they went up 8%! Who needs Bitcoin.
  16. Boris was elected on a right wing Brexit, libertarian agenda, but since coming to power has adopted most of the policies of the centre of British politics...the kind of policies that the middle class love. He has lost a lot of the hard core free market libertarians (like me) in the process...I voted for him but absolutely detest him now because of the endless unnecessary population wide lockdowns, vast handouts, support for spivs, and his obvious lack of competence or integrity. However, we are a minority, and while he may have lost us he has gained all of those who are apolitical, and economically ignorant...the vast majority of our nation. I pretty much give up on politics now. Democracy is now an exercise of following public opinion which in turn is formed by a hysterical, misleading and manipulative media.
  17. The miners are really breaking out. Gold is above $1800 and looking solid. I think this may be the start of the road to $2500. Everything else has gone parabolic, it’s our turn!
  18. Despite being a highly paid professional I am working on the assumption I will need to work till 67, and must have no mortgage or rent, and forego most luxuries. That way I won’t be disappointed.
  19. Whatever you think of what he says about bitcoin, I think he is bang on with the miners. Even o all that speculative anti-fiat money already in crypto stays in crypto, those who are a bit wary of the high prices of crypto, will look at these miners and start to get interested if Gold begins to move again. There is so much more money about to enter the financial system due to the old Biddy in the White House and the cray Fed, who won’t touch rates until it is too late, that people will buy anything, and Gold/Silver and the miners look like a no-brainer right now. I was right about Oil last summer, I think I am right now.
  20. I am about 10% Gold (miners, ETFs and physical) but going to increase now because I think it is just about the last thing to experience a mania that hasn’t already. I am in the process of buying a house at the moment, but expecting to get gazumped every morning as things are “febrile”, and if I do, will abandon the market because it is insanity, and we may need to leave the UK in the next few years so don’t want to buy at the top. So I am thinking I really do need to get out cash fast now if I am not buying a house. Bitcoin may double treble, quadruple etc from here, but I feel nervous going into that. I have already gone pretty long on Oil (went last August near the bottom and doubled my money), and to me Gold looks ridiculously cheap given what is coming down the pipe in terms of inflation and money supply. I am thinking of dumping 50% of my cash for a house in Gold and silver if my purchase falls through. To me it is the easiest thing to trade that has the potential to preserve purchasing power (other than bitcoin). Honestly, it is nuts out there at the moment. I was going to buy a a one year old E class convertible or SLC later this year, but they have all gone! As everything else runs out and becomes too expensive, I think people will finally rediscover the love of Gold and there is nothing the banks can do about it.
  21. I am in the process of buying...if it goes through, I will be relieved in some ways, I am buying at the top end of a fair price, but in others, I just think this will end very badly, especially if Rishi doesn't extend SD holiday again...I could see all of 2021 increases evaporating by October. I will totally pull out if he doesn't and I am unable to complete before end of June, and the buyers won't come down.
  22. I voted Labour in 1997 and bought a house for 115k the same year. Sold it for 245k in 2002... Love to be reminded of why I block half the cretins on this forum now though.
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