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Everything posted by HovelinHove

  1. They are doing a transition thing from what I can gather. As others have mentioned, topping up reduced hour jobs. Yes, there will be fraud, but it will flush out the Zombie jobs as employers won’t want to pay 50% wages for jobs that are no longer needed. This policy, which I think will happen, does make sense. There may be a few sectors like airlines where the government offer to pay full Furlough as it currently stands for maybe 60% of staff, but there is no way they can carry on as they have. This is a huge human tragedy.
  2. Pharmaceuticals is doing just fine...always does. We can’t find people with the right skills. If any people have kids here, encourage them into healthcare.
  3. I live in my dream home. 5 bed detached on 1/2 an acre surrounded by similar properties all worth over a million, in the middle of beautiful countryside with a lovely country pub a short walk away. Large fireplace. Private road. Just a shame I can’t afford to buy it, and have to cough up a very large part of my salary every month for renting it! Originally only planned to live here 6-12 months...turning into 2.5 years!
  4. Not sure if it’s been mentioned here, but a few people might be doing some sightseeing at 12.00pm In Trafalgar Square on Saturday...nothing to do with an illegal freedom Rally of course.
  5. My wife and I are very aligned on COVID...no fear here. Might even do a bit of sightseeing at 12.00pm Saturday 26th September in Trafalgar Square this week...of course not there to join a huge illegal demonstration for freedom at the same time.
  6. Why do they say young people? I am over 50. I probably watch it once a month for 20 seconds, before I am reminded how much I detest it. We just renewed our license, but on a monthly basis since once The law is changed about decriminalisation I will stop then. I can’t be bothered with hassle. But we do not have satellite, aerial or cable. When we moved to Canada and were exposed to the worlds worst television, with The most ads per hour, we cut the cord then. Been Netflix, Prime and Youtube since. Have to admit though, Netflix is getting rubbish, and Prime is worse. Reading is the way ahead!
  7. The supply has been fairly steady...I’d say similar for both August and September, but August just went nuts. I think it was this super concentrated upsurge of demand focused in one month - a combination of my area being really good for future hybrid office/WFH - close enough to London to go in 2-3 days a week, but far enough out to be cheap for a nice house. Also lots of pent up demand from the lockdown. Then the demand bought forward from the future with Rishi 10 homes Sunak’s SD bung. This when combined with relatively low supply of houses, caused a bonkers August, but September is dead. Also seeing a few houses that went SSTC in August come back on.
  8. The two that I immediately think of are in education. One is UK FC for a company that provides trips for schools, the other is global FD for a company that provides Fast track education for internal students (Chinese and Indian) into UK, US or Canadian Universities. Both are on the ropes. Good businesses, very successful, but getting hurt badly. Someone else works in the musical business...not any more. I have others who are in medical events...turning to dust. I usually go to 2-3 international conventions a year, and have 6 company meetings, one or two of which are overseas...none this year, and even if COVID ended tomorrow, we have seen the light...we do not need to be going to every meeting. There will be 50% less of this stuff in the future.
  9. Brings them into line with everyone else. Still have a chance at 1 million prize. Still the safest by far. Short of buying treasuries, about the safest bet around.
  10. Market has completely died here in the last 2 weeks. Nothing on my watchlist has sold since the beginning of September except one prime location property. My watchlist is very nice, and moderately priced in good areas. I have put about 15 on since the end of August...in August they would have gone in a week, totally insane, now not moving at all. I renewed my lease till March...I am expecting all the summer gains to be gone by end of November and to be 10% down by March with some big drops early next year. A solicitor I spoke to said that had it not been for Rishi 10 homes Sunak’s bung to himself and his property owning chums, then the market would have been well on the way down now, but she said all it has done is delay things a few months, and possibly make it worse.
  11. Nice. It’s one thing Dave daytrader losing his shirt on the Nasdaq, but the recent mania in the house market is a massive disaster waiting to happen, and the banks don’t want to be left holding the baby. Quite happy to lend 75% to greedy, stupid or don’t care types who can cover the losses out of their own pockets, but beyond that the door is now closed. Winter is definitely coming.
  12. Things have changed massively here in the past few weeks. Houses were going SSTC within days in August, now only seen 1 on my watch list go in the past 3 weeks, and that was in a perfect location. I have friends who were once in very secure well paid jobs who are [email protected] themselves as the businesses they work for are on the edge.
  13. Try actually getting one though. That is the point the article makes. they advertise them to get the clicks, but you have to be a newly qualified doctor to get one. They said in the article that lots were advertised but reality is very very different. Oooh...your reply will be your thousandth post! How exciting.
  14. The banks aren’t buying this mini-boom at all. I have noticed a huge drop in activity in my area. Those that didn’t sell, will regret not accepting offers. Winter is coming folks. Mail saying that 10 and 15% deposit mortgages are gone for FTBs in the past few weeks “First-time buyers are being asked to save at least 20 per cent for a deposit on a house as there are little deals for mortgages on the market. In the past week, not one high street bank has offered mortgages for those with a 10 per cent deposit according to The Times. Brokers have also warned that deals for those with a 15 per cent deposit are also disappearing as more than 300 of them have been pulled since January. “
  15. I have noticed a dramatic change since the end of August. Houses were going SSTC within days in August, now they are not moving at all, unless exceptional value in an exceptional location. I think the latest threats of rolling lockdowns etc, a messy end to furlough, the loss of income are all going to be huge drag on the market now. I expect a lot of chains that were set up in August to collapse in The next month, the SWHTF. I still think September will see a modest increase, but October the drops will start and by January we could be looking at some pretty radical numbers.
  16. Thankfully we have statistics to inform us now if just how bad things will be. Assuming we have a second wave, then if you under 50 and get COVID your chance of dyinG is 0.02%...at the most. This number was calculated after the US CDC reviewed global fatality data. However, if you are healthy, the number is even lower as this includes all deaths under 50. If you over 70, then yes, do all you can to avoid getting COVID as you’d have 5% chance of dying (again less than this if you don’t have diabetes etc). So if someone is pointing a gun at you, and the gun has 500 chambers, with only 1 bullet in, you’d have reason to feel relatively unconcerned.
  17. I have FFP2 masks which I bought at the beginning when I thought we needed to be more careful. They work. Surgical masks are pretty useless.
  18. I was a bit wrong, but not as much as that. On proper analysis of the worldometer data for France, where I got the graphs, the nadir in the 7 day moving average for cases in France was about 310 per day and the 7 day moving average 3 weeks ago was 4270, about a 14 fold increase, the nadir in the 7 day moving average for deaths was about 9, and the current 7 day average is 41. Yes, that’s higher than 2 times, it’s 4.5 times the amounts are obviously rising and will continue to rise as people do die of COVID, as they do of flu, however that’s a really low CFR of 1%, which we know is much higher than a true IFR since not all cases are picked up since most are asymptomatic (between 50-80%) And never get tested. Moreover this will be heavily skewed by age of those dying. The CDC IFRs published last week are the best thing to go by now, and we know this virus is not deadly for more than 99.5% of people, and for anyone under 40 the chances of dying are about 0.02%. Under 20 virtually 0 unless you have a serious illness of some other kind.
  19. The scales are irrelevant as the proportionate change in both measures is what counts. If COVID was causing large scale fatalities, then a large increase in cases would cause a correspondingly large increase in deaths. Whether one graph is in the thousands and the other in the 100s is irrelevant. Yes, there has been a doubling of deaths from the nadir, but after an increase in cases of 10 or maybe even a 15 fold from the nadir. The IFR in under 50s is 0.02%, under 20s 0.0003%. The elderly are better protected now, the most frail may already have been picked off, we are better at treating it, there is a degree of community immunity. Time to get back to the old normal.
  20. We renewed our lease for 6 months to avoid this scenario and also because I am starting a new job soon. We would buy now if the market hadn’t gone nuts here in July and August. I have noticed quite a shift since the beginning of September though with houses not selling so quickly. I totally understand why you are doing what you are doing. I hate how much I am wasting on rent.
  21. If you believe that COVID no longer poses a serious threat, as evidenced by the second wave in France, please write to your MP and tell them not to support the Coronavirus Act and for the lifting of all restrictions on anyone under 60. The top graph is cases, the bottom deaths, which lag cases by about 3 weeks.
  22. The Great Reset is not a conspiracy theory, it is a well publicised strategy that the WEF are attempting to foist on the world using COVID as the Trojan horse. This will morph into a narrative which says that we must act as one world to tackle the even bigger problem of the climate “emergency”...no flights, unless you are in the elite. No personal cars, unless you are in the elite etc etc. No steak, no land etc Ultimately though it is a technocratic Socialism being imposed on the masses. Read their agenda...it could have been written AOC.
  23. I spent 15 years working in virology. My Ph.D. was in developing anti-virals. I think some parts of the UK are nowhere near herd immunity, but others are. The truth is we don’t absolutely know for sure, and it depends on what % of patients who had COVID but have lost antibodies retained T cell immunity, combined with what percentage of the population had prior T-cell immunity. The fact is that your wife’s virologist friend does not know that, and I do not know that. My gut feeling is that in places like London, which got it early and got it bad, and where ICUs are largely under capacity now, we are close to herd immunity, but other places who locked down before COVID arrived will get it bad now...however, given that we know how to treat it better, we know which groups need protecting, and that the IFRs for people under 60 are pretty benign, then even if the second wave is worse than I expect, it won’t be a disaster.
  24. Yep. So the government is now doing confirmatory tests on the positives as the chances of 2 false positive in the same person is 0.025%. Be interesting to see if the numbers shrink back in the next week or so.
  25. I do think we are having a second mini wave due to the fact that the lockdown in March stopped COVID from finishing off what it started, but I think that there is a much smaller pool of potential victims, and the second wave, while looking terrifying on the graphs because of testing, won’t be in real life...if you look at France and so on, this has happened all over Europe In countries which locked down, and as a result some those who are elderly and frail and not properly shielded, and who weren’t exposed in the 1st wave, may get picked off in this wave, And yes we will of course see a rise in hospitalisation and deaths...as we do with the flu. In some areas which didn’t hit badly the first time, they may have a pretty horrible time of it, and their ICUs may be like mid winter...but better do that now rather than in winter when people will be there for flu as well. I may be wrong, but my gut feeling is that in some parts of the country, like London, we have all but achieved herd immunity, and in many other parts we are close, so the second wave will be more of a ripple (although the graphs won’t show it that way).
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