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HovelinHove

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Everything posted by HovelinHove

  1. Not just yet. I am starting a new job next week, and while that wouldn’t be a barrier to getting a mortgage, I don’t want the stress of buying until I have my feet under the table. Nope, very much not the case with Burgess Hill. Crawley and Horsham are the areas most affected by Gatwick. Burgess Hill is one of those places that was massively affected by the exodus from London. The market has been red hot since July. Just seeing signs of things turning now. You didn’t look at the house obviously. Again, that house was not owned by an elderly occupant. The decor and type of house does not match. I keep my eyes out for those as well. This is a chain collapse or redundancy and I am seeing a lot like this rather than probate or OAP going into a home. They come on at a rate of 1- a week for my area, but these are coming on at about 2 a day at the moment.
  2. I have been out of things for a month as I wanted to write a book...have done that now, and I am catching up on Rightmove, and there are a lot of "No ongoing Chains" suddenly appearing...nice modern family homes many of them, some empty, some with bits of furniture. They are well priced, and I must admit, some of them shift quite quickly, especially those that look really well priced, but I am guessing that "no ongoing chain" means "BROKEN CHAIN BUT I AM COMMITTED TO BUYING NOW SO NEED TO SELL ASAP". Anyone else seeing this? It's the sheer numbers that strike me. 2-3 a day now in my search area, whereas a month ago maybe 1-2 a week. I am thinking that some people are getting nervous about missing out on the SD holiday and backing out, and others are not getting the valuations they need from the banks, or are can't get mortgages because of furlough etc. Here is the example that made me post this. This is definitely well priced for the area, and if they weren't very keen to sell, would put it on for 530k. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95758133#/
  3. I am actually seeing increases in this area, but this one really tickled me. Crawley is being decimated by job losses, and yet this nutcase...well just have a look:
  4. Some ay also be people who have bought elsewhere, got a bridging loan and are now crapping themselves.
  5. This is a really good point. I wonder how many people who have made offers etc are now worried about trying to complete in the middle of a lockdown. I can see a lot chain collapses coming soon.
  6. Things are what I would describe as normalish now. Houses that seem reasonably priced in good locations are selling reasonably quickly, I am seeing some forced sellers due to chain collapses (you can tell because they were on earlier in the year with furnished houses, now on again with empty rooms and phrases like Vendor Suited = vendor screwed!). In my view this is the quiet before the storm. I am seeing a lot of houses going on in Crawley Horsham area, which is heavily reliant on Gatwick. With much of the travel industry now Facing a multi year massive downturn, I expect to see forced sales rise sharply at the back end of this year. This will then feed into the wider Sussex area. Outside of areas like this I expect a slow grind down. I don’t see a massive crash happening, but I do think a bit of patience will see keen eyed cash rich HPCers nab 10-15% off 2019 prices (i.e. 20% off the current froth) over the next year.
  7. I it was me, I would try to offer half the costs of the necessary repairs off the price if you need to move. He can only say no, but they might say yes, especially if they have a place lined up and the time for SD savings is running out. But I’d wait another week or so, although that could wind them up too.
  8. We were a few days away from exchange of contracts on a house in January, and I finally got round to reading the full surveyors report and the solicitors comments. The extension had no building certificate, and while shiny new kitchen looked the dog’s, the workmanship was very poor. We walked away, we need something turnkey as we will be moving to NZ when my mother passes, and don’t want to be lumbered with a dud.
  9. I doubt it. The headache of trying to pick up the pieces would not be something that banks will want to touch, even if they eventually get their money back. The administrative burden alone would be a nightmare, and then potential lawsuits from punters who feel they were missold dangerous loans...nah, any sane business will steer clear of this. The article makes the point that even if this does come into being, by the time it does, it will be too late. Either the market will be visibly falling and only an idiot will want to buy, or the market will have neared the bottom and the bank will be happy to lend again to those who are able to buy and likely to finance repayments.
  10. You may be right. This is an oil tanker turning after all. The peak may well be October or November.
  11. Great article in The Telegraph this morning on this. I think the last point is key. This plan will take months to develop, and possibly at least a year to actually implement as it requires actively changing Bank Of England policy. By that time it is possible that the market may be half way down to the bottom anyway. Boris is an incompetent, deluded cretin (and I voted for him...twice) so given he is behind this, I am confident it will flop. Even one the property writers in the DT is having none of it: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/boris-johnsons-madcap-first-time-buyer-plan-wont-get-ground/ ”But the real problem is that lenders must play ball for it to work, and given the current uncertainty in the market, that seems unlikely. The plan relies on making banks give mortgages to people they don't want to lend to. You can create rules that stop banks lending, but you can't make rules that force banks to lend. In any case, the Government doesn’t have the power to stop stress testing. That is down to the Bank of England, which may not be as keen to expose lenders to more risky lending while memories of the collapse of Northern Rock are still relatively fresh in the mind. It seems that as lenders withdrew mortgages from the market, the system was working as it was designed to. And by the time this policy gets off the ground, lenders may well have started lending to these kinds of buyers again.”
  12. I think it will fall by the wayside as there are many other plates to juggle, and this requires overhauling the system in the face of significant opposition. Far too much detail for Boris to deal with. Great article in The Telegraph this morning on this - quote: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/boris-johnsons-madcap-first-time-buyer-plan-wont-get-ground/ ”But the real problem is that lenders must play ball for it to work, and given the current uncertainty in the market, that seems unlikely. The plan relies on making banks give mortgages to people they don't want to lend to. You can create rules that stop banks lending, but you can't make rules that force banks to lend. In any case, the Government doesn’t have the power to stop stress testing. That is down to the Bank of England, which may not be as keen to expose lenders to more risky lending while memories of the collapse of Northern Rock are still relatively fresh in the mind. It seems that as lenders withdrew mortgages from the market, the system was working as it was designed to. And by the time this policy gets off the ground, lenders may well have started lending to these kinds of buyers again.”
  13. I subscribe so have access to the comments section...universally hostile to Boris now, and on this article many are saying the kind of thing we are saying here. Traditional conservatives hate debt as it means higher taxes, and they just see this as Boris adding more debt on top of the COVID debt.
  14. All excellent points. It will maybe slow down the fall, and if they get this through fast enough they may even stop a fall in prices. Boris has completely destroyed our economy though and it is time to bet against sterling.
  15. Yep, we have dozens of country walks on our doorstep. Complete Godsend, could never afford to buy the place we are renting, so got lucky with timing.
  16. I have that set up but never close the laptop. I don’t think they are monitoring me yet, but you never know. My role is supposedly “field based” and I love being out there in front of people, riding on trains, driving around, seeing different stuff and different people each day. I am very lucky to have rented a beautiful home in teh country, otherwise this whole period of my life would have been miserable.
  17. Zoom has made things 10 times worse. I worked from home before COVID, and it was a very nice gig, now it is hell. I’ve noticed that desktop monitoring apps are popular with many companies, and even having access to your camera to check you are at your desk. You become a prisoner in your own home, with none of the social advantages of working in an office. Pretty miserable stuff.
  18. I am quite pleased with 0.9%. I thought we’d see 1.3% MoM. I am expecting between -0.5 and +0.5 next month, then some 1-2% drops for several months after that, maybe the odd -3% corker. The mini-boom is dead, and now the bust will begin.
  19. Some interesting insights. I have seen a few houses recently that went off the market in march come back on with 10% added on...they might just have got away with it in August, now I think they’ll be there still in March 2021, and 2022. Seeing lots of reductions coming through again, which is heartening, and also seeing a few chains collapsed. Another house that sold in July, was all furnished back then, just came on today completely bare...the owners are probably absolutely cacking their pants. This is where being purely business minded is the way ahead...I am not that person!! Waiting till Q1/Q2 next year when there are lots of people ready to offload at a reasonable price.
  20. The thing that has really changed everything for the worse in my view is the whole two dual parent working paradigm, and that is the real cause of the increase in house prices. With both parents being forced to work, life is super stressful if you have kids...great fun if you don’t, which some people are choosing. Women may have gained freedom from domestic servitude, and workplace equality, but families have lost out in my view.
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