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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by HovelinHove

  1. The hit to GDP in the UK has been one of teh highest in the world. Yes, even if we hadn’t had lockdowns GDP would have gone down, but by perhaps half as much as it did...still big, but not as bad. Moreover you are not accounting for government debt incurred to pay for this.
  2. Best thing now is to just leave with No Deal, then restart negotiations in the new year for a trade deal between independent entities. The hit to GDP will be a drop in the ocean compared to hundreds of billions we have squandered on keeping 82 year olds alive. It has literally cost well in excess of 1 million pounds per life saved so far, and when you think that the average age of death from COVID is 82, that is possibly the greatest act of economic and social self-harm any nation has ever committed. Brexit is nothing compared to this.
  3. I think it will be a long slow grind down now, maybe the market will just stay still for a few year, or drift down a few percent a year. Before lockdown, our area had loads of houses that had been on for a year, but they all got cleared out. With all the government help, and no doubt more to come, there will not be enough forced sellers to create the dynamics for a true crash. I am seeing some reductions again, and I am seeing properties stick around longer, but I am also seeing good homes that are well priced going quite quickly. I think after Christmas, and especially February onwards, cash buyers will be able to get 5-10% off 2019 prices on sellers who are desperate, otherwise like you say, people will just sit there and wait. Been a miserable year for HPCers.
  4. The smallpox vaccine was not rolled out to billions of people with only 2 months of safety data. Moreover smallpox is an extremely dangerous disease. Very different scenario and not suitable for comparison. However, I do agree, that once there is long term safety data, and a vaccine has been shown to have long lasting effects in the reduction of a serious communicable disease, then it is the right thing to have as many take it as possible...we are not there on any measure with COVID or the vaccines.
  5. Since it's not 100% effective, then you might not be protecting them either even if you have the vaccine. Moreover, there is still some lack of clarity around whether any of the vaccines actually stop transmission or just reduces severity of the infection. Ultimately I see a lot of people thumping their chest about how virtuous they are to be running to take the vaccine, and I am just pointing out that it really is not that virtuous.
  6. Swine flu vaccination caused narcolepsy in rare instances. Using hyperbole doesn't help. Framing everything as either lunatic conspiracy theory or rational response does not help. Vaccines permanently change your immune system, archiving a response to a specific biological motif, in this case the spike protein. It is impossible to predict how that altered immune system will respond to similar viruses with a similar motif in the future. People have every right to be cautious about using a medical intervention with no long term safety data, especially if their personal risk profile from COVID is very low (or as with Bruce, he suspects he may have had COVID).
  7. Excellent. Yes, if I was in your shoes, I would possibly have it when my turn came around but who am I to TELL you or force you what to do when it comes to allowing a medical intervention into your body that changes your immune system permanently.
  8. The selfish argument about vaccinations does not work in this instance. If those at more risk of complications from COVID are vaccinated before you, then you won’t be protecting them by having the vaccination. The only reason to have the vaccine is to protect yourself if you are concerned about COVID. Long COVID is relatively rare, albeit more common than death from COVID. Having said that I personally do not want to get this bug, so will consider the vaccine at some point when I am comfortable with the amount of safety data we have, which is not yet. Forcing others to have it through self-righteous moralising is utterly despicable though. Choosing to have a medical intervention that permanently alters your immune system is a personal choice and should only be about that person’s risk benefit comfort, and not about appeasing the Twitter mob.
  9. I have worked in Pharma for 20 years, and spent 15 years working in virology. I voted yes, but I wouldn’t take it next week. I am in a medium risk group, over 50 and overweight, so I really don’t want to get COVID. On the other hand having worked with clinical data all my career, I would want to see long term safety data of at least 1-2 years before I was completely comfortable taking it. For anyone under 40, there is absolutely no reason to be taking it until 2022 (if it still works then, which it most likely won’t since coronaviruses mutate very well). Those who say they are doing it to protect others do not realise that by the time they get the chance to take the vaccine, those who need protecting will have had it themselves, so won’t need you to take it. I actually believe it is unethical at this stage to offer it to under 20s who have zero risk of dying or complications from COVID. The mRNA vaccine is certainly a Great Leap Forward, but I do have my concerns about the fact mRNA therapies have not been used widely and we do not understand possible down stream side effects fully yet. This is my ultimate position: over 65s...now yes, absolutely. 50-65...weigh up the local infection rates and time of year when you are offered it. If it is February and there is still a lot of COVID about and you have another risk factor, maybe take it, but if it is April, and infection rates are low, maybe wait till Autumn. 20-50 years old. I would wait till next autumn at earliest. under 20s. Should not be offered it till autumn 2022 at earliest.
  10. The Telegraph said that Treasury advisors were of the mind to extend the SD holiday due to the carnage of chain collapses all over the place. What I can see is a different situation where Sunak says that all transactions with contracts exchanged by say the end February will be exempt of SD provided they complete by say the end of May. Fixing dates and insuring that there is no doubt about the SD tax break would be fairer than the lottery that people are going into now with surveyors and solicitors at peak capacity, and more acceptable to those who hate this SD holiday than extending it for another year.
  11. How depressing, I can't see half the posts because they the usual idiots mouthing off. Can one of the adults comment on whether there was anything at all about SD holiday extension, or anything that might hint at it...that is by far the most important thing for us on here, and the direction of prices for those wanting to buy a home. My impression is that it is no dice, Sunak knows the country is stuffed, and needs that money badly. This will have a very significant effect on the market...remember that saved SD became leveraged deposit, which is why house prices went up so quickly, the reverse will be equally true.
  12. For example, this one went SSTC in September, reappeared "No Chain" a few weeks ago at 10k off August price, now knocked another 10k off. I am seeing a lot of this, really only in the last 2-3 weeks, but I think the SD holiday end is starting to weigh heavily on the market, and it didn't look like Sunak was going to renew it. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/99728078#/
  13. Nope, supply is getting better at the moment. Seeing a number of houses that were sold earlier in the year reappearing, and lots of new houses coming on each day too. I am starting to feel the HPC juices flow again after what was a horrible few months. This is leafy Sussex btw, 450-600k for a reasonable 4 bed detached in a nice area. Went up about 5% between July and October, now holding, but am seeing discounts.
  14. Love seeing these idiots come on here think we notice. I am seeing a lot of houses coming on in my area. 4 bed detached in nice areas, some of them were on in August and went very quickly, back now and hanging round for weeks. Anyone wanting/needing to sell, has now completely missed the boat. Only houses that discount deeply are selling now in my area. BTW leafy Sussex, less than hour by train...doesn't get better.
  15. February now I think. I originally believed it would be October, but the SD holiday and other factors have just pushed it back a few months.
  16. I think there will be a prime moment to snag a sneaky bargain at the last minute that a “cash” buyer and “Chain free” seller can do the whole thing and sneak it in before March 31st. realistically end of January at the very very latest. A desperate chain free buyer may drop 5% or more. After that it will be very interesting to see if it is a slow grind down or a desperate sell off. Without foreclosures, it will be the former.
  17. Boris won’t want to, but he may have no choice. At some point the markets are going to start forcing rates up if they don’t stop splurging.
  18. I could easily see that happening around January-March time. SD Holiday ends, Furlough ends, mass migration from cities ends. Budget raises CGT on profit from second homes etc. Government so embattled from those within its own party to stop splurging that it stops the taps.
  19. I think the latter personally. Just too much of it happening at the moment and in certain types of houses.
  20. My wife is a kiwi and I have permanent residency. We have been watching in horror as prices have run away worse than the UK in the past 6 months, but this is very good news indeed. I watched the announcement by the finance minister yesterday on Youtibe and he was pretty clear that this was just one of a number of measures they were considering to bring prices DOWN. He was very specific about addressing both supply and demand side of the equation, and that reducing availability of credit and increasing the cost of credit was a part of suppressing demand. They understand the harm it is causing younger generations...good on them. We will move there when my parents are gone...if our pounds are worth anything. Although, many think that Cindy will destroy the economy now she has an outright majority and no need to pander to Winston Peters.
  21. Bit of a rock and hard place for some of these folks I suspect. If they don’t take a small reduction now, they may have to take a bigger one later. Personally, after today’s spending review, I think anyone paying today’s prices is completely barking mad. I think we are heading for a very significant fall now. People will be sobering up as they realise furlough is ending, SD holidays are ending, unemployment will rise significantly, public sector will be less well off, private sector is in a mess in many sectors, Boris may be booted out because he is loathed by many in his own party who voted for him because of his betrayal of “conservative value”.
  22. Just reading the Telegraph and two articles saying that agents are seeing the market slow significantly now, even in the hotspots areas. I would not be surprised to see a lot of people who were thinking of moving out of London suddenly realising that come the spring all will be good again, and no reason to leave. The DT also points out in numerous articles that the SD holiday window is all but closed now. If you haven’t started the process before Christmas, it’ll be touch and go if you make the 31st March deadline. I think this is contributing to the number of broken chains, and hence the rise in no ongoing chain for those committed to the move legally.
  23. I understand what a chain is, and I guess you are right but so am I probably. At some point in the chain, most likely at the bottom, a buyer has had to pull out, which means that all the buyers above them have to either hope the one at the bottom gets a buyer or put it back on. That is what I believe we are seeing, and these listings are a sign of that. If someone says no ONGOING CHAIN, they one of: 1. Second property owner, most likely BTLer offloading a property. 2. Probate or OAP moving into care, or downsizing with cash. 3. Someone who is legally committed to buying their next home (gone beyond completion) and who has secured short term funding, or who has cash to follow through. Given what we know about banks and surveyors being touch with valuations and lending criteria, I believe we are seeing a lot more of 3 than 1 and 2. The houses I am seeing may be BTL, but I also think they are likely to be families who are going up the ladder because they have been able to leverage cash they are saving due to the SD holiday, and are committed to the move. This is especially the case if they are well priced.
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