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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by HovelinHove

  1. We handed the keys back to our rental last week, and she said we were lucky to be able to buy a house. In this area, rural West Sussex with a 1.5 hour commute if you include drive to station and parking, detached houses for sale have 20 viewings within a day of listing. That is now. That is what the agent said with nothing to gain. I see houses like the one we bought in March going for 10% more than we paid now, and selling in a week. For the right kind of home the market is still nuts. There are a large group of people who live in London who didn’t rush to buy in the country, and waited to see how WFH would pan out who are now being granted full or part time WFH and will now move.

  2. 11 hours ago, Dorkins said:

    If non-tradesmen are paying tradesmen more for the same service that's just moving money from one person's pocket to another, there is no increase in the total amount of money chasing houses. Probably less once you account for taxes. The tradesman might get a better house but the non-tradesman gets a worse one, all they are doing is swapping places.

    The people who use tradesmen will typically have their own home, but young tradesmen have been priced out until recently. I have spoken to a couple of young electricians who were talking about buying now after years of bing frozen out.I have less money because they are earning more, but I just bought a house and borrowed a bit extra to pay the increased costs.

  3. 15 hours ago, henry the king said:

    Yes they will somewhat. But I would still expect house prices to stay flat in nominal terms in 2022 even in the "best" scenario (for HPI people). Which will mean a 5% decline.

    But in a scenario where inflation takes off then rates will raise faster and it will cause nominal house price declines.

    Not everyone will benefit from higher wages and if inflation takes off then wage rises won't keep pace with inflation. Unions are too weak

    Also remember the current rises are due to a 1 time increase in savings as nobody could go on holiday or waste money going out.

    I think you are right in some ways. As inflation takes off people will have less money to spend on houses and IRs will rise. This will throttle opportunities for growth. On the other hand, if inflation is taking off, people will look to keep their money in property as protection. That is part of the reason that I bought now, that and the fact I was paying loony rent. I was genuinely worried about the large amount of cash that I had being devalued. We bought a house at 2018 prices, and having renovated would make at least 50-100k pure profit after all the costs of the refurbs and moving in just 3 months. I feel much happier being in this position than sitting on a pile of cash. If the price of property goes down, I will just ride it out and be living in a lovely home that I own not having to rely on the landlords whims, but if inflation burned my savings I would have been stuffed.

    If I was a young plumber or electrician and just worked my fingers to the bone this past year and managed to put aside 30k, I’d put it into a house or flat. Every day reading about inflation would make me want to move that money out of the bank.

    I sleep better now.

  4. I'm turning full VI now as I recently moved into my new home :) however, I have to say, that despite the huge potential for a crash that lurks out there, I think there is one thing that may really change things, and that is a big surge in wages of those with a trade. We have spent 3 months (of hell) having our new house renovated, and trying to get plumbers, electricians or plasterers etc is a nightmare and they are charging what they want. That is partly due to the surge in activity, but also lack of foreign cheap competition. I have spoken to lots of them and they are very happy about things and some young ones were talking of buying decent homes. Whilst I think the crazy rises of the past year will stop, I do think there are sufficient numbers of buyers of homes who are now earning enough to afford the prices being asked.

  5. I was doing Jury service last week and one of the jurors had moved to our area last year, selling up their home in Chiswick to live the WFH dream. Now one of them has been told they have to be in 5 days a week in West London. 1.5 hr commute from hell. It is because of them houses have been unaffordable in my area, and now because of them panicking and selling up, the house I bought will probably lose 25% of its value! Grrr.

    However, I do think those who were more wise and decided to wait before making the plunge, and now see 2-3 days WFH becoming a permanent reality, will now make the move. There could be a bit of churn with those who jumped the gun selling to those who hung on to see what would happen, so prices could just stabilize. I don't see anyone else selling a house though if they don't need to, and with all governments committed to "protecting hard working families" there is no chance of mass repossessions, just a gradual take over the property market by banks with government help.

  6. 5 hours ago, winkie said:

    It is happening now, people struggling to pay mortgage because of job loss, illness or age, people otherwise unable to release equity......vultures circulating to buy up cheaply to rent back, own equity and or benefits being used to rent back.......one day it will all be theirs.;)

    Yep. You will own nothing, and they will own everything. Mass home ownership , the idea that you pay off a debt over a number years to own a home, empowers and enriches the masses, especially in their later years, but this is pure feudalism and a return to serfdom where the masses are at the mercy of these organisations and governments. This is precisely what the Great Reset is…they dress it up as some sort of socialist paradise, but it is corporate feudalism.

  7. This video makes huge sense to me (apart from the desperate plea at the end to buy Bitcoin…although I get that too).

    I look around the world, especially the Anglo Saxon world, and I have fingers in the Canadian, New Zealand and UK pies, and I am seeing bonkers increases in property prices (the UK is massively under performing Canada and New Zealand). The US is seeing massive run ups, and yes, some of that is driven by people fleeing the cities, but some of it is definitely being driven by this (Blackrock and other huge funds buying houses). I have become a little suspicious that it has been happening in commuter towns in Britain…houses disappearing the day they are listed. There are not many individuals out there capable of mobilising that fast.

    I also think we will see this happen by stealth when the economy goes into reverse and people hit hard times. There will be no repossessions, the ownership will just transfer to banks or investment funds and former owners will become tenants.

    We are slowly reverting to a feudal system.

    (disclaimer - I complete on my house purchase in 4 days time so now have a vested interest in prices not crashing).


  8. 8 hours ago, Warlord said:

    I presume there is quite a bit of gold there though you're right it hasn't been audited for years.

    Anyway, the dollar is a fiat currency. All fiat currencies in history have failed. Ours and theirs will do so too.


    Best sell your fiat. I transferred much of my cash to my solicitors for my house purchase yesterday…my bank accounts look normal again, and I feel very relieved. less worried about an HPC than something gobbling my cash, including the inflation monster. HPC 25%…oh well, bank collapses, money printing…so few people have six figures in cash lying around that if they get burned, no one will care…especially not CBs or politicians. Assets are the way ahead.

  9. 5 hours ago, Biggus said:

    If rates went up there would be a spectacular crash. Not just in stocks, but also bonds, housing and anything else that's in a credit bubble. There would be defaults and banks would have to write down debts, probably a some would go bust. The US would go broke pretty quickly, as they have no intention of balancing their budget and debt payments would skyrocket. There would be huge unemployment as credit dependent firms went bust.

    The other choice is even worse. To keep rates low and keep printing until the dollar is worthless. The result would basically be an end to most economic activity. State employees are paid with worthless paper. Pensions and state benefits become worthless. Farms and factories stop production as they would be paid in worthless paper. Nothing is available to buy in stores and people go hungry. Imports stop as exporters don't want worthless nothing in exchange for thei goods an services. Full on economic collapse.

    That's the choice thanks to twenty years of incredibly, unbelievably bad policy. In keeping with past performance I'm betting they go gor the second option. They wont believe it's even possible until it happens. And it's inevitable if rates are never allowed to increase and money is continually printed.

    I completely agree. They will burn everything down with inflation.

    As for the UK, the oaf in Downing Street wants a second term, he will change the fixed term parliament act, and go for a 2023 election. He will quit in 2025 as he is lazy and would rather have fun and make money writing and giving speeches. In the meantime he will do a deal with Sunak that if he does everything to keep the plates spinning till at least the election, then he will support him taking over. They will dream up completely new ways of stopping a crash. There will be no repossessions and lots of incentives for FTBs.

    After 2023 there will be a crash vs Gold etc, and in real terms, but probably not nominal terms as these monsters will be happy to see fiat devalued massively as they are all asset rich.

  10. 8 hours ago, dirtysteve said:

    Very good point. And congrats.

    I completed a few months back after a few years out of the market and after taking advantage of the full SD cut it felt good telling my nightmare landlord where to go. Maybe I got unlucky with my last landlord but after that renting experience I wouldn’t wish renting on my worst enemy.

    Our landlords have been fine, just costs us an arm and a leg.

  11. On 06/06/2021 at 15:38, Pop321 said:

    Some ‘Bullish’ responses around the fact the government will do everything in their power etc….house price crashes occur when the natural flow is beyond the power of government, like trying to stop the tide coming in.

    So i like the initial post….yep you have done it, yep you expect a crash, yep if that happens you will live with it and bought as well as you could in a balmy market. And I think that’s the absolute right attitude.

    Many of those near us who are buying now and expecting further market rises have bought carelessly and whilst the market may well catch them up…if the market evens softens slightly they are way way over.

    Those (like you) who are tired of waiting and decided to take the step and are expecting the worst are far more likely to have tried to buy some value and protect against potential falls. You may have bought at the top but with some value you can often do ‘okay’ even in a falling market.

    My son bought for £248k an extended house over Christmas and exchanged end of March….in summer these were £275k and beyond unextended and they are again now. The odd example at £325k with wood burner and grey curtains 🤦🏻‍♂️.

    These others buyers may well be lucky if the market rises but even a removal of froth and no fall will see £250k for extended and £225k unextended. For some that’s a wasted opportunity.

    You have done the right thing for you….and expecting not to do well is the right mentality. I hope however will the prudence you have taken and the renovations you actually do very well 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻


    Thank you. Yes, I wish I was buying with more confidence in the market, but I am sufficiently confident about the house, location, and personal circumstances to take the risk.

  12. 40 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

    Greetings from down the road in Felpham.  Sounds like you exchanged quicker than us (6 months!).   You will have a lot of plates to spin with the renovation.  Even with a great builder taking to brunt of planning and co-ordination, it is very tiring and pressured to have to make simultaneous decisions about construction, drainage wiring, plumbing, lighting, floors, doors, tiling, a new kitchen, bathroom that you will have to live with for 10-50 years.  Also beware shortages - you might need to order pvc doors or a new cooker 8 weeks before you need them.

    Avoid fancy new architectural features unless the existing structure makes it easy.  You will probably find that the underpinning, steelwork, non standard roof construction etc. will be unjustifiable, or just plain too expensive.  We abandoned an 18ft wide feature gable end window because we could build a big cabin in the garden and renovate the free standing garage for HALF the cost (and the kitchen will be much cheaper to heat without the "wow factor" vaulted ceiling).
    All first world problems of course.  You will be very happy when you have an older place with all new services and appliances, and toasty warm in the winter.

    Thanks for the tips and the warning. yes, I’m aware of the issues with supply chains. Also, your advise on keeping existing structure, something we recently decided and instead of a huge open plan kitchen diner we are going to have a well insulated tiled conservatory and keep the rooms divided. With the advent of so many WFH, more rooms are better, and it is cheaper too. We are lucky to be able to continue renting our current property, but at the same time it is money we’d rather be spending on the renovations, so at some point we will move in with the builders half finished.

  13. 5 hours ago, msi said:

    What matters is you have somewhere that works for your life.  It's too hard calling the market with every prop being thrown at it.  Assuming you bought in 'Hove Actually', it's not a bad place.

    Agreed…no, can’t afford Hove, but only 5 miles away and can cycle there on bike paths in 30 mins, and I will be living in the downs national park, so very happy with the location.

  14. 6 hours ago, bearishonhouses said:

    I wish you and yours happiness in your new home. As long as you can continue to afford the mortgage payments, the 'value' does not matter.

    (Even if, as I suspect, it will be higher two years by the end of 223 and not 50% lower, which is what I would prefer.) 

    After Sunak’s behaviour the past year, it is obvious that the number one economic imperative of the Tory party is to keep house prices rising, and while they may fail, unless there is massive forced selling then I think they will at the very least keep them close to current levels, even if they burn the pound in the process. I suspect in the event of rising redundancies we will see schemes in the future that transfer ownership of the properties to the banks or government backed rental corporations, with outstanding debts and shortfalls in rent payments underwritten by the taxpayer so the former owners can maintain the illusion of wealth and pay what they can until they get back on their feet. This should stop any significant massive crash, but I do suspect that we will see a 5-10% drop over the next year whatever. For me, paying max SD on 500k and nosebleed rents, a 10% drop is about the same as renting for another year, so I would gain nothing by holding out, especially as I know that I got it at a very good price (10% off Nov asking price and what it would have gone for in late 2019). 

  15. 4 hours ago, Tenant4Life? said:

    Not the last, but there can't be many left. After being given S21 notice and not being able to find another suitable rental in 6 months (south west), we have an offer accepted and hope to complete sometime in July. After seeing prices continue to rise throughout COVID we sadly concluded that, despite the damage to the wider economy and the insanity of it all, house prices are only going one way. With COVID delta third wave looming and the 30% discount scheme starting today it seems nothing will stop house prices (gov props) short of societal collapse.

    Yes, the uncertainty of renting in the UK rental market is unpleasant. Congrats on your accepted offer, hope it all goes through well. The Tories have made it clear that they will do everything in their power to keep the market going up, and that is an important factor to consider as they are likely to be in power until the end of this decade.

  16. Having not bought a home in the UK since 1997 (sold in 2003 then moved to Canada in 2011 where I bought a lovely huge house for peanuts), I have bought a home in the UK. I got something at a 2019 price. I still expect to see 10% or more knocked off, but so be it. I found a home that I love, that I can afford, that will be highly desirable once we have renovated it, so that is that. 

    So being the last bear to cave, I now fully expect a housing apocalypse!

  17. 9 hours ago, Dweller said:

    I guess the numbers in hospital over the next few months will tell. If this doesn't work then I don't know what the answer is other than leaving the elderly and vulnerable to die at home as it is the overwhelming of the NHS that is the issue here isn't it? If not for the elderly and vulnerable then everyone could have just got C19 there wouldn't have been a need to vaccinate would there? It was surely never worth vaccinating all the healthy and fit people (who would have had a natural immune response to whatever variant) so that the less healthy /elderly and vulnerable people wouldn't get it was it? 

    In the worst case scenario, about 10% of the elderly and vulnerable would die…they don’t need to be alone, or at home. But I think that with the vaccine it would be much less, but yes, we need to just get on with life now.

  18. Sorry, that prediction from SAGE is complete nonsense. Virtually all hospitalisations from the new variant are in non vaccinated people, and the sample sizes are too small to able to make the predictions they are making As usual they are just ramping up the fear in the UK population. If your anti-body response is slower, it will mean you get some mild symptoms vs no symptoms. The vaccine should make COVID like a cold or a mild flu at worst with each new mutation. 

  19. We are a few days away from exchanging. We bought a house that was in probate and needed doing up at a fair price, about Jan 2020 price. Fully expecting a drop of 5-10% in value of this house over the next year or two, and a wider decline of 20%+, but our rent is 30k a year, we won’t pay SD, and it’s in a lovely location, and once we’ve finished doing it up, we will love living there.

    i think the declines are unlikely to start until the New Year as forced sales won’t really start until then. Moreover, I am of the view that the Tories will do anything to avoid a full blown HPC before the next election now, so there will be all kinds of schemes to stop forced sales….many of which will turn current owners into de facto tenants of the lenders.

  20. We are days away from exchanging contracts on a probate property that was put on the market last November and needs a full renovation. They had it on for way too high, had 2 developers low ball them, and we came in just above those offers and got the house in March for what I regard a fair price. We are paying 2019 early 2020 price for the house, it is in a lovely street in a beautiful village surrounded by a National Park. I had a chat with the agent selling us the property, and told him if we don’t complete by end of June and avoid the SD, we will back out and wait till next January. He agreed and said that all the gains of the last year would evaporate by this time next year…an estate agent said that! 

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