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House Price Crash Forum

onrollover

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About onrollover

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  1. RBS seems to be falling like a stone. Is it really worth 27...28.....29....30% less than this morning?
  2. I really don't see all this deflation scenario. The solution to the credit crunch has been to try and inject more money into the economy, to some extent this will be countered by reduced liquidity but I can't see it resulting in deflation when China and India are still developing at an enormous rate. Ultimately overall people aren't spending less, they are just having to spend all the money on more basic things, none of the falls in commodity prices have translated into falling prices of goods and I am really not sure that they ever will. I know commodities have fallen a lot in value but I would say they have fallen more than enough, their has been no change in demand for food or power, people aren't yet switching everything off or showing massive increases in efficiency. We are learning more and more that we can't just switch off or stop consuming, we all NEED a smaller car, a washing machine to replace the broken one etc. etc. We can't go back to living off the land like we did in the 1940's. The luxury things that we don't need it turns out don't actually require that many resources to make (services, small electronics etc.) I see this as a momentary fall due to the twin effects of the exiting of the market of speculators and a re-assessment of demand in light of the expected UK, US, Europe Recession, I really don't expect commodity prices to be anywhere near this low ever again. Yes their is deflation in the housing market but this does not translate to deflation in the overall economy.
  3. Does anybody have some up to date numbers on development land values? Surely we should be able to see some drops already. All I can find is yearly reports on development land values.
  4. I went to see Taleb talk and frankly within the first few seconds it was obvious he was talking a load of ********. Granted we do in society overly rely on the words of experts who should be the first to admit most predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt. The examples that he gave of Black Swan events were the invention of the computer, internet and the success of google. He may have been surprised by the fact that computer technology took off as it did but many weren't and had been predicting for tens if not hundreds of years. Equally it was obvious some search engine would become the central access point of the internet, which one may have been down a little to chance but someone with knowledge of the technology could probably have told you Google had a pretty good model along with perhaps one or two other companies at the time. Thats a pretty accurate prediction if you ask me. Oh and he said the internet was an invention of DARPA, (is he sure it wasn't Al Gore) So basically you can shoot down pretty much every example he has given of these events. All I could draw from it is that he wasn't smart enough to know who the right people to listen to were and had an extremely limited knowledge of the history of computersand the internet and so now prescribes to the belief that everything is basically random and totally unpredictable. He seems to stretch this model that is reasonable perhaps for the stock market in the last few years (when we have had too few real experts and plenty of pseudo experts about including alot of poor economic thinking) and stretches it to cover everything including science. He had some very suspect things to say about how good scientific studies into cancer drugs were as if this showed that all science is wrong. I would say that yes ten years ago we were working in the dark and had more misses than hits but that isn't entirely the case today this does not prove his point. He didn't come across as intelligent and frankly I don't think you should listen to a word of it. I suspect he is an author/researcher rather than a trader now for good reason. I think he has a limited understanding also of the theorys he describes, I suspect they are thrown in to give the text weight or make it complex enough to confuse. The whole point of fractal theory is to prove that their is something simple beneath something complex not the other way around! My theory, what is a black swan to some people is a white swan to others. My example HPC!
  5. Nope they didn't try to give it back I don't think and they realised they had it, they were by the letter of the law wrong but the jury decided otherwise. I guess you must be able to get records of it somehow. I assume it was in a cambridgeshire court somewhere if that helps.
  6. I know someone who was a jurer for a case where a similar thing had happened to a young couple, £40k accidently which they spent on holidays etc. The outcome of the case was that the jury decided they were not guilty and they got to keep the money. This was based on the fact that the whole jury thought the bank wasn't exactly going to notice, it was there fault it occoured and the young family needed and deserved the money more. So is it legal? Probably not, but doesn't mean you can't get away with it legaly.
  7. Too early still. I will wait for further banking collapses. This is not financial advice.
  8. Hello Crazy people. Banks are owned by their shareholders. If you have a stocks and shares ISA or a pension fund then I suspect you may well own them, as do I and lots of other people, granted their are a few large shareholders who own big chunks but more often than not these are actually funds which represent lots of people, again like us, and other people from all over the world. The more specific issue of the BOE is explained on their website they were nationalised in 1946 and from that time on it has been owned by the treasury despite the fact that it is now "independant". http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/legislation/legis.htm Who owns the FTSE? well again the FTSE Group is a company you can buy shares in and so is the LSE and all the shares indexed by the FTSE indexes are purchaseable by you. I hope this is useful information, for all you conspiracy seekers. We have enough problems visibly caused by our elected PM Gordon Brown without worrying about other mysterious overlords.
  9. Interesting to see so many people in East Herts are on this forum. Must be something to do with all the commuters.
  10. Whats wrong with a falling pound! It makes all our exports cheaper! Think of all those erm "knowledge and services" we will be selling now. We are really knowledgeable about finance and stuff, can't you tell by our fabulous management of our own economy. Here is my imagined conversation: World: Hi UK, so do you mind me asking, what does your economy do? UK: (looking around nervously) Erm well its complicated. World: Oh ok, well I have plenty of time for you to explain. UK: Er well we sell "knowledge and services" World: Knowledge, ah I think I know what that is, so you invent lots of new technologies, produce and sell it to people? UK: Well sort of, we do the first bit, then china does the rest. World: Ah so patents! UK: Yes we produce patents! World: Oh ok, a bit like Japan, they produced 39,000 patents in 2006, how many did the UK produce then? Uk: Erm, well er, about 4000. World: Oh so nearly as many as the state of Illinois. UK: Well nearly. World: So services then, I guess thats your big thing. So What services do you offer. UK: Mostly financial. World: Mostly? UK: Well we used to do other things but not so much recently, India does most of them. World: Oh ok then. Financial is good. So you have a lot of strong financial institutions. UK: Well until recently... actually I would rather not talk about it if thats ok. World: Er ok. Would you mind if I go talk to China, they have some really interesting stuff to show us. UK: Oh ok then, bye.
  11. Lloyds TSB has poor rates though, best you can get is 5% if you put in a lot for a fixed term. Yorkshire BS sounds ok. I am trying to interprit what the various credit rating agencies say about banks eg. Fitch http://www.fitchratings.com/ the co-op looks bad compared to lloyds Co-Op Long Term Issuer Default Rating: A 11-JAN-2008 Revision Outlook Outlook: Negative Short Term Issuer Default Rating: F1 11-JAN-2008 Affirmed Support Rating Floor: BB+ 11-JAN-2008 Affirmed Lloyds: Long Term Issuer Default Rating: AA+ 15-JAN-2007 Affirmed Outlook: Stable Short Term Issuer Default Rating: F1+ 12-JUN-2007 Revision IDR Support Rating Floor: A- 16-MAR-2007 New Rating HSBC: Long Term Issuer Default Rating: AA 21-DEC-2007 Affirmed Outlook: Stable Short Term Issuer Default Rating: F1+ 21-DEC-2007 Affirmed Support Rating Floor: A- 21-DEC-2007 Affirmed Yorkshire BS: Long Term Issuer Default Rating: A+ 04-MAR-2008 Affirmed Outlook: Stable Short Term Issuer Default Rating: F1 04-MAR-2008 Affirmed Support Rating Floor: BB+ 04-MAR-2008 Affirmed
  12. Yes I thought it was fantastic. She basically laughed at the guy who said it wasn't a crisis and that we won't have a recession. I think the wording was "No one is going to go out buy a house and get a mortgage, if you did you would be rather silly" She said it very matter of factly as if it is was just blatantly obvious.
  13. I was considering that but it gets rather difficult, I would have to decide on a salary and work from there. Or have all the factors on a page to adjust. I also thought this would probably change from person to person quite a lot, so for simplicity I stuck to the known (and a couple of not very well knowns) I would need something better than excel to deal with all the rest of the issues. So the bands are broad guestimates. If any banks are reading I will happily do it more accurately if you pay me! If I save it as a web page its not interactive, and if I make it an interactive web page its too large. mortgage_multiples.htm mortgage_multiples.htm
  14. I agree most of it is obvious, it is pretty easy to calculate, but i haven't seen a nice table showing you exactly when each multiple starts to become unstuck. I really wanted to know what all the possibilities looked like. As it is so simple surely all the banks and the rating agencies have done these calculations for the mortgages on their books and know when things become troubling. Has it really been a shift towards a perception that rates will never again hit 12%? PS. sorry you can only really cover two changing variables on excel, so you will have to change the number for deposit and salary on sheet one by hand to get these dimensions (you might need to save to update).
  15. Just needed to zip it. mortgage_multiples.zip mortgage_multiples.zip
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