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House Price Crash Forum


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About voy-por

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  1. You are quite animated about this. FWIW I actually agree with your broad outlook on the market, contrary to many on here. But I live in London, have many friends here and pre-COVID was looking to buy. Many of the flats I saved in 2019 are still on the market. The flat I almost completed on nearly 18 months back, is still there, unsold. Everyone I know who bought around 2016/17/18 and has sold their flat recently for a move to the suburbs has taken a hit. Every single one. Now the discounts aren't huge and neither is my sample, probably 5/10pc real terms, so we're not talking crash territory, y
  2. Dude you need to chill a little bit, I said FLATS not houses. Where is the evidence that people are queing for FLATS? I'm not seeing that in London was my point.
  3. Where is the evidence that flats are being fought over for viewings? Not in London, certainly.
  4. Agree. This gov has shown its hand: it is all in on house prices. A flat crash is certain in the medium term, with shifting buyer preferences and pent up selling demand. I've been tracking London for some time and its on a knife edge. People who are able to absorb a chunky loss are doing so. Those who can't are sitting tight, getting increasing techy as they look out to houses zooming up in value. Then there are the not-insignificant portion of leaseholders who, due to EWS, are stranded, waiting desperately to get their flat on the market. When that baby gets unblocked, fetch the popcorn...
  5. This is exactly what they are hoping. Their calculation is that they probably won't need these young city voters anyway, so ****** em.
  6. Low stock and FTB demand for houses that has been brought forward by covid and SD holiday is driving the surge. And it is mental, there's no hiding that. But it is also temporary and artificial. I know many on this forum are increasingly turning reluctant bulls, yet we should remember that not every part of the market is booming, and we have a not insignificant portion currently unsellable. This should make people, at the very least, cautious about the medium term outlook for house prices.
  7. This is the one to watch. My read on the scandal is that the Gov are doing all they can to dither so that the flats stay off the market. As soon as a satisfactory resolution is agreed, one the banks are happy with anyway, they know there will be an almighty surge in listings. Interesting that the BoE think this has the potential for being systemic, there are certainly knock-on effects for equity and second steppers. But is it big enough to topple the entire sector? I'm not so sure. Right now, few leaseholders can afford to take the discount that cash buyers are demanding (cheers, Help to
  8. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/26/boris-johnson-tories-economy-rising-house-prices-wages?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other "Given the nature of their current coalition, one has to wonder: if the Tories had the option to end wage stagnation and deliver affordable housing, would they even take it?"
  9. Everything else is booming but the bottom rung in central London is shitting the bed. Badly. We are not seeing it in the numbers because nothing is transacting, even with huge ‘discounts’. I don’t know whether that portion of the market is enough to bring the whole thing down, probably not. But it will be interesting to see how it pans out when leaseholders start accepting the new reality because we could quite easily see >20pc falls.
  10. They want a quick sale, they've requested a cash buyer only. Agent can't discriminate, but they're trying to communicate this in the strongest possible terms. I would move on.
  11. Flat prices are collapsing in London, right now, and that's with restricted supply from what otherwise would be listed due to cladding and covid. There is massive pent up selling demand due to these factors that I don't think is spoken about enough. This has to pop out at some point and then what happens? How do leaseholders make the step up when the housing recovery is K shaped, forked between houses and flats? There are only so many rich kids with BOMAD not affected by this or skipping a rung on the ladder to keep the market moving. At some point, its going to need these second steppers. I
  12. London flats. Pulled out of sale for a very competitively sought EC flat on eve of lockdown last March (went to sealed), flat relisted straight after, still not sold to this day. No issues with cladding and decent fees. This is the case for many other flats in my favoured history from around that period - they're just not moving. As soon as the cladding debacle is resolved, and these flats flood the market, the crash will begin. The cynic might even say this is the real reason they're dragging their heels to resolve it.. What we are seeing right now in London is a not seen before dy
  13. Quick backstory: Last March I was just about to complete on a flat in central London before the pandemic hit. I looked at the situation and decided that it would have been a disastrous decision given I am not planning to work in the city for more than two or three years. I reduced my offer by 15%, it was rejected. The flat went back on the market. Folks, that flat has still not sold. It has no issues with cladding, is in a self-contained block with low (for the area) charges. When I initially agreed a price in November 2019, there were several other offers. I looked back in my favour
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