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voy-por

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  1. Do you have a source for 8.65? Anecdotally, I've been monitoring the Toronto market because I'm moving there, and in the last few weeks, the number of listings has exploded. One to watch.
  2. Not sure how many houses but took full advantage of HtB with some pretty shady registers https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-mp-wife-used-taxpayer-7449766
  3. A couple of things going on: 1. Flat prices are definitely down between 5 and 10 pc and they're hard to shift even at those levels. So I understand the premise of the OP. BUT, London is a weird place. If you bought here you did it with either substantial family money (i.e., > 50 pc deposit) or on HtB. There is no other way. Those who have family money don't like that they've had to take a hit on the price of their flat (you should hear the complaints), but deep down they don't especially care either. Its not their money and, in any case, they've still got substantial equity to pile into a house outside of London. There are quite a few of these types in London - and there are also just enough fools to think a 10 pc discount is good value. Then there are those on HtB who are either trapped by NE or cladding, or both. These people are not moving even if they wanted to. 2. The other big source of movement is, as others have pointed out, renters. I have quite a few couple friends who were saving for a flat in London pre-covid, but have used that money, and the money saved in lockdown, to buy something bigger elsewhere. Given most people in London rent, there are shitloads of such couples, so its not hard to see where the demand comes from tbh. But do watch London flat prices closely because its the only part of the market struggling rn.
  4. You are quite animated about this. FWIW I actually agree with your broad outlook on the market, contrary to many on here. But I live in London, have many friends here and pre-COVID was looking to buy. Many of the flats I saved in 2019 are still on the market. The flat I almost completed on nearly 18 months back, is still there, unsold. Everyone I know who bought around 2016/17/18 and has sold their flat recently for a move to the suburbs has taken a hit. Every single one. Now the discounts aren't huge and neither is my sample, probably 5/10pc real terms, so we're not talking crash territory, yet anyway. But when you add in HTB and the cladding debacle its not a rosy picture. Its a frenzied market for houses, no one would argue with you there, but flats are really struggling on the ground and there's certainly not ques to get viewings. You can throw as much data at me as you like, but this is the situation in London.
  5. Dude you need to chill a little bit, I said FLATS not houses. Where is the evidence that people are queing for FLATS? I'm not seeing that in London was my point.
  6. Where is the evidence that flats are being fought over for viewings? Not in London, certainly.
  7. Agree. This gov has shown its hand: it is all in on house prices. A flat crash is certain in the medium term, with shifting buyer preferences and pent up selling demand. I've been tracking London for some time and its on a knife edge. People who are able to absorb a chunky loss are doing so. Those who can't are sitting tight, getting increasing techy as they look out to houses zooming up in value. Then there are the not-insignificant portion of leaseholders who, due to EWS, are stranded, waiting desperately to get their flat on the market. When that baby gets unblocked, fetch the popcorn... But if it looks like all this will set off a contagion, don't get exited. The government will move swiftly to underwrite the losses where they can, especially on HTB, so that initial capital is repatriated and the wheels stay greased. I would go as far as to say its odds-on that's what they'll do. That's taxpayers money, mine and yours, baling out homeowners. And it will almost certainly happen. I've decided to give up and move to Canada with my Canadian partner next year because, barring some black swan, the correction ain't gonna happen while the Conservatives rule, and demographics suggest they'll be in power for a few cycles yet. Games rigged folks, buy and get on with your lives or move away.
  8. This is exactly what they are hoping. Their calculation is that they probably won't need these young city voters anyway, so ****** em.
  9. Low stock and FTB demand for houses that has been brought forward by covid and SD holiday is driving the surge. And it is mental, there's no hiding that. But it is also temporary and artificial. I know many on this forum are increasingly turning reluctant bulls, yet we should remember that not every part of the market is booming, and we have a not insignificant portion currently unsellable. This should make people, at the very least, cautious about the medium term outlook for house prices.
  10. This is the one to watch. My read on the scandal is that the Gov are doing all they can to dither so that the flats stay off the market. As soon as a satisfactory resolution is agreed, one the banks are happy with anyway, they know there will be an almighty surge in listings. Interesting that the BoE think this has the potential for being systemic, there are certainly knock-on effects for equity and second steppers. But is it big enough to topple the entire sector? I'm not so sure. Right now, few leaseholders can afford to take the discount that cash buyers are demanding (cheers, Help to Buy). The government's hope will be that at some point they begrudgingly come to terms with this and simply stay put until some sort of price discovery is found. At which point, the systemic risk of a flash crash is avoided. However, if leaseholders are unwilling to wait, or manage to force through some legislation or other, this could get messy. They don't know it yet, but they're screwed either way. In this time of batshit panic buying, I am consoled somewhat by the fact that the bottom rung is looking increasingly vulnerable. Keep a close eye on London flats.
  11. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/26/boris-johnson-tories-economy-rising-house-prices-wages?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other "Given the nature of their current coalition, one has to wonder: if the Tories had the option to end wage stagnation and deliver affordable housing, would they even take it?"
  12. Everything else is booming but the bottom rung in central London is shitting the bed. Badly. We are not seeing it in the numbers because nothing is transacting, even with huge ‘discounts’. I don’t know whether that portion of the market is enough to bring the whole thing down, probably not. But it will be interesting to see how it pans out when leaseholders start accepting the new reality because we could quite easily see >20pc falls.
  13. They want a quick sale, they've requested a cash buyer only. Agent can't discriminate, but they're trying to communicate this in the strongest possible terms. I would move on.
  14. Flat prices are collapsing in London, right now, and that's with restricted supply from what otherwise would be listed due to cladding and covid. There is massive pent up selling demand due to these factors that I don't think is spoken about enough. This has to pop out at some point and then what happens? How do leaseholders make the step up when the housing recovery is K shaped, forked between houses and flats? There are only so many rich kids with BOMAD not affected by this or skipping a rung on the ladder to keep the market moving. At some point, its going to need these second steppers. I think we will see some really encouraging numbers in London over the next 12 to 18 months.
  15. London flats. Pulled out of sale for a very competitively sought EC flat on eve of lockdown last March (went to sealed), flat relisted straight after, still not sold to this day. No issues with cladding and decent fees. This is the case for many other flats in my favoured history from around that period - they're just not moving. As soon as the cladding debacle is resolved, and these flats flood the market, the crash will begin. The cynic might even say this is the real reason they're dragging their heels to resolve it.. What we are seeing right now in London is a not seen before dynamic. But it has all the hallmarks of a late stage panic. Rich kids skipping a rung and jumping straight in with silly offers on a limited supply of Z2/Z3 houses. However, there is only so many of these idiots. Most folk don't have that sort of cash. And the first steppers, who would ordinarily be relied on to use their capital gains to step up, are trapped in flats waiting patiently until they can sell. When they do, they'll be lucky to their capital back let alone make gains. It will spiral from there.
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