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Sprrite

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  1. This is not about winning/losing, it isn't a zero-sum game. This is merely a discussion like many others on this forum.
  2. In my opinion, if anything were to happen it would be based on the above 3. The first point is very topical as many of new build flats built since 2015 are not selling at the same level (unless it's SO) since the next buyer doesn't have access to the same HTB financing. I could see some form of this happening i.e. HTB only available for FTBs for properties build in the last 5 years (or something similar to this). Point 6 has been previously discussed by the Tories previously from what I remember but it does open a can of worms and stores up problems in future years. Depending on how
  3. I guess we'll see. I know I'm contrarian on this point and I've said it before on this forum, but I still think there is a chance of a deflationary cycle happening especially once government supports ends and unemployment increases. God knows how many people have left the UK because of the pandemic and the knock-on effects of this.
  4. Well you're probably right no-one is 'forced' but I suspect a lot of LLs will want guarantors or significant rent upfront given how COVID has panned out and the difficulty of evicting tenants in the last 12 months. I have had the issue of guarantor sprung on me rather slyly by an agency a few years ago which was a big learning experience for me. It was more common than people think in pre-pandemic times. I'll see how it is later this year when I move back to London but I am very hesitant to add guarantors (even though I know they will never be needed).
  5. For London, the flat is nice and it would suit a couple who are FTBs but the biggest issue is the tenants. You'd have to be pretty brave right now to buy with a tenant in place.
  6. The reason some think this is temporary is because it's a supply side shock. The demand of those materials hasn't increased commensurate to the current price increases. It is taking longer for goods (building materials or otherwise) to get from A to B. Ports aren't working at optimal capacity due to COVID (new safety protocols). Furthermore, many Indians are also seamen but due to COVID, they either aren't working or some countries are refusing to let ships dock in their countries. A very good article on this from the FT below: https://www.ft.com/content/cf40d764-6ab6-4638-bea6-594c
  7. Let's run with the point about hospital staff brining COVID back to their homes - during lockdown, the worst that happens is that COVID would only spread within their homes whereas if there was no lockdown, it can easily spread to to others in the community causing an exponential rise in infections and deaths. In regards to your second point in regards to the solution - it wasn't politically feasible to infect a significant portion of the population or 'young people' as they would have inevitably spread it to the older generation. How many of those would have got Long Covid which further
  8. It has flattened the curve in the UK last year and also earlier this year during periods of lockdown. Even the lite-lockdown in November reduced transmissions. If lockdowns didn't occur, we would have had a much higher death rate in the UK - it's a numbers game after all and the more people infected means the more deaths that would have taken place. Given the Indian variant is now in the UK, I can see some form of another lockdown occurring later this year (possibly around half term school holidays in October).
  9. Lockdown has helped flatten the curve in the UK and in other countries/ Hospital Transmission to the community will be negligible under lockdown - I'm not sure how this causes the dominance of a more harmful strain? If you look at India, the amount of political/religious events that took place were breeding grounds for spreading the virus 🦠 and given this there's more transmission, there's more likelihood of different and more harmful strains emerging in order to survive and thrive. We may not like it, but lockdown does seem to work to flatten the curve.
  10. I still think inflation will remain low long term. This uptick in inflation has more to do with COVID - as in Ports/Ships working at less than optimal efficiency due to social distancing / sick leave than anything else. Now granted this could continue for a while depending on how the pandemic plays out. Shipping and trade basically collapsed downwards in around March/April 2020 but has since recovered to pre-pandemic levels whilst countries are still fighting the pandemic and implementing safety protocols like social distancing. Inevitably this will have an effect on port capacity and how
  11. I do find it interesting we are seeing articles like the above especially in places like the Times. I have seen similar stuff on the FT and Guardian recently too. AFAIK, this has not happened previously. In regards to your second point, I think looking at a home as an investment is one of the reasons we are in this mess. A house should be somewhere to live in, not a commodified asset. Having looked at your analogy though, I still think that the FTSE 100/All Share accumulation would have outperformed average house prices in the last 30 years. If you hold stocks long-term, they will always
  12. I accidentally copied the full article and can't amend my post. The most interest quote I find is above.
  13. This property frenzy is likely to end in tears Buyers making offers on houses they haven’t even viewed should beware the risk of higher inflation and interest rates It was the moment a month ago when a firm of estate agents grandly declared themselves too busy to return calls that we decided, as renters, not to get involved in the latest property boom. A few days earlier we had seen a house that we were only moderately interested in booked out for viewings within minutes of going on the market. No, we were told, it was impossible to actually walk insid
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