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House Price Crash Forum


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About abidxxx

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  1. And just to be fair to FTB's if you have around £200k to spend In London http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-20881365.html In Cardiff : http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-33854143.html Don't pay stupid inflated Cardiff prices, London is cheaper in some respects, let me just say that again LONDON IS CHEAPER! and you will have better employment prospects.. Ah, but you say, London is more expensive, well I've just shown you that the main expense of housing is similar, gas and electric prices are the same,shopping at Tesco in Cardiff or London is no different, your car insurance may go up slightly, fuel is similar, car tax, council tax is all identical in fact commuting in London is cheaper because of the excellent rail links. There's penty of good schools in fact you get Grammer schools here which are like private schools academically but completely free. Here's what to do, if you need to or want to live in Cardiff, find a house you like, then offer the estate agent exactly £100k less than the asking price, don't feel bad or guilty about doing this, the seller is deluded and the EA is a blood sucking vampire, so don't even flinch, just calmly offer exactly £100k less than the asking price. If you do this you are making a statement, the statement is "I am not an idiot you can exploit", by pitching the asking price the EA is making a statement, "You must be stupid to pay this, but I going to try anyway because most people are stupid when it comes to buying a house". If everyone, and I mean everyone sticks to this very simple rule "OFFER £100K LESS THAN THE ASKING PRICE", then Cardiff prices will correct within a month. Or you can live in your £459k Cardiff, 4 bed semi and commute to London every week to pay for it, as thats the only place you will find jobs to afford to make the mortgage payments.
  2. London example: nice area, schools close by. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36375188.html Cardiff example http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36610949.html I do travel to Cardiff quite often so I do know how the city has grown and progressed, I witnessed the 300% prices rises during the last decade, but the underlying drivers for those rises, speculation and cheap available crazy 125% liar loans are gone. What remains is a very fragile employment state, squeezed incomes and stagnating house prices. My advice, come to London, get a similar house, at least you'll have a chance to get a job to pay the mortgage!
  3. I'm living in South London, I've been watching house prices in Cardiff since 1999 as thats my hometown. Right now you can buy a really decent 4 bed detached in nice areas of S.London with good schools and excellent transport links into Central London for £350k-£450k all day long. Go to rightmove enter CR26PZ with filters min 3 bed, within 5 miles and price range 350-500 and compare with Cardiff CF24 3LR with same filters. In Cardiff, equivalent houses, (I can only compare by size, garden, condition, niceness of area (I'm talking Cyncoed, Lisvane), the houses are £450k +, the crazy thing is Cardiff or the South West has nowhere near the employment or salary possibilities of the South East, so I cannot understand how Cardiff prices are higher than London prices. Cardiff is reliant on the public sector for employment, with government cutbacks, tight lending and higher living costs, I can see a either a massive crash or years of stagnation on the horizon in Cardiff, if you disagree please tell me why you think Cardiff prices should be higher than London.
  4. kick women out of the work place...opens up 50% more jobs. give those jobs to men who then can marry and support newly liberated women, who can stay at home have babies and raise them without child minders. viola you have full employment ans proper families again! ignore this advice if you are lesbian or gay. Plus bring back home economics A levels so women in this country can have some proper dinnet on the table when their man comes home from his new job. plus start calling crap universities poly's again so we all know whats what.
  5. This is what you do exactly. 1. ask yourself do you really want this house? A. Yes because you saw 20 already 2. Offer £205,0000 Why? because it gets it off the market. 3. Get a survey take your time...theres a long waaaay to go yet. 4. Keep looking at houses in that area. note down prices. 5. make sure the EA can almost taste his commission. 6. Get the survey report...dont even look at it...walk away. 7. GUARANTEED the EA will come back to you asking what went wrong. 8. Stall him! hes a miserable ******* and deserves to be treated with contempt. 9. Tell him in astonished tones akin go Kenneth Williams that you could not possibly go with the asking price. 10. List all the other house prices, you have seen make him think HE has to win you back. 11. Offer him the lowest price you can think off and give him 48 hours to reply. 12. You can thank me later!
  6. I am renting in S.London, since 2007 the supposed beginning of the crash there have been many mixed messages, rents going up prices going down, prices going up, rents going down...etc... I can give only my knowledge of the facts...I pay £1000 per month for a 3 bed terraced house in a very average area, if I was to move I would have to pay £1200 for a similar property...so since 2007 asking rents have gone UP. I looked at a house this week on sale for£495,0000 just to see what you get for that money, then checked land registry and discovered that the same house in 2007 was sold for £300,000! So house pricesvhave gone UP also. BUT! in some parts I have seen houses declined by upto £50,000 since 2008. Excuse the typos i am using an ipad. BUT!!! i was in Kent recently and spoke with friends who bought a 2 bed property for £200000 10years ago and now have it on For £200000 sold. so no change! i am in wales today and there are lots of houses on sale but at 2007 prices. The only pattern i can see is no pattern, no real direction a standoff between buyers and sellers with neither really twitching, at the moment sellers dont have to sell and even if they wanted to theres nothing to buy its a stalemate so only the real crap is on the market and because investing in property and flipping is not what it was there is no real movement. In this vacuum sellers can put there houses on at whatever they like and wait it out. Buyers are cautious about being suckered so they are waiting it out also. How long can this waiting game last? Any thoughts??? For what its worth....the government, the banks STOLE our money aided by idiot estate agents, how can the same object worth £300000 be worth £500000 3 years later...because the estate agent values it, the bank loans it, the government allows it in 2 ways low rates plus zero regulation. Gordon Brown cheated the people of this country and made the bankers super rich, because the larger the loan they can give the more interest they can glean as there is less chance the poor ******* who signed up will ever pay off £1/2 million on his £35k salary! The housing bubble was the biggest con trick in living memory for people to take out massive loans...money lending has been the downfall of many societies and this particular trick was done in full collusion of our elected representatives. We lived through an age when banks were giving out money faster than it coul be printed...Gordon Brown and his debt driven economy was a fools paradise and we are the fools for believing it. What i am trying to get at is a pattern If i ask any homr owner in that area they say they are sure their homrs have losy significant thousands of pounds value?? Its all too confusing...but i think it comes down to a stand off on supply of quality houses.
  7. My friend, dismiss everything you have read so far, I am the definitive answer to your question about Croydon. And that is Croydon is the best place in the World and Croydon is the worst place in the World. Let me explain...There is a great shopping centre, with department stores like Allders, House of Fraser, plenty of banks, takeaways, restaurants but if you look anyone in the eye whilst shopping you may get your head split open, recall this is the place where recently two community police officers were attacked and bitten by a mob of delinquents for daring to ask them not to litter the high street. The population is a mixture of white working class, who are a mixture of decent hard working people through to semi-criminal chavs constantly drunk or on drugs. Croydon has record teenage pregnancies, it has lots of police (it needs it). There is a nice park, but its close to Croydon college where students have been raped, risk the park at your peril after dark, even in the daytime its intimidating with gangs of afro-Caribbean youths roaming around. There are miles of subways where behind each turn maybe lurking your next assailant, its impossible to cross roads and trust me no one is going to stop for you at a zebra crossing. The bus drivers will run you down, nobody is stupid enough to cycle around Croydon except the drug pushers who mostly use pavements. It is true Croydon has excellent links into London, but by the time the train gets to East Croydon its standing room only and you still have to stop at Clapham Junction or Norwood Junction where more people will cram on, squashing you up against some unpleasant trout (there are no attractive women in Croydon, Kate Moss was an exception to the rule), making you wish you were never born. There is something edgy and nasty about Croydon, if you are non-white, white people will ignore you or ask if you speak English since it is a common belief that all coloured people are foreigners, (they may be working class chavs but they still like to believe they are better than 'foreigners'). The houses, now that's where Croydon excels, unfortunately only in how BAD houses are here, terrible ugly charmless flat conversions, expensive overpriced pokey houses, new build crap, no gardens, no parking (with the most earnest traffic enforcement in the known universe to boot). The immigration centre for most of London is in Croydon and people come here, register and generally hang around till they get deported. Its rough my friend, really rough. I genuinely believe there are some good solid salt of the earth nice people here, but Croydon is also where a large portion of the scum that can't find anywhere else to leech have ended up and their number is increasing. People are depressed, defensive, miserable and indifferent here. It has every negative aspect of London and not a single positive, not any more. I have not once in my 3 years living here been out and not heard a police siren. I can only advise you of this, there are far far better places than Croydon, seek them out and forget this place, it is a rotting shadow of what once may have been a typical English town turned into a typical rotting English town. The dentists are rubbish the doctors are rubbish, go to a surgery and you're lucky if the doctor turns up, if they do it'll be a locum on a day rate who is filling in and who you will never ever see again. The hospital is rubbish, the schools are really rubbish, as mentioned the roads are rubbish (really rubbish). I lived and worked in Croydon so was 'lucky' enough to mix with the local population. The average local Croydon person lives to get pissed, most x-factor hopefuls come from Croydon, the level of aspiration is to save enough money to have a holiday in Ibiza where they can get 'properly' pissed and be back to work with a 'healthy' tan. There is no real sophistication in Croydon, its a place where you can envision returning to the 70's very easily emphasised by working men's (drinking) clubs, ropey girls in short skirts, white high heels, faces like mutton, pissing in the street, vomit on the pavements, England flags waving from car aerials . Greggs on the high street, drunk beggars asking for 50p for a 'cup of tea'. Come to Croydon, keep your head down, ignore everyone and you'll fit in just fine.
  8. I live in Croydon, South London, currently I am renting. Croydon is a typical example of overvalued rubbish you generally get, small pokey badly built terraced houses fronting onto busy main roads with no parking and tiny if any excuses for gardens. A typical 3 bed house in an okay location (i.e. one where there hasn't been a recent stabbing), around the peak was valued at £320,000 - £350,000. Now you can get the same house for £250,000 - £300,000 (I have for the first time since 2007 seen houses below £200,000), and I would still say its overvalued for what you get and there are LOADS of these crap houses for sale. If you are looking for something nicer in a nicer area, e.g. Pollard Hill in Norbury (its not millionaires row, but lets say most people there will have jobs and won't slash your tyres if you park in front of their drive), then you may have to fork out £400,000 - £500,000+ but I think its because nice houses in nice areas are rare to come by, and I still see them as being overpriced for what you get. Houses typically are overpriced in London as there are more jobs and potential to earn more but right now that is not true, lots of people are out of work in London., with stupendously high mortgages that are being propped up by low interest rates. The general trend is down, unemployment wil continue to increase as government cutbacks progress and when interest rates go up then London prices will continue to decline over the next 5 years. The link below is an example of a property that in 2007 was valued at £220,000+ now on sale for £180,000 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-15191889.html Would I pay £180,000 for that??? well rental in this area may bring me £1,000 per month. But lets analyse that with some simple maths. I will have to put down 20% deposit (£36,000 plus lets say other costs, solicitors, doing the house up for rent etc... lets round it all up to £40,000 for simplicity). >>> Who the F*** has £40,000 lying around right now!!!! Okay lets get past that... I buy the house and let it out for £1,000 the letting agent takes £50 per month The possible repair and maintenance budget is £50 per month The repayments (THIS IS KEY), right now on a mortgage of 25 years with LOW (2.5%) interest only payments may be £300 per month. So total costs per month : £400 Gives me a profit of £600 per month. My COC cash on cash return is therefore 600/40000 = 15% NOT BAD!! BUT!!! If interest rates go to lets say 5% which is more typical; then what happens... My interest only payments go closer to £600 per month. My profit dips to £300 per month. my COC is 300/40000 = 7% What if interest rates go to 7.5% (possible). My repayments go up to £900 per month (YIPES!!!) My profit is now 0% My COC is 0/40000 = 0% >>> I WOULD MAKE MORE BY STICKING THE MONEY IN A HIGH INTEREST ACCOUNT TIME TO SELL!!! >>> HOLY S*** I'M NOT ALONE EVERYONE WANTS TO SELL!!! >>> I WANT AT LEAST £180,000 BACK FOR MY HOUSE OR I LOSE OUT!!! >>> THATS WHERE WE ARE FOLKS!!! In conclusion, interest rates will stay low for a long time, and creep up slowly over the next ten years, as those in power can easily do the sums above and realise the same outcome. They would rather milk £300 per month over 15 years then get £900 per month for 2 years and see everything go pear shaped. The reality is interest rates should be 5% they are not because if they were 90% of people would be bust, we are entering a phase of stagnation, waiting for the next boom.
  9. Hi, I have lived in Cardiff since 1988. There is one main reason for property prices being high and that is the rental market. 1. Students (Cardiff University is huge, plus there is the massive Heath medical school) 2. Professionals (Apart from Cardiff most of Wales is European Objective 1 (very poor) so everyone comes here to work, lots of Government bodies here. I know some individual people that own upto 200 (yes thats right two hundred) houses each, which they rent out in central cardiff, all the prime city centre properties are rental, very rare to find families there now who actually own their own homes, so as a result houses are now a commodity that get traded for income (which is huge) a pokey one bed shoe-box will bring you £450 per month in the inner city areas. Students will gladly pay £225 per calendar month for a room in a shared house, so a six bed let will bring you £1350 per month, to buy it will cost you around £190,000 For a 2 bed house: Pay £130,000 max For a 3 bed house: Pay £160,000 max For a 4 bed house: Pay £180,000 max The student market is going to INCREASE in Cardiff, because Glamorgan University which was a shitty poly about 15 miles north of Cardiff, has been granted huge money by the Welsh Assembly to move some departments to Cardiff, plus students coming to Wales won't have to pay huge top-up fees like English students. There are NO real jobs outside of Cardiff, so the professional rental market is very strong here, Cardiff Bay is a big failure, loads of empty flats, take your pick if you move there but it is a soulless bland artificial place. Welsh Assembly will be pumping another £1billion into Cardiff during next 5-10 years, new shopping malls, ice skating centre, olympic style sports village in Bay. Most landlords snapped up their properties around the early boom so they are not generally struggling to pay huge mortgages. If you want to live in a shitty overpriced house (with no garden), then come to Cardiff, thats the way it is and thats the way its going to stay.
  10. I did some research with a land registry company that shows the actual selling price of properties...I dont want to mention who they are. I looked at 6 large streets (there are at least 100 houses on each street), in the popular area of Roath.. this area is VERY popular with students (rental) and is good for families (local schools) and huge park nearby, there is a fantastic shopping high street nearby, it is close to the city centre (professionals). There is a mix of houses on each street from 2 beds to 5 beds. I have discounted flats and houses sold for renovation or auctioned, just normal sales included. The percentage change is based on 2004 to 2005, 2003 is there for comparison only. Angus Street 2005 Total sales: 4 :Average Price: £162250 2004 Total sales: 3 :Average Price: £175983 2003 Total sales: 7 :Average Price: £142064 Down 7.8% Arabella Street 2005 Total sales: 10 :Average Price:£154400 2004 Total sales: 19 :Average Price:£163778 2003 Total sales: 16 :Average Price:£127955 Down 5.7% Inverness Place 2005 Total sales: 12 :Average Price:£150162 2004 Total sales: 15 :Average Price:£155850 2003 Total sales: 13 :Average Price:£148184 Down 3.6% Alfred Street 2005 Total sales: 10 :Average Price:£164428 2004 Total sales: 19 :Average Price:£168750 2003 Total sales: 16 :Average Price:£147494 Down 2.6% Diana Street 2005 Total sales: 6 :Average Price:£143616 2004 Total sales: 9 :Average Price:£145111 2003 Total sales: 9 :Average Price:£139889 Down 1.0% If you take the average movement then, there has been a shift down in house prices from 2004 to 2005 of about 4%. There were only 4 sales for all five streets by the end of February 2006. There seems to be a feeling here that if prices were to come down to around the 2003 prices then properties would get snapped up, so thats too much of a drop, maybe the bottom is close to being touched in Cardiff. Do I see a crash here, absolutely not, are houses good value definately not, so why do I think no crash...one word...DEMAND, because below a certain price there are lots of buyers waiting in the wings, and that price is about only 5-10% below todays prices, so I think a drop but not a crash.
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