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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. It’s a stupid tax and totally punitive in London, where moving to a fairly normal family home could cost you £50k+. That’s a lot to pay for something you might not get anywhere near £50k use of (when compared with rent, plus mortgage interest). I think it should be scrapped and replaced with an annual tax, but any stamp duty paid on a property already should be used as credit for future payments (amount depending on how long ago the property was bought). So for example, someone paying £50k stamp duty doesn’t then immediately need to pay the ongoing tax as well.
  2. Seems there are lots of posts by people expecting to miss the stamp duty deadline and collapse their chain...
  3. There are markets within markets within markets - movement you see in one could be the opposite to what you would see in another. For example, a pretty, uniform, quiet street of period houses that are well maintained and have views of other period houses is always going to be in demand. There aren’t many that tick all of these boxes, so when houses come up there are plenty of buyers for them and they are less susceptible to price drops. The next street over might be a busier road, have various estates and ugly buildings filling gaps left by the war and the houses might largely be flats/rentals and therefore tatty. This type of street is common and therefore there will always be less demand and houses will be more susceptible to price drops. The areas I have been looking at fall into the first category and out of interest I had a look to see what these houses on certain streets did during the financial crisis in the late noughties. Prices never went down and have just kept going up and up. I suspect this will happen in 2021 and beyond as well, whilst less desirable, common properties might struggle.
  4. People seem especially desp to get a renovation property since lockdown it seems. Lots of Reno diaries on Instagram! I have the same plan but had before lockdown which is annoying as more people seem to want what I want. I doubt they appreciate the costs involved (and the need for cold hard cash in the bank!)
  5. Wealth isn’t kept in savings accounts - it’s put to work to easily get much better returns (reliable long term anyway, suitably diversified).
  6. The London figures are always interesting. Is it possible to segment the data by property type? I.e. I suspect a very different story for flats vs houses (especially for houses over £1m which we can assume in most cases are at least vaguely desirable - although perhaps not great quality in some areas).
  7. I would support this. Perhaps on all wealth above an amount linked to the average property price in the country - you’d think this would affect southerners unfairly due to high house prices but not really, they still accumulated the wealth somehow. I would personally go lower than that - maybe the average amount of savings, although then you start having trouble valuing many small amounts and so on. Essentially I think anybody can afford this regardless of amount of assets - they still have more than someone else less fortunate. I would also support an ongoing wealth tax of say 1%\year. First 5 year bills can be rolled up to death with an interest rate applied, so people can get their affairs in order. After that it’s business as usual. What people often miss about a wealth tax (like with inheritance tax) is the main reason there is such large wealth disparity is entirely due to wealth not being taxed, during life or at death. It’s a false economy, where people struggle to see that by paying their small tax bill the overall economy will become much fairer and quality of life will improve overall. Wouldn’t you rather pay a small and affordable bill for the super rich to pay billions and restrict their capacity to accumulate more through no actual work?
  8. This will probably result in rates coming down again, as well as more high LTV products coming back on. The rubbish rates this year did reduce my budget vs the start of the year - I assume it will increase prices a bit this year if they improve! But then I am likely to be part of that problem as well - sorry!!
  9. I actually think this is a good thing for those hoping for prices to stop rising. If they closed the market they would extend the stamp duty deadline by 6+ months and when it reopens there would be pent up demand again - exactly the same would happen in 2021 with massive house price rises.
  10. This is right really and if the chain realises there are no stamp duty discounts to be had, in theory everyone just reduces the offer down by the necessary amount and the person at the top of the chain takes the hit - and they can probably easily afford it. Perhaps instead of chains collapsing we just see more realistic prices than were initially offered hitting the land registry. Certainly, though, there are some people who can’t afford a penny more on their purchase - and probably can’t quite afford it in the first place, forgetting some of the necessary costs such as removals. Or they just don’t know how to properly keep track of the costs and eventually realise they are £1k short.
  11. SDLT will probably have the biggest (or at least most obvious) impact on 2021. People will now start to reduce offers as they realise they need to pay stamp duty, and come March the chains will start collapsing when people in the buying process realise they will miss the deadline. This should contribute towards lower prices. I don’t think there will be a straightforward extension but possibly a taper of some kind I.e. extension for people with approved mortgage. I can also see a long term change to SDLT announced in the budget but that could go either way to increase or reduce it. Hopefully not increase... As the pandemic starts to pass due to the vaccine (fingers crossed) I can see people thinking they can get a bargain central London flat. People still want to live here as the fun stuff is still here (albeit temporarily closed), the offices will reopen. This will push prices back up for these properties. People who moved to the country will realise they hate it and head back to the city. Desirable houses will probably also increase in price as there have been none on the market recently and the demand will still continue through the year for wealthy people that are less financially affected by the pandemic and can still afford them. Once furlough ends I expect a large amount of jobs will return as demand returns - albeit some areas will be more affected than others and places that closed down will take time to be replaced by new businesses. This won’t have too much impact either way on prices as the people most affected are largely renters who cannot afford yet to buy. Having said that, renters may be increasingly unable to pay pushing BTL properties onto the market. I imagine Hong Kong residents coming to London will push up London house prices - probably not noticeably on a macro level but certain types of properties might be affected more depending on the buying preferences. If they are largely professionals/wealthy, the good quality houses will probably continue to go further ahead of mediocre properties. This is similar to what has happened this year, with average increases masking reduction in flats and massive increases in desirable houses. I have seen certain areas go up 20-30% (SSTC at least - they may be imaginary when chains start to collapse). All in all there are so many things that could happen (or might not) that it is so hard to make a half sensible guess. The government is of course totally unpredictable as well which doesn’t help - government intervention is where the most impact will come from. However, I don’t think prices will come down next year (as they go down more slowly than they increase in an environment where people are not forced sellers, as I expect to be the case next year, with low interest rates). They will probably increase a bit but not as much as this year.
  12. Exactly - I’m seeing basically no chains collapsing and nothing coming back on the market. Maybe people are waiting to relish after Christmas. Loss of properties have been removed from Rightmove lately presumably to do the same.
  13. I think the demand for good houses is probably still there, but people are perhaps bored of the market as nothing new is coming on. That’s the case with me - I look at Rightmove far less because I know nothing interesting is likely to have been added vs summer when loads of houses were coming online. People looking to sell should take advantage of the total lack of supply - I would imagine right now is the time someone would desperately splash the cash to move, and possibly at the highest price an area would see this year or next.
  14. It’s interesting that London is down overall, as since lockdown large houses with decent gardens in south London seem to have increased around 20%. Things do seem to be slowing down though as the mad prices are sticking around and being reduced (although no great properties being listed, just average or those with some issue or other).
  15. The more I think about it, the more I think house prices will just increase again next year for good quality houses. People holding off selling, nothing moving, nobody willing to accept a loss in their house apart from desperate sellers. As soon as a good house comes on in a limited market it gets snapped up. I had a quick look at some of the best streets where we are looking and they didn’t seem to be impacted at all by the financial crisis back in the late 00s - prices just kept increasing.
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