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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by captainb

  1. It's not just that.. it's the cutting of the timeframes. Ever wonder why he cuts Hungary at April.. take a look yourself.
  2. If he annoys that much just add to the ignore list. Classic pigeon chess player. The only interesting element is what happens once that doesn't happen.. what new mad hat conspiracy nonsense will be jumped on as fact. Vaccines was dully predictable post trump next, might be more interesting... Charles being a lizard man? As a republican id find that vaugely amusing.
  3. Random stroke or as a result of their smoking habit or type 2 diabities? Both major causes of.. Know this is all trolling with the lepar colony stuff but very few medical conditions don't have some form of patient choice leading upto them. Even a car accident you choose to get into a car...
  4. They have set aims to get x % of total market. They don't want to be best buy and take away too much from banking sector as that could cause major issues. They do that on limits on rates and the amount of each product one individual can buy. When times get tough and people want more guarantees they tend to dump into NS&I therefore they slash rates to nothing to encourage others to switch out into normal banking and balance.
  5. Completly fair, also put on ventaitor at bottom of post but both work yours prob better. If there is another large pandemic think they need to move to not do this daily data malarkey in a public way. The data on a daily basis will at best be an approximation at worst missleading so not sure why it's been released to a public who typically take it as blind fact. Will annoy media for their daily clicks, but that KPI for reporting been a hindrance to any form of rationality.
  6. Interesting data quality issues ref hospitalisations. Included is anyone who tested positive for covid within 14 days prior to hospitalisation or anyone who tests postive on arrival to hospital (perfectly reasonably everyone is tested). Why does that matter? Well for many people it's really not a serious illness others it clearly is. So you do get people who have an asymptomatic infection or low symptoms and then break a leg, get cancer etc etc and are hospitalised. Those are counting as covid hospitalisations. Data error jmpact worse when cohorts catching covid are younger and thus far more likely to be mild to moderate infections. When asked to strip out those for which covid is not the primary reason for hospitalisation a third of the cases dissapear. Only done for the last 6 weeks. Stuff like this does matter, as did the crazy you can't recover from covid stats in force till August last year because it informs policy that has other very serious consequences. These data impacts also only show themselves when postive cases are high as that translation of case into covid hospitalisations or death is where the errors occur. If argument is, deaths are low but impact on NHS is high, it's highly relevant than even in the total absence of covid a third of the hospitalisations would still occur. To strip out all the nonsense probably worth using proxy. I.e for hospitalisation number of patients with covid on a ventilator (large undercount clearly but shows rise or fall and comparisons to other peaks) and deaths excess deaths. Not getting into any false positive on the testing side (personally all the evidence I've seen suggests this is minor for PCR). https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/29/hospital-figures-covid-cases-misleading/
  7. You would also logically totally expect that. As driving to a testing centre and sticking a probe right into your sinuses isn't a nice thing to do on an afternoon most that do it are told to do it by test and trace etc or feel rough and fear they might have cv19. Therefore with rising cases in the community, more people called by test and trace, more symptoms and more tests undertaken. With falling cases in the community the reverse happens.
  8. Perhaps. I actually fear rather than voting in earnest a further exponential decline in the relevance or respect of democracy.. if it does nothing for me... Tempting to go for something else.
  9. Genuinely are! Paywall but FT headline: One in five UK baby boomers are millionaires Analysis of ONS statistics shows extent of intergenerational wealth inequality https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/c69b49de-1368-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e
  10. Didn't really get much press, but UK starting to export AZ doses purchased to poor countries. 9m doses so far. Would guess vast majority of over 60s have been done yet still producing 2m a week. Hopefully they can make some difference in the likes of SE Asia. Horrifically they gave the contract for production to the Thai kings company, depsite no vaccine production experience... Something that AZ should take some responsibility for alongside the odious military government and monarchy there, both still pull the strings despite the 2019 election.
  11. Agreed on state pension however pretty bizarre you get a winter fuel allowance if you are retired in Spain or a millionaire (which 20% of pensioners are). However any working age benefits cease to exist with 16k savings.
  12. Offtopic - I've done this. Make sure you get off a lot in various places and take your time. I expected to be looking out the window watching the world and scenery go by with my books... Unfortunately, when the Soviets built it to protect the goods trains from high winds they planted birch trees either side of the track.. for thousands of miles. Obviously not in the small towns, mountainous sections etc. but they are few and far between east of the Urals. Would still do it again just with more breaks. There is a constant supply of boiling water.. which basically meant some days were a reading\copious amounts of instant coffee\birch tree blur.
  13. Thanks for the Oct 20 article which concludes "There must be an indication that the authorized vaccines are reducing infection, hospitalization, and death, or else they will not be able to stop this pandemic." jeezo if only we had 9 months later evidence of that... Oh hang on.. we've had a wave of infection post vaccination and can look at the deaths or lack of. must be that Wednesday factor that didn't mean cases translated into deaths like the other waves.. nothing to do with vacciantion
  14. You need to look into where the data comes from and what constitutes a chronic health issue as per their survey. This is a survey as well as a blood pressure test. The amount of alcohol consumed to push you into problem category is surprisingly low, 14 units per week which is 7 pints or so. Or a bottle of wine or so. Which can easily see 30% of the population hit on the survey. Same crap goes on with long covid, which is why they end up with 10% which doesn't make any sense considering number of cases etc etc Which isn't people shouldn't get fitter.. just look out for surveys that want to "prove a point"
  15. Are we genuinely suggesting smallpox vanished as it was a Wednesday rather than through a concerted vacciantion campaign? Just checking the level of madness.
  16. They let out their second homes as btl, which is great because if they don't do that the bricks and mortar would simply implode taking supply out of the market.
  17. Completly agree. While everything was shut living out in hitchen was good for everyone. However the notion that people in their 20s and 30s will no longer want to live in large cities with all they offer but instead want to be in the middle of nowhere, doesn't reflect reality. You then go back to the old sell the two bed flat in Islington and move out to hitchen when your second child arrives and conicendental turning late 30s. Same as it's been for the last few decades.
  18. Wouldn't even have to that Just do a prize draw in Dec for all the vaccinated, with the prize being a fully furnished Wimbledon house.. if you get your vaccine before end of August then you get a chance to win a free maclarean as well! People lap that crap up regardless of the odds.
  19. The Delta varient was always going to get in. As it was always going to get into France, USA, Thailand and even blooming Australia. The only sensible debate over the last 18 months has been between facists keeping it out through incredibly strict lockdowns and others pretending to. The issue is even if you do a Wuhan lockdown you have to at some point answer the question.. so.. when are we opening up. It isn't going away.
  20. That's the key. And actually has the perfect get out cause that another government is enforcing it. I'll never get why they have shifted to this uni lecture and nightclub nonsense aside from incompetence. It risks a backlash for no gain assuming your aim is max vaccination
  21. Lots of unknown, influding how this is enforced and punishment's for just not doing it. Clearly the O2 arena will enforce whatever law is passed but the owner managed late night bar on a Thursday evening may not give monkeys if there is little enforcement or fines. Went to one of the euros games, had my double Jabed cert but nobody bothered to check
  22. New build flats are being sold to HKers. Houses to people who were in flats and those that sold those houses move out. Flats without gardens are struggling to shift everything else in London seems to be selling at the moment. Selling for a flat 2019 London price not a crazy 20% coastal covid uplift mind you
  23. Your right it's not just 18 to 30 year olds that attend football but quite a lot do. Or at least do try and get tickets for the big games. If your going to push people into having a vaccine at least be honest about it, instead of taking people for mugs and pretending attending university lectures is inherently riskier for covid than getting on a crowded train, or attending the opera etc etc.
  24. Interesting to see they have moved today to suggest compulsory vaccinations for university lectures. Would just wish they dropped the pretence of X activity is risky and come clean it's a tactic merely to get the young vaccinated. University lectures, nightclubs and attending football matches have an age demographic in common not a covid risk. Bingo halls, opera and theatre would be the choices if vacciantion % were low in the over 60s.
  25. It's just not going to make a material difference. That's the point, all the lockdown policy is trimming around the edges compared to natural factors with the exception of perhaps schools -groups of 100% unvaccinated people getting close to each other as kids do. Even then shutting schools merely defers cases until the kids go back to school. Otherwise you would have a decent difference in outcomes in western Europe given the wide varying lockdown polices. And cases wouldn't just decrease without changes, yet they have. Such insistance on modifying someone else's behaviour, would be academically fine to have as a debate if there wasn't such huge collateral damage. Just because I couldn't think of anything worse than going to a nightclub, doesn't mean I'm not aware that plenty of people enjoy doing so, plenty of people are employed by the sector and sadly we have already seen several owners commit suicide. One I knew personally.
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