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captainb

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Everything posted by captainb

  1. Hang on.. that's the age group of this nonsense was being briefed for. It's even been policy for over 18 months now to scare those under 40 that it is a dangerous disease for them even though all the evidence suggests it really isn't out of the ordinary compared to other risks they ordinarily face. At some point a reality check needs to be in place that "saving" someone in care home aged 88 by stopping all access to the people they love for years, until they pass from something else, isn't saving them at all. Shockingly we will all die. Some more likely in the next few years. Any risk needs to be understood and managed in that context.
  2. Say that person fixed their mortgage at 1.5% on a 75% LTV for those five years, as you can do now. If inflation is 5% per annum and house prices rises 3% per annum. Is that person a dumbass? If you can fix your debt at a low rate then inflation, particularly if wage driven is your friend.
  3. Back in the real world. "Net mortgage borrowing in the United Kingdom hit an all-time high of GBP 17.9 billion in June 2021, easily beating market expectations of GBP 7.9 billion, driven by borrowing ahead of the tapering off of the lower stamp duty rates from July. The previous record, in March 2021, was GBP 11.5 billion, and borrowing has averaged GBP 5.4 billion in the 12 months to May 2021." https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/home-loans
  4. So when is the moment then...? Saying X shouldn't happen but when should it? And if your answer is never then don't be surprised that people who want to attend X go ahead and do it ASAP without your support.
  5. While I wouldn't go full in with the eugenics, so many of these lockdown solutions have a massive wiff of pushing water up hill about them. Looks like you are achieving something only for reality to hit when you stop the insane amount of effort. Latest, reality check is having pushed down flu for a year by locking everyone up and screwing up education for millions, it will bounce back with a vengeance this year apparently. Well that was worth it then.
  6. So now you are claiming banks are lending but wont in the future? Really rather different. I hope nobody believed this nonsense last summer and held out for the lack of lending availability crash like 2009. Sitting on 10% higher prices if they did.
  7. That and it's a virus that will naturally come and go in waves like every other highly transmissible disease. Despite anyone and everyone having varying, you must do X, y, z to get to a, b ,c Western European countries are materially all in the same place in terms of deaths per million over the course of the epidemic. Suggests strongly to me all these interventions have been massively oversold in their impact. As for the models, have no time for people who claim to accurately fortell the future with this many variables. 100k cases now are we? Oh whoops. Let's do another model using today as a base case and casually disregard we were so confident in all the other wrong ones.
  8. The banks arnt lending narrative is as wrong as it was when he started pushing it back in the summer. "Net mortgage borrowing in the United Kingdom hit an all-time high of GBP 17.9 billion in June 2021, easily beating market expectations of GBP 7.9 billion" https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/home-loans
  9. Great pub by itself in that huge old theatre and even more so considering everywhere else near there is 3x the price. Personally I don't like the food but you can't fault the beer.
  10. On a mask side point, even where they are mandated it's not being enforced.. On the tube it's a condition of carriage and yesterday 50% max wearing them. I did as travelling alone so meh, although loads of groups just chatting without one.
  11. All true. The major issue for me anyway is that every company in the world has learnt from this never to do the same thing as AZ again..always do on a commercial basis, and if some uni academics say "for the good of the world we need this to be not for profit", just tell them where to stick it. Loser is not UK, Macron, AZ , EU etc etc. But in a lot of ways the developing world, who won't get access to vaccines in the next pandemic, unless they magically can pay commercial rates.
  12. I don't go for the daily mail Brexit crap. However the slamming of the AZ vaccine by Macron based on naff all, then the EUs crappy legal challenge is shameful. All they have achieved is that for the next pandemic nobody will ever produce a vaccine at cost for the world. Risk reward basis is horrific, and if you read the latest AZ report the major shareholders are telling them so in no uncertain terms
  13. Or when Putin took control of the Russian constitution for a crisis he just handed it all back.. oh wait he didn't. Or when Thai military did their cou they handed all the power back in the 2019 election, oh wait they didn't.. Or Franco, or Mussolini or... Etc etc Just finding an example when power was handed back doesn't put the risk at nill. The numerous examples of where it wasn't should act as a severe warning not to do it unless the most abolsute worst, extreme, no other option circumstances.. People crying for boots on the ground over sodding covid suggests they have no risk perspective. Alternatively, and perhaps more likely they are control freaks, and wish to ensure everything is "under control" no matter what the cost.
  14. It's not new. Julius Cesar was dictator just for a crisis. People still all too stupid to fail to see despite thousands of years of evidence, handing power to people "just for" an event doesn't end with them just giving it after. Merely another crisis appears to justify it continuing.
  15. Depends on the level of ground rent if you have a long lease... Nothing, in terms of being worried about forfeiture (you still panic lol). If you have an assured tennacy then you need to pay. On a long lease unless you specifically agree the fee with them they can't go for a forfeiture for at least 3 years from when it's due. You can get more than that if you argue the charges arnt reasonsble and contest them. They are not due technically unless you agree them or a court agrees them. Although there might be some really odd lease wording that allows charge of X at a fixed price, people should be advised not to sign that. I'm reality the freeholder won't go down that path. They are far more likely to go to your mortgage provider and inform them as they have first charge over the asset. Legally enforcement isn't easy and isn't something that's done quickly or lightly. In the case of these huge cladding bills the reason why it's been in the news for years and will remain so is because that's how long it takes to sort out. They haven't even done court route yet on most of them and it's unlikely a judge would allow them to. Hence the stand off between who is actually paying, between the government fund, builders, leaseholders etc etc. If you get into arrears over the cleaners bill and gym etc and can pay, even if you don't think they are reasonable it's always advisable to pay then contest later. On stuff like that ultimately the court will prob side with them and you'll be liable for their legal bill.
  16. Nah they were all deliberate and different cuts... Wonder why...
  17. There is and I support the changes in the law. My point is just because someone has previously at some point used the stat process to extend by 90 years doesn't mean (if you have a flat) you can't do the same under the current provisions again later. If you have a leasehold house you are screwed but I'm at a loss as to why anyone would buy a leasehold house. People don't keep whacking on 90 years as the formula still comes out with a significant cost each time. Not worth if for a 150 year old lease where the buyer assumes someone else will extend not them
  18. As that's the stat term. There's nothing stopping you doing another 90 years a year after to push it out further then again then again.. but you pay all the fees each time. I'd your lease has 90 years or less remaining the cost of extension is reflected in the sale price you get for a flat. Extending a 180 year lease to 290 years doesn't increase by the cost so people don't bother doing it
  19. Prob not that many and those that do would rather pay the fee than keep it under a mattress for burglar to find. Regardless of what's said here it's already been implemented in several countries without the sky falling in. You do large amounts only then persuade smaller amount account holders to pay a monthly fee for services
  20. Like everywhere else that does it will be for balances over 50k or so in a bank Rest of free accounts being pushed into pay £10 a month but get "free" travel insurance and mobile phone insurance etc etc
  21. If it's a flat you can extend as often as you like. If it's a house it's just once bizarelly. Law going through multiple readings to give all leaseholders opportunity to extend to 999 years at nil ground rent. God knows when it will actually pass though. At the moment law is stupid I agree.
  22. Depends on the level of ground rent. If it's over 250 per annum or 1000 in greater London then they can do that as it treats your lease as an assured tenancy. If your ground rent is below those numbers they can't. Note service charges can be any figure on top and are not relevant in deciding if it's an assured tennacy or a long lease. If your ground rent charges are below those limits the route for the freeholder to reclaim costs is far more complex and depends on the terms in the lease, even then they would need to go to court. A court cannot under any terms allow forfeiture of a long lease regardless of what the lease says etc unless the arrears last at least three years. Even then it's the nuclear option and hard to get. If there's a mortgage secured against it, they will stop the process and engage. Doesn't help you but also doesn't help the freeholder as they have first charge.
  23. It's daily deaths per million Or to make it easier if Hungarys population was 10m people at the peak 300 people a day would be passing. UK would be 70m * 30 which would be 2,100 deaths a day. Which isn't great.
  24. There is no central funding for RNLI never had been. Vast majority of their finding is wills
  25. Quite. You can't condemn people who get forward looking predictions wrong based on what's known, although you can challenge their assertions and track record. The difference here is deliberate miss representation of prior data to make a point that doesn't exist. Classic bad faith actor which given what's at stake is pretty odious. Unlike the trump claptrap which was just stupid.
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