captainb
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Posts posted by captainb
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Stating the bleeding obvious but depends what happens this winter.
One side supermarket prices are actually deflating from April highs but as doing a July 23 v July 22 print or a aug 23 v aug 22 print there's still a large inflation impact.
If they continue to come down over next few months rate cuts on horizon, no point waiting for a negative April 24 v April 23 print when you can see it coming, if supply chains buckle again with associated transport increases then higher for longer.
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1 hour ago, reddog said:
Yes but obviously if anyone can use any currency that includes the USD.
Probably the USD would be the main currency but others could be used in certain niches.
Also people/ companies could create their own currencies. Obviously there could be some scams if this happened, but it couldn't be much worse than the current situation and some currencies that are better than the peso may come out of it.
Call me mad but being able to go into any shop in the same country and use the same currency is quite nice.
The alternative is getting ripped off on conversion at every stop... Including the supply chain.
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41 minutes ago, Mrs Doyle said:
Here's a graphic of Jo public taking a risk on Corbyn like your mate burk did.
Votes Won By Labour Leaders
2019
Jeremy Corbyn
10,295,607
2017
Jeremy Corbyn
12,878,460
2015
Ed Miliband
9,347,273
2010
Gordon Brown
8,609,527
2005
Tony Blair
9,552,436
Won what exactly?
Isn't that the point of elections.. winning.
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2 minutes ago, Sackboii said:
There's a British Standard person I think. Along with a British Standard arm, and a British Standard finger..
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10 minutes ago, Stewy said:
Windows actually now have to be wide enough to allow exit in a fire. 🙄
For what size of person?...
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On 8/12/2023 at 7:56 PM, staintunerider said:
5-15 % no way thats a small retracement prices 15% off peak are still way out of whack...when there have been serious crashes and in reality thats not a crash its just readjustment from crazy, Prices have halved or more...the US, here in 89, Northern ireland and many other markets wordlwide.
I think you might have been conditioned (and I don;t men that rudely) to view these prices as some kind of value...i assure you based on history they are not value...people were hoodwinked to focus on affordability rather than capital sum borrowed via low rates...they actually ignored the capital sum completely and did not see it as a millstone around their necks. Now that millstone weighs heavily....they cannot renegotiate a good rate in a time of higher and increasing rates and they cannot renogiate the price they paid...so if heavily levered and under financial stress...you're probably done at some point. More and more houses will be sold setting lower prices at the margins this includes BTL running for the exits...in this scenario 5% is nothing.. my last sale i gave 5% off the asking...its nothing...prices of sold are probably already down 15% just not showing in the indices yet...so useless are the Land registry(govt bureaucrats who are unable to invent a modern update of themselves).
You might laugh and but if we do get a proper reset...the magic number is 50% some areas not so high, some worse....prices will most likely retrace at least back to levels before 2008 and maybe further 04/05.
Leasehold flats and undesirable properties will as usual suffer the most, I can see a lot of one beds and tower blocks simply be handed back once people are in negative equity...
There will always be Demand, but most do not have the cash and now affordability with higher rates rules out continued crazy mortgage lending...People are daft they would in many cases borrow as much as they can be lent...like demented lemmings....the banks know the risks at these rates and lending to these people is not worth the trouble...before hey ho in a rising market they will always get their money back. The landscape has changed...heck 15% wouldnt even take us back to pre covid.
First Law of Banking " Get your money back"
What is happening now is like the phony war after we declared war on Germany...just the lull before the storm...
There's a storm coming rest assured, I think we're going to get a proper CRASH again and it's long overdue imo. It will be disaster for some and opportunity for others.
And the magic number is 50% not 5 not 15%. There are plenty of precedents for a proper crash at that percentage level and we deserve a proper crash because of what we have allowed banks and politicians to do to our country.
50% and I'm not a betting man but I have made financial decisions based on this likelihood. I got rid of all property with debt on it(no i wasnt a BTL'er never interested me).
I saw the 90's and it wasnt pretty and this is worse much worse. We are now heading towards what i was paying in the 90's on interest rates and now what ? the houses are 5 times more expensive and the outstanding debts for the heavily indebted are preposterously high...how many jobs are paying 5 times what they were in the 90's ? Wages stagnated here after 08, most of my German mates all cleared off back to Germany in the last 10 years or so as salaries were literally so 90's. Of course as they say once back in Germany "there's no shame in renting" a common german comment.
There's a storm coming I'm sure this time and it might just be cathartic for this nation and imo its well overdue due to all the shennanigans to prop prices up and blow them ever higher and then actually bold faced lie about the reasons(which the FOMO suckers fall for everytime)If you're playing this game its most likely at some point you're going to run out of road..reckon that's now...
So you honestly think there are not enough buyers at levels between 10% and 40% lower to prevent that happening?
At the moment there are still buyers (bizarrely imo) at 5-10 off the covid peak.
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48 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:
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The Republic of Ireland is predicted to have a €65.2bn (£56.3bn) budget surplus by 2027
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Many multi-national companies have settled in Dublin due to low corporation tax
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Campaigners have argued the surplus should be used on public services and housing
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Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar says his government will use a small portion to pay off debt and invest in infrastructure
So around 3.5% of GDP per year rising to 5% by 2027.
Still not Switzerland. Also not sure how sustainable it is if revenue from corp tax which should be German or French is
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1 minute ago, Trampa501 said:
We could maybe agree on that. Build that processing centre in France (would cost less than the barge/Rwanda fiascos) and maybe put an upper limit of 70k a year? Would still annoy the knee-jerk anti-any-migration people though.
Oh there's tons of solutions. Frustrating for all the notion that current system is the best.
Its self evidently isn't. Social issues of housing and other allocations are only going to get worse if this continues. AfD in Germany similar in Sweden.
Over her Brexit nonsense has disguised the issue with a fake solution but we are a farage and maybe one parliament away from something darker.
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3 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:
Well you need folk to do the key worker menial jobs as well you know? Cleaning or hospital porter jobs etc. You need to come down to London, I'll show you folk from migrant/refugee backgrounds doing all sorts of jobs that contribute from cleaners and baristas up to solicitors, doctors and pharmacists. Quite a few start up businesses you know. It's not all zero-sum (far from it) despite the deluge of blamethemigrant propaganda you get from rw media and (sadly) here.
I live in London and I agree. I see how hard some work but also see the allocation of housing in tower Hamlets say.
You just don't need 600k of them a year.
There's numbers between 0 and it.
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5 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:
And yet they are easing immigration restrictions because of the rising labour shortage. So in fact taking in refugees is a boost to their economy.
Germany passes law to attract skilled migrant workers amid fierce debate - BBC News
Indeed; almost as if the 400k claiming asylum arnt doing anything to solve the skilled worker shortage...... causing a massive social issue. Hence AfD surge in support.
(Aside from anything else if they were eligible they would apply through that route)
"A Canada-style points-based system will take into account age, skills, qualifications and any link to Germany.
Criteria will be lowered for salary, educational level and German language ability."
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1 hour ago, debtlessmanc said:
Only because of the channel, Germany is on course to take on 400-500k asylum seekers this year- could be more (that excludes Ukrainians). Those guys could have got on a train to Calais if they didn’t fancy Learning German. In fact the continent has a massive problem, the Netherlands is already using old ferries to house asylum seekers (no one mentions this in connection with the uks boat). In Brussels the asylum centres are giving people tents and telling them to camp in the park.
Indeed what the "this is best of all possible worlds" looney left fail to grasp is the political impact of this huge and risking getting nasty. Fast.
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But everyone enjoyed the lockdowns right?
Finding the questioning of high taxes now to pay interests on vast debts accrued somewhat bizarre from a media in particular who cheered ludicrous lockdowns for years.
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3 hours ago, kzb said:
I made a bit of a mistake using the GDP growth figure in USD. The £ has devalued against the $ quite a lot over 35 years so that makes the slope of the plot less steep than it would be valued in £'s. I think it will be roughly 490% not 350%.
So every £1 paid 35 years ago is worth £4.90 now.
More to the point, why use annuity rates to calculate the pension ? Like you say it is not as if NI contributions are invested.
I would say that you have bought a share of UK GDP. For example, if the average worker paid say £3.5k per year of NI, (including employer contribution) 35 years ago that would be £3,500 x 4.90 = £17,150 p.a. now. That's one year only though, subsequent years probably won't give such a high return.
This seems to be the model in many European countries. The social security deductions are generally higher than here. You have got to wonder what US corporations think of setting up there when looking at the costs.
I get you love to compare apples and oranges ... But heres reality.
The "state pension" in France and other countries has such high contributions from companies because it's the only pension people get.
In the UK you get a state pension and companies by law have to contribute into an additional scheme an occupational pension.
If you add the occupational pension to the UK state pension this comparing apples and apples UK is middle of the road. For state employees who er contribution can be 30% plus the 13.8% er ni it's exceptionally generous.. private sector less so.
For a company US or otherwise paying the 13.8% employers NI plus the ER pension contribution is in line with the European pension contributions depending on the scheme.
The triple lock is/was and will be a ratchet nonsense job.
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35 minutes ago, sta100 said:
Furry isn't a different species, it's a gender identity. Gender identities do indeed have a role in the provision of healthcare. As for more than two sexes in the previous thousands of years, this is just pointless argumentative nonsense
Please do inform Starmer that gender and biological sex are not the same thing. Also the healthcare providers that have now replaced sex with gender in their policies as if they are interchangable. In fact someone's operation was cancelled because they didn't want to be intimately treated by someone who identified as a woman who's biological sex was male. Imagine a future where you have to accept nursing from someone dressed as a cat because it's discriminatory not to do so. Like I say, it's not a joke.
I'm sure you'll want to discuss this indefinitely because I'm sure all this pandering to a tiny minority of people at the expense of everyone else massively increases productivity, which was your point wasn't it, taxpayers money is being spent on this so we can be more productive.
We're all a happier more productive workforce for re-educating everyone that there's over 100 different genders I'm sure. I can see why it's so important for the civil service to invest taxpayers money into this, why teachers are improving education by teaching it. We're totally going to outperform China who give not two single hoots about gender identity and fill their own version of tiktok with videos of science and engineering rather than videos of people dressing up as furry animals and meowing.
Brother works in MRI.
Had a complaint where patient stated they were not asked appropriately if they could be pregnant by the technician. Apparently you shouldn't use contrast on pregnant ladies as not been approved.
It was a male transitioning (early stages) to female.
Response of trust was to apologise and change the guidance to ask all people who identify as women going forward.
Asking people without a womb if they could be pregnant to appease feelings. Gone rather monty python.
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47 minutes ago, Chunketh said:
Not being bored while working and being well paid for it. Its easier to deal with the stress if there is a decent paycheque at the end of the month, though it still takes its toll.
All these socialist nutters have never worked in a start up or a small business or normally even the private sector.
The notion that anyone would start a company with the huge amount of stress and personal risk involved (I've yet to see one where the director hasn't had to give personal guarantees at some point) only for some beurocrat to take it all away is insane.
But then they don't live in the real world..who needs job creation when the state can stamp its own forms.
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2 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:
At the risk of getting my head bitten off…
I can see similarities between the current discussion in the U.K. on inward migration and asylum seekers, and the Brexit debates directly prior to, and following the referendum.
To intellectuals, it is obvious that leaving the ECHR has detrimental consequences both to our position and image in the world, and to our rights as individuals here in the U.K. I see this as analogous to the damage that would be /has been caused by Brexit.
However, to many people living in the poorer parts of the U.K., it is absolutely obvious that we have to control inward migration and asylum entrants in order to limit pressure on our services, costs to our struggling finances, and ultimately damage to our society.
And like before, instead of understanding how serious the problem is, and all efforts being taken to find a flexible real world solution, we have the “head in the sand” idealism and the hope that the issue will just go away.
it won’t. It will get worse. For these complex issues we need consensus politics, not forced choices and extreme positions.
Indeed. If you are on a low income and on the housing register for years.
Reading / seeing people being put up in 4* hotels and/or jumping the housing list when they bring over family from X is a massive wind up at best.
It's the same reason labour won't ditch the 2 child benefit cap, regardless of ideology it's known that those who don't have 2 children and/or put off by the cost massively resent non-working families that do. Reality v ideology
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No it shouldn't be. Easy.
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13 hours ago, scottbeard said:
But the state pension is already like that?
with less than 10 years NI you get nothing. You need 30 years to get the full pension. Sliding scale in between.
You get NI years though if you are signed up as unemployed and claiming benefits..
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Alan Johnson had the best reaction to these momentum clowns. Being a former head of the postal workers Union he's clearly "right wing"
Can't stand current lot but you always need an electable opposition to keep whoever is in sane.
Will vote left this time, but strangely hoping Ruth Davidson returns (or someone centralised to clean out the ERG in a cleanse of the corrupt).
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26 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:
There is a new Farmers party being created similar to the one in the Netherlands. Rural areas and small towns are being forced to deal with the consequences of disastrous policies thought up by politicians who live in leafy south Dublin. But it looks like on current polling Irish voters will vote for more of the same again.https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2023/0809/1398973-farming-party-survey/
The current Irish government certainly has a strong case for being considered the worst government in the history of the Irish state. And there is still two years left before the election - although it looks like the same FG/FF/Green shower could end up back in power again to keep Sinn - Brits out everyone else in - Fein.
Housing isn’t the only disaster - the health service is falling apart and the infrastructure especially in terms of public transport is woeful. Where does all the money go given Ireland’s supposed GDP wealth?!
We all know that's fictional GDP just on profit allocation by multinationals...
Irish employees don't actually generate all European value nor are remunerated for Pfizer, apple etc but the books say they do.
Not sure what the "real" Irish GDP per capita is, but at a guess would be close to the French/German levels rather than swiss.
Fav impact was the 25% Irish GDP growth in 2015... Which is war rebound impressive... In reality Apple just restructured their Irish Sub to hold more IP.
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10 minutes ago, Sackboii said:
I think prices haven't 'collapsed' in the UK because the general masses still refuse to believe there's a problem. Demand may be less to do with it than first meets the eye. As far as I see there is almost no demand in the UK at current prices/interest rates. There have been a large number of properties entering the market over the past 3+ months and there is a HUGE number being added daily right now compared to past years in my search areas.
The fact is that practically nothing is selling now or for the last 6 months.
Even ones I am not personally interested in, that 'sold' months ago, I am seeing re-enter the market some months later at reduced prices because obviously it fell through. This never happened on this scale in the last 15 years.
There is no doubt that prices are falling in the UK (I agree it may not yet be enough to be considered a 'collapse'). I have no doubt this will continue until, in typical Dutch Auction fashion, the right price for a particular property is found to make it actually sell.
I am trying to gauge if Ireland is in the same boat or is lagging behind.
I agree and I think prices will fall further over the next year or 2.
Personally id guage around 10% or so further.
And the reason not 30% etc is the demand. Rent prices which follow far quicker have gone crazy in London (and Dublin from what I hear).
If someone is paying 2.5k a month on a flat in rent there's price support there at quite a high level.
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4 minutes ago, Sackboii said:
Fair point. Are you saying prices in Ireland are not falling like they are here in the UK because demand is still huge ? Or are sellers even more stubborn than here in the UK and are still thinking prices only go up ?
I'm saying price of housing is both a function of credit and demand for it.
Both have little relevance without the other.
Prices have not collapsed here or in Ireland (we are still above pre pandemic levels) despite rates going from 0.5 to 5.25 as demand is so high. If there wasn't the demand people would rent over buying in these circumstances however the demand has allowed landlords/HMO Barron's etc to simply up the prices for new let's and rebase the market.
Still if you want to buy where there is no demand, some northern towns properties are still available for less than sum of the bricks involved.
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5 minutes ago, Sackboii said:
Not sure about that, didn't Ireland have practically zero interest rates for 15 years too ?
Edit: Indeed it did..
Indeed although if demand was irrelevant you would expect prices to be collapsing now, rather than agents being booked up round the clock
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4 minutes ago, Sackboii said:
Most were seriously concerned about the population growth in recent times. I think one mentioned 3.5m to over 5m people in 20 odd years.
Think more like 4 to 5m. Still 25%
Doesn't matter though apparently demand for housing has no impact on its price
The Big Short 2.0
in House prices and the economy
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