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captainb

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Everything posted by captainb

  1. You do realise how many MRI scans are carried out daily on people who have been vaccinated given 80% of the adult population have been.... I guess you think those 10s of thousands have been scraped off the machine, baged up and nobody has noticed. Oh whoops another one. That's 80% of our patients these magnetics who have been shredded Utterly ridiculous
  2. There's a host of reasons why stock market returns tend to exceed, some off the top of my head.. 1)Your not investing in the whole economy but being very selective for the successful part. E.g if you buy a US tracker you will hold listed Amazon, but you won't hold the hundreds of independent bookshops etc they have destroyed who won't be large enough to be listed. So while the book market might grow 2% per annum. Amazon might grow 10% per annum and small independent you don't hold shrink 8%. The beauty is typically if any one of those small independents are really successful they will at some point list.. so you will hold. It's a selective process. 2, by just focussing on the total gdp economy you effectively ignore the yield. Yield being in real terms for stock markets dividends plus share but backs. Last 20 years have seen the later happen a lot more so just saying divi yield is 2% is very simplistic. 3, leverage. You are investing in the equity element which is rarely the whole company. E.g Mr rent a warehouse as well as equity borrows at 2% to buy Waterhouses that yield 5% returned to shareholders in excess of the borrowings. Effectively it scales up again.
  3. Global far higher. Us stocks have averaged 10% over last 30 years. Not bad compounding
  4. As shocking as it might it seem to people who use phrases like "plague island", you can have things that aren't great but not hell on earth. It's called context. You don't have to default to your ludicrous hyperbole.
  5. Nah just pointing out we habitually reject drugs on a QALYs basis that are orders of magnitude cheaper than covid restrictions, on the basis they are too expensive on a cost benefit analysis.. That requires more thought than "if it saves one life" so might be lost on some of the hell on earth crowd 🙂
  6. The inherent nature is they mutate at half the rate of influenza for which a vaccine of varying efficacy is released each year. If it was HIV, which mutates far faster than influenza you would have a very valid point. Again unlike smallpox vaccines won't eradicate this but most sane people aren't suggesting that. It's about making it liveable with as a disease present in our daily slash yearly lives. Something Sydney on week 6 of lockdown will have to accept at some point and Melbourne that's just gone into lockdown 6.
  7. Well it is if you are claiming you know the "shelf life" given that no published research is conclusive on this yet.. There's an implied rate which suggests a yearly booster will be needed from the Israel data but that's as far as it gets. How long some protection will last is not known until the samples being monitored meet those milestones after 12m, 18m, 24m etc etc. With variance caused by potential emergance of new varients.
  8. Given its the only health risk you don't have to consider quantum spent or risk reward in doing so in that analysis eh?
  9. The most expensive covid vaccine costs 45 USD for two doses at which Pfizer makes a solid return on... AZ is an order of magnitude cheaper. For comparison lockdowns have cost 5,000 per person so far in the UK. Level of resource allocated to vaccines is negligible compared to this lockdown nonsense.. What the conspiracy nuts can't seem to gather saying it's all about drug profits, is like saying people are only building cars to support headlight bulb manufacturers. It's nonsensical given relative quantum's.
  10. No. I quite clearly used the word quantum. Just saying people have researched something prior to it becoming a major healthcare issue is very interesting but doesn't support your point. Funnily enough without a market for a vaccine research into a vaccine tends to be limited.. compared to say, when states push the full resources of the state into it. If you can't understand that and offer no evidence to the contrary there is no point continuing. I also note you ignored that you were factually incorrect on the mutation rate. In terms of eradication I'd agree it won't happen with a vaccine but most switched on people moved outside the zero covid garbage the moment it escaped China into the whole world (including the developing world)
  11. Any evidence for this claim? Or quantum compared to amount pushed in 2020... Id also note the rate of mutation is lower than in influenza. Something that's vaccinated against admittedly yearly. "But sequencing data suggest that coronaviruses change more slowly than most other RNA viruses, probably because of a ‘proofreading’ enzyme that corrects potentially fatal copying mistakes. A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome — a rate of change about half that of influenza and one-quarter that of HIV, says Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Basel, Switzerland." https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6
  12. My (wrong) assumption was 5 years. Again happy I was wrong. To me the analogy is going to the moon in 60s. Ridiculous to do it. Oh wait heres 3% of US GDP and there we go.. You can't consider something to be reasonable or unreasonable without taking into account the amount of resources allocated to it. Although some seem to want to.
  13. 2 isn't a coincidence. Nobody gave a shite before covid19, then 100billion was chucked at it with all the associated resources. There's also no bird flu vaccine.. as well it's a potential problem not an actual one. It also won't be a coincidence that a vaccine becomes available post it becoming a issue... Rather than randomly 4 years before. 4, often these other methods don't consist of much. While I agree that people should be fitter and encouraged to do so that's always been the case for many diseases with far higher mortality rates than covid. Easier said than done.
  14. Realistically if the total is 880 all ages, given the age profile of severe covid disease is over 60, it's not going to more than 250 under 40 at most even with vaccines making a huge difference
  15. Always been the case I think... Many MPs doing the rounds were very uncomfortable when vaccines for lectures were mooted. That was dropped soon after, from official leaked the media policy.
  16. That's simply not true. Theres been 25k in from resettlement schemes the last couple of years. Issue you have is that those camps don't have 25k people in them but millions. However even the most ardent supporters of migration arnt suggesting that's solved through millions of visas being issued.
  17. I remember when OPEC tried to push oil to be priced or at least partially priced in EUR. Those contracts had all the liquidity of a lump of iron. Then whatever chatter the press has about pricing in Renminbi, not even their neighbours actually trust the Chinese Communist party so until that changes again no real interest. Dollar will be still be used in my lifetime for all commoditys at least.
  18. 3, okay then.. casually tell China, Pakistan and co not to develop coal power stations.. while your at it casually tell the rest of the developing world that they can't have the same standard of living you have.. that will go down well. Go on.. the grandchildren are watching for your "moderate cost". Or maybe. Just maybe.. the solution that seems unreasonable now is utterly reasonable with time, like developing off shore oil and gas to solve peak oil the 70s.. carbon capture and storage, while now crazy on a cost level might just work.. or something else. Tell someone to invent a vaccine from scratch and inject it to 2 billion people within 18 months.. madness! Accept neccessity is the mother of all invention, for those not blind enough to ignore it. I fully accept that climate change is real and scary.. I also fully accept that the solution to limit economic and social development of billions will never happen regardless of what any scientists or teenagers say.
  19. It's actually quite difficult to spend it.. Trying to get a bathroom redone. Issues are that firstly every half decent builder or plumber is booked out till 2022, stock of various items isnt the best.. yes you can be flexible with which shower but the more basic building materials are also in short supply. You then have the well spend it on a nice holiday gang... Well good luck doing that. New car? Again not much supply going with the chip shortage New sofa? How's December for delivery with the shipping market screwed
  20. The problem with fatalistic in 10 years time X disaster will happen, is they tend to be based on the assumption that technology will remain exactly the same. Given the person making that prediction would be a billionaire if they could predict what technology will take over in 10 years that's understandable but it doesn't make the predictions any less nonsensical. Best example being "peak oil" always 10 years away.. from 1960s onwards.. untill offshore, then tar sands then....
  21. But those are two separate points entirely. Whether something will happen if we don't do X is one point. Whether doing X is reasonable or crazy is a seperate point. I.e I won't win a medal at the 100m in the Olympics unless I can run it under 10 seconds. Perfectly valid statement despite the fact it's almost completely impossible for me to ever run 100m in under 10 seconds.
  22. It's interesting that the JVCI hasn't rushed into the whole jabs for under 18s despite what's actually known, rather than pushed, about the likes of long covid. The risks from vaccines are evidently incredibly small for young people, the reason for the lack of a rush is so is the actual risk from covid. Infection or vaccination based immunity isn't a clear cut choice for them.* I'm not sure when we decided it was reasonable, acceptable, to overplay risks to encourage children\young people to get a medical treatment that may not be beneficial for them but for someone else. Which then goes again to the latest vaccine passports mooted for lectures, nightclubs etc. Nobody would say lectures are zero risk for covid but clearly there's another aim. *Aside from those with specific underlying conditions who have had vaccines recommended.
  23. Yep and that's a perfectly valid point. Issue they had with lockdown enforcement is that your average 25 year old isn't sick with something else.. so saying but you'll miss your treatment for cancer you don't have doesn't work to encourage compliance.
  24. Well done. You've worked it out. Its been government policy since the start to make this disease scary\relevant for the under 40s as the risk is they wouldnt comply. Completely coincidentally, we have 10% of cases cause "long covid" backed up by some total BS statistics that would never see the light of day for anything else... Oh what is it? Anything you want it to be... How long does it last? Well any length of time actually ... How do we test for it? Oh we don't, we just ask people who may or may not have had covid if they have any symptoms they want and then add them to the pile. None of this means some people don't have long term complications, similar to other respiratory viral infections but what's been released on quantum etc has been ridiculous unless it's there to serve another purpose.
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