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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by captainb

  1. 2 isn't a coincidence. Nobody gave a shite before covid19, then 100billion was chucked at it with all the associated resources. There's also no bird flu vaccine.. as well it's a potential problem not an actual one. It also won't be a coincidence that a vaccine becomes available post it becoming a issue... Rather than randomly 4 years before. 4, often these other methods don't consist of much. While I agree that people should be fitter and encouraged to do so that's always been the case for many diseases with far higher mortality rates than covid. Easier said than done.
  2. Realistically if the total is 880 all ages, given the age profile of severe covid disease is over 60, it's not going to more than 250 under 40 at most even with vaccines making a huge difference
  3. Always been the case I think... Many MPs doing the rounds were very uncomfortable when vaccines for lectures were mooted. That was dropped soon after, from official leaked the media policy.
  4. That's simply not true. Theres been 25k in from resettlement schemes the last couple of years. Issue you have is that those camps don't have 25k people in them but millions. However even the most ardent supporters of migration arnt suggesting that's solved through millions of visas being issued.
  5. I remember when OPEC tried to push oil to be priced or at least partially priced in EUR. Those contracts had all the liquidity of a lump of iron. Then whatever chatter the press has about pricing in Renminbi, not even their neighbours actually trust the Chinese Communist party so until that changes again no real interest. Dollar will be still be used in my lifetime for all commoditys at least.
  6. 3, okay then.. casually tell China, Pakistan and co not to develop coal power stations.. while your at it casually tell the rest of the developing world that they can't have the same standard of living you have.. that will go down well. Go on.. the grandchildren are watching for your "moderate cost". Or maybe. Just maybe.. the solution that seems unreasonable now is utterly reasonable with time, like developing off shore oil and gas to solve peak oil the 70s.. carbon capture and storage, while now crazy on a cost level might just work.. or something else. Tell someone to invent a vaccine from scratch and inject it to 2 billion people within 18 months.. madness! Accept neccessity is the mother of all invention, for those not blind enough to ignore it. I fully accept that climate change is real and scary.. I also fully accept that the solution to limit economic and social development of billions will never happen regardless of what any scientists or teenagers say.
  7. It's actually quite difficult to spend it.. Trying to get a bathroom redone. Issues are that firstly every half decent builder or plumber is booked out till 2022, stock of various items isnt the best.. yes you can be flexible with which shower but the more basic building materials are also in short supply. You then have the well spend it on a nice holiday gang... Well good luck doing that. New car? Again not much supply going with the chip shortage New sofa? How's December for delivery with the shipping market screwed
  8. The problem with fatalistic in 10 years time X disaster will happen, is they tend to be based on the assumption that technology will remain exactly the same. Given the person making that prediction would be a billionaire if they could predict what technology will take over in 10 years that's understandable but it doesn't make the predictions any less nonsensical. Best example being "peak oil" always 10 years away.. from 1960s onwards.. untill offshore, then tar sands then....
  9. But those are two separate points entirely. Whether something will happen if we don't do X is one point. Whether doing X is reasonable or crazy is a seperate point. I.e I won't win a medal at the 100m in the Olympics unless I can run it under 10 seconds. Perfectly valid statement despite the fact it's almost completely impossible for me to ever run 100m in under 10 seconds.
  10. It's interesting that the JVCI hasn't rushed into the whole jabs for under 18s despite what's actually known, rather than pushed, about the likes of long covid. The risks from vaccines are evidently incredibly small for young people, the reason for the lack of a rush is so is the actual risk from covid. Infection or vaccination based immunity isn't a clear cut choice for them.* I'm not sure when we decided it was reasonable, acceptable, to overplay risks to encourage children\young people to get a medical treatment that may not be beneficial for them but for someone else. Which then goes again to the latest vaccine passports mooted for lectures, nightclubs etc. Nobody would say lectures are zero risk for covid but clearly there's another aim. *Aside from those with specific underlying conditions who have had vaccines recommended.
  11. Yep and that's a perfectly valid point. Issue they had with lockdown enforcement is that your average 25 year old isn't sick with something else.. so saying but you'll miss your treatment for cancer you don't have doesn't work to encourage compliance.
  12. Well done. You've worked it out. Its been government policy since the start to make this disease scary\relevant for the under 40s as the risk is they wouldnt comply. Completely coincidentally, we have 10% of cases cause "long covid" backed up by some total BS statistics that would never see the light of day for anything else... Oh what is it? Anything you want it to be... How long does it last? Well any length of time actually ... How do we test for it? Oh we don't, we just ask people who may or may not have had covid if they have any symptoms they want and then add them to the pile. None of this means some people don't have long term complications, similar to other respiratory viral infections but what's been released on quantum etc has been ridiculous unless it's there to serve another purpose.
  13. I can only conclude that he deems the risk of a vaccine higher than the risk he chooses to face or alternatively he is unconvinced that a vaccine even if administered to everyone will be enough for the lockdown crew to release other people.. Given the number of here who shout with glee at cases rising a single day (gives them a chance to scream to stop someone else doing something), I don't think the later is that unreasonable. You then have the well.. you can't possibly go back to normal incase a varient emerges. Which is a ludicrous piece of risk management. A new varient of any disease "might emerge" (bird flu being the prime guess for decades) but locking yourself in a box isn't a solution. However of course upto him to answer!
  14. Hang on.. that's the age group of this nonsense was being briefed for. It's even been policy for over 18 months now to scare those under 40 that it is a dangerous disease for them even though all the evidence suggests it really isn't out of the ordinary compared to other risks they ordinarily face. At some point a reality check needs to be in place that "saving" someone in care home aged 88 by stopping all access to the people they love for years, until they pass from something else, isn't saving them at all. Shockingly we will all die. Some more likely in the next few years. Any risk needs to be understood and managed in that context.
  15. Say that person fixed their mortgage at 1.5% on a 75% LTV for those five years, as you can do now. If inflation is 5% per annum and house prices rises 3% per annum. Is that person a dumbass? If you can fix your debt at a low rate then inflation, particularly if wage driven is your friend.
  16. Back in the real world. "Net mortgage borrowing in the United Kingdom hit an all-time high of GBP 17.9 billion in June 2021, easily beating market expectations of GBP 7.9 billion, driven by borrowing ahead of the tapering off of the lower stamp duty rates from July. The previous record, in March 2021, was GBP 11.5 billion, and borrowing has averaged GBP 5.4 billion in the 12 months to May 2021." https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/home-loans
  17. So when is the moment then...? Saying X shouldn't happen but when should it? And if your answer is never then don't be surprised that people who want to attend X go ahead and do it ASAP without your support.
  18. While I wouldn't go full in with the eugenics, so many of these lockdown solutions have a massive wiff of pushing water up hill about them. Looks like you are achieving something only for reality to hit when you stop the insane amount of effort. Latest, reality check is having pushed down flu for a year by locking everyone up and screwing up education for millions, it will bounce back with a vengeance this year apparently. Well that was worth it then.
  19. So now you are claiming banks are lending but wont in the future? Really rather different. I hope nobody believed this nonsense last summer and held out for the lack of lending availability crash like 2009. Sitting on 10% higher prices if they did.
  20. That and it's a virus that will naturally come and go in waves like every other highly transmissible disease. Despite anyone and everyone having varying, you must do X, y, z to get to a, b ,c Western European countries are materially all in the same place in terms of deaths per million over the course of the epidemic. Suggests strongly to me all these interventions have been massively oversold in their impact. As for the models, have no time for people who claim to accurately fortell the future with this many variables. 100k cases now are we? Oh whoops. Let's do another model using today as a base case and casually disregard we were so confident in all the other wrong ones.
  21. The banks arnt lending narrative is as wrong as it was when he started pushing it back in the summer. "Net mortgage borrowing in the United Kingdom hit an all-time high of GBP 17.9 billion in June 2021, easily beating market expectations of GBP 7.9 billion" https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/home-loans
  22. Great pub by itself in that huge old theatre and even more so considering everywhere else near there is 3x the price. Personally I don't like the food but you can't fault the beer.
  23. On a mask side point, even where they are mandated it's not being enforced.. On the tube it's a condition of carriage and yesterday 50% max wearing them. I did as travelling alone so meh, although loads of groups just chatting without one.
  24. All true. The major issue for me anyway is that every company in the world has learnt from this never to do the same thing as AZ again..always do on a commercial basis, and if some uni academics say "for the good of the world we need this to be not for profit", just tell them where to stick it. Loser is not UK, Macron, AZ , EU etc etc. But in a lot of ways the developing world, who won't get access to vaccines in the next pandemic, unless they magically can pay commercial rates.
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