Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by captainb

  1. And people not typically living in cities.. unlike Sweden. ( https://www.statista.com/statistics/455935/urbanization-in-sweden/ ) Minor point.
  2. Hike from 0.25% to the lofty highs of 1% causing foreclosure? Alright then...
  3. It's not because 95% mortgages or 7c earnings are unprofitable. Banks are limited by regulation on multiples they can lend at and risk. 95% mortgages are available but they carry a large cost of capital because of said regulations and they simply can't lend at 7x. If the regulations were not in place, you could easily raise capital to lend out on residential at 7 or 8x earnings and at 95%.. The way around this is for the bank to purchase the property then rent out to someone paying the equivalent of a 7x mortgage (in terms of repayment as % of salary). Which is exactly what Lloyds the most UK focused high street bank has started to do...
  4. Quite. Depsite posters making comments of flat values collapsing, even the title of this thread suggests 80% are up. Renting is shockingly awful, those that have only rented make odd comments as if replacing a washing machine or fixing a boiler breaks the bank.. it doesn't. Nothing compared to the sink cost of that monthly rental bill anyway. Until renting is less awful (like Germany) people will buy flats who can't afford houses. Then at some point they will be able to afford a house further out. Same as it's always been in this country.
  5. It's not so much that. A customer with a credit card they don't use is a loss maker for the card company. They have costs with maintaining the account, statements, credit checks, reg fees etc which they are getting naff all income for. They reduce the limit down to a token £250 to get them to move on and take the cost of servicing the card with them. On the other hand having "good customers" doesn't just mean those that go into debt. Even if you pay off the balance in full each month the card company gets interchange revenue from your spend. I.e for the £3 visa charges the store for your £150 purchase on the card, £1 is kept by visa and the £2 is passed onto the card issuer, Barclaycard etc. That more than covers their costs.
  6. I expect ICU capacity is habitually at 90% occupation pre covid times as it's incredibly expensive. Each bed requires a specially trained nurse, a ton of expensive equipment and all the associated experience from doctors as well. So it shouldn't come as a shock pre covid no nation causally had 10s of thousands of ICU beds and associated staff just twiddling their thumbs for decades. As for increased capacity inclined to agree would certainly be a far better use of resources than billions to test healthy children to find asymptomatic cases. Utter nonsense doing that. However realistically the NHS beomoth cost in excess of £100billion per annum pre covid, so the notion that doubling capacity is achievable is fanciful at best.
  7. That's really rather bizarre. You must get that without covid we are not immortal. Many of the lockdown fanatics don't but you seem not to be on that end of spectrum. Therefore, ICU capacity is required for the myriad of other conditions that need it...
  8. Same here. Financial services. Going to a leaving party every other week. Often chat after a few glasses of wine is they are leaving for a 20% rise or so. I'm expecting interesting salary reviews in Jan.
  9. Which again is a reason not to compare nor use cases. If you only test say sick people in hospital all the cases you find will be of actual disease. If you test everyone whose under 18 every week, even though is the vast majority of cases this is a utterly minor infection for them, those cases might be high but they are irrelevant. Which in turn brings to benefits of vaccination. If cases are high but people are not getting sick enough to go into hospital nor pass then happy days. Excess deaths are the only real comparable metric but that's even biased with some stats.
  10. UK carries out roughly 1m tests a day. Russia carries out 200k test a day. So roughly 10x the tests per capita. Not sure why we take a case rate without considering number of tests being carried out to get to the figure. Additionally theres clearly a difference between having 1000 asymptomatic school kids, so sick that without a test telling them they were they would be none the wiser... And 1000 cases in a hospital. Given that all kids will get this multiple times throughout their lifetime not sure why we are spending such vast resources in picking up kids who arnt sick and disruption of education in the process. Allocate to resources to those actually sick like any other disease
  11. Jeezo please at least try to read it.. Take the under 18 line very obvious as only a small cohort have been vaccinated. Your rate vaccinated is 276.5 rate not vaccinated 2,670.7 i.e 10x. So if you were correct and these are just rates in each cohort the vaccine would give 90% protection against infection, seems high. Particularly as kids who get the vaccine upto now have severe underlying conditions. However: Your not vaccinated population is 311,199, against a had at lease one dose of 33k or so, which brings it into line. You can see those rates change as the vacciantion % adjusts, it's clearly given per 100k of the general population. However you've ignored that as it doesn't suit what you are pushing. Btw if you want to push something anti Vax that table shows its of marginal benefit if at all to children but a lot of benefit for the over 60s... Not much of a conspiracy there though
  12. Where are you? Middlesbrough? Im not sure id lend to people there... Across the whole country this year's mortgage lending has broken all records. It's not difficult to get a mortgag
  13. You keep saying this, yet anyone who in the real world has got a mortgage knows you can and do get the headline rates. Yes, you need to add on the arrangement fee etc to get the real rate.. but the notion that you cannot get what's listed is utter nonsense. Some prats might revert to the SvR through lazyness and others might get stuck there through bad timed job loss, but for the vast majority you remortgage when the term expires. It's not a big deal. Took all of 2 hours last time.
  14. On government debt yes you are right but repay residential mortgages are given on a stress tested with rates 3% above the lenders SVR, i.e at the moment about 6%. Which is a lot higher than anything listed in that article. If I remortgaged at 2% rather than 1%, my payments don't double.. vast majority of each monthly payment is capital. So will rates doubling upto madness of 2% on a 5 year fix, be a drag on house prices, perhaps, all things being equal it should.. will it cause a collapse. Erm no. Dull I know.
  15. Hike to what? The link says they are a shocking 0.89% at the moment, which if consistent over a mortgage term makes property, even central London madness ridiculously cheap at the moment. Of course people don't expect that rate to last forever, but what's this hike, to crazy heights of 1.5%? Or less than that..
  16. Issue is the author realises number of deaths in those categories is miniscule compared to population size. Ludicrously so. 4k out of 750m people. If the assertion is vaccines which majority of population now have cause X would you not expect a sizeable or statistically significant impact?.... When it doesn't exist they default to linking to the whole population causally forgetting that the over 60s are 99% of the their reference data...
  17. Everything if your looking at an overall excess mortality.. they make up 99% of the figure you are looking at...
  18. What amazes with nonsense like this is people never even bother to look at the source data random internet person is referring to...even if they give it. Here it is: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality You'll note:. -2021 excess mortality driven by Jan to march i.e covid pre vaccine. - yes 14 to 44 is above baseline..but look at the bloomin scale on that graph. It caps out a 4k deaths across 29 counties (EU plus UK). -now look at the scale of deaths over 65, it's 350k. I.e a movement up or down of 1% in the 65 plus deaths gets rid of the whole 14 to 44 year old deaths ... So no. It's not young people driving excess mortality, utter BS.
  19. Why are hydrocarbons difficult to extract? Environmentally unviable perhaps but at 80USD a barrel tar sands are just about economical and there's enough there for 100s of years. Calling BS on the notion that if you can accept the environmental consequences hydrocarbons are expensive, they are not.
  20. Yep or nuclear back up. Tech needs to be invented* first for storage. *At a cost that's commercially scalable
  21. Gas used in heating is a relatively small amount of the total. Majority of uk gas consumption is used to make electricity. In 2019 for example 40% of electricity generation was from gas. Now renewables have increased overall, gas spike demands are more common as.. when the wind dies down like it has recently, you fire up the gas turbines to keep the lights on. Hence winter, summer demand is not as obvious as first thought. Also makes the government we need more renewables to counter this slightly bizaree. You have to answer the question what happens when the wind doesn't blow better.. building more wind turbines is unfortunately irrelevant in that equation.
  22. Exactly..so much nonsense posted on this subject which sadly some poor sod might listen to. Certain people gleefully posting that buying old coins to barter for goats with was the way forward a year ago. Insane nonsense.
  23. So 95% mortgage all round. Prices will increase if that comes to pass. What you want to happen and what will happen sadly often arnt the same.
  24. That's not actually true or relevant. The point was and remains Irish like all gdp per country includes the economic activity of companies based there. Just like Luxembourg there's a host of company shells that nominally conduct all their EU buisness out of Ireland (Google) or Luxembourg (Amazon) but that isn't anything to do with the productivity or not of Irish citizens. Getting back to your debt point. If you remove the US multinationals from the GDP figure, to make it comparable, Irish debt as a % goes from 69% to well over 100%. Irish times article pointing out the folly of blindly using an Irish GDP figure as you did - https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-2019-who-still-owes-more-the-irish-or-the-greeks-1.3625800
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.