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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by captainb

  1. 50 billion in bounce back loans. All via banks who are meant to chase for them but hey have a 100% guarantee from the taxpayer for bad debts.. so why give a monkeys. Total joke. And that's before you look at the examples already found of those who casually got 10, so 500k for a shell as the banks didn't check it a loan had already been given out by another one.
  2. Got it. We all all get it 10s of times throughout our lifetimes. Each time less bad than the last, until we are immunocompromised or on deaths door in our 80s and that will unfortunately potentially be it. Same as it's always been. Mad hysteria to continue to fascinate on cases that may or may not be asymptomatic or deaths without context
  3. You do realise you can't die twice right? All those dying in their 90s in an old people's home with dementia were not long for this world, covid or not. Something often lost on those pushing for kids to be off school for years and years to protect them
  4. That's the sum of it. Yes if everyone went it's a Wednesday so let's all sell the BTL and take any price received down at ye olde auction house.. that would have a big impact on property values.. but as you say why would that happen? It might be what you want to happen, personally I hate the size of the BTL market in the UK. But doesn't mean it will in my lifetime
  5. Exactly if labour came out with a rebalancing of the tax towards everyone with a higher threshold.. i.e chargeable on pensions and property income etc etc but over 25k only. It sets out an ideological, we are for the workers point. Instead they will just keep banging on about UC, failing to grasp that 90% of the country saw that upflift as temporary and always due to expire hence okay, and as they don't claim themselves don't care.
  6. I'm certainly not a left, and certainly didn't think dominic Cummings would lose anyone aside from himself anything. However people will have this tax as a seperate line item in their pay slips monthly. Harder to forget than someone who was in the papers 3 years ago. I agree with you why they are doing it now I just don't think it will work. If it does it's because labour have utterly failed to capitalise on it, by remaining the party of welfare rather than being the party of the worker.
  7. Not convinced. Mainly as after the absurd covid splurge, and "give NHS what it wants mantra", spoiler alert it will never have enough, this won't be the last rise. Not by far. So when the next rise happens will be seems as he raised X and he also did that crazy NI rise.
  8. That statement simply isn't true. The ONS produces statistics on various aspects, a lot of which impact government departments and also the private sector, but it's not a statistical oversight of the public sector. Both the public (and private sector) seperatly release data outside of this. Which can often be taken with a pinch of salt. The ONS doesn't release the 28 days stats that's PHE. It may look into them or it may not. Just like it can look into a local authorities school figures but may not. Also, looking at the FOI it clearly states that they are looking into the accuracy of the 28 day claim but won't release any data until that review is complete. Due September 2021. Which is in direct contradiction to the, they have looked at it and it's fine. They are looking at it, and it might be fine or absolute nonsense, we just don't know yet. Due 13th September so not long.
  9. Right, with 88% deaths coming within 28 days being offset, by the chance of dying with something else within 28 days of a positive test being roughly equal to the remaining 12% deaths undercounted by cutting at 28 days, to give a reasonable proxy. (Given everyone in hospitals and care homes are habitually tested the chance of dying of something else isn't the same as general population). Issue is if that worked last August it doesn't work now. As your chance of dying from something else within 28 days has remained constant, where as your chance of dying from covid within 28 days of a positive test is now 10x lower due to vaccination. Given stats are being maintained by PHE who brought us you can't recover from a covid test last year, it wouldn't be that shocking to see the lack of adjustment for vaccination is due to incompetence rather than thought. Also worth noting since vacciantion took off the excess deaths figure has been lower than deaths within 28 days, where as before vaccination reverse was true.
  10. Agreed. And that was only changed from external pressure. Seems very, very odd that 28 days was a reasonable proxy before vacciantion AND still works post vaccination given the material shift in outcomes (10x lower deaths) now 90% of adults have been vaccinated.
  11. Any evidence for that? Or is this just what you think should be happening... Queried as for a start that 28 day stat comes from PHE and NOT the ONS who use death certificates. So seems quite unlikely (although not impossible) they would be monitoring stats they don't produce. More info here, note they effectively say the 28 days is nothing to do with us.... https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/thenumberofdeathsrecordedwithin28daysofapositivecovid19testwhodiedsolelyfromcovid19
  12. Tfl since inception has been a mixture of fares and gla grants unlike other central government funded local public transport. As for having 40% of your tax take being redistributed to the provinces being a "red herring", well it's clearly not given the vast material nature of the transfer. At some point places like Bristol should stand on their own two feet. "A first-rate city with a second-rate country attached.", neatly sums up the state of affairs.
  13. You do realise that the per capita spend is funded through fares and buisness rates? At least was pre pandemic If Bristol wants a crossrail then put a surcharge on business rates like all central London firms have been paying for years Would love London to go independent or self management. Far too much London tax flows to the region's. UK tax take per head including London is 12k, Londoners pay 18k. Crazy spread. "During the financial year ending (FYE) 2019, total public sector revenue raised in the UK was £811.3 billion (£12,213 per head), representing an increase of £34.1 billion (£461 per head), from FYE 2018. Most revenue was raised in London (£161.9 billion on a geographic basis and 162.1 on a population basis) and the South East (£131.0 billion on a geographic basis and £131.2 billion on a population basis). This is equivalent to £18,177 per head on a geographic basis (£18,195 per head on a population basis) and £14,341 per head on a geographic basis (£14,360 per head on a population basis), respectively.
  14. Kazuo Ishiguro, Hillary Matel, Pullman, if we're not being snoby about it JK Rowling etc etc
  15. Is that what Marie Antoinette said to the masses while holding her slice of cake?
  16. I struggle to see how this is a zero sum game. The notion that an input of skilled labour from a different geographical and cultural area will merely just take existing jobs, rather than create new opportunities doesn't pass the most basic of sense/logic tests. Hong Kong, like Singapore is a lower tax environment but that's not the driver of success. If you want really low taxes goto Uzbekistan it Bahrain or Oman or even the Maldives. It's the stable institutions and legal framework, combined with the skillset of the people in HK and Singapore that drives the success and therefore allows that lower tax environment. 20% of a large number still funds your society, 20% of a small number doesn't. To illustrate the point if you are Rio Tinto selling iron ore forward option's to a Chinese bank.. do you do the contract in Singapore where there are the institutions and people to create and reasonably enforce the contract... Or do you do it in Shanghai where your counterparty makes the law. Easy choice. Which everyone does.
  17. Given the figures, the net impact assuming they work at the same levels of the existing community would be to earn more, pay more tax, and generate 23% more "output" than current cohorts which with wealth distribution through taxation benefits the others still here. How that looks in real life is yet to be seen, but seems plausible for enhanced UK trade with Asia bringing wealth and employment to the UK in areas such as financial services. As much as people deride financial services you need to a heck of a lot of car manufacturers to replace the total tax paid by HSBC
  18. I would suggest the reality is the "Chinese community run takeaways" line is merely an outdated stereotype. Note that's average earnings so would exclude any welfare payments or unemployed. The Chinese community also tend to have members in senior positions in most UK financial institutions for example...
  19. In reality ethnic Chinese earn 23% more than "white British', "white Irish" being the only other ethnic group to earn more. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/ethnicitypaygapsingreatbritain/2019
  20. It was all teacher assesment. If you are cynical the 70% of private school kids getting an A* or A, is a direct result of them marking their own homework and hitting their own targets. We all drive past the banners saying 90% of kids here get 3 A's to sell their £20k a year services. Nothing wrong if that's independently verified but total nonsense to allow them to do it themselves. They got 3x the uplift in % terms on A* than state comps which given they are used to get people into the top unis is awful for social mobility. https://www.tes.com/news/levels-2021-rise-3x-more-private-schools
  21. I don't know what more due diligence you would need.. ultimately they built to the building regs at the time which were signed off by a chartered surveyor as being compliant. While I can't stand builders normally, it doesn't make sense to retrospectively change rules.. Saying, you didn't build this to 2018 code.. well no as we built it in 2015 following your code that was in force at the time... Now. If the code was a load of crap and allowed shoddy practises that's on those that set the rules.. i.e the government. I also think there's a ton of nonsensical risk avoidance here where everything must be changed as it's easier to insist work must be carried out rather than sign if off as ultimately safe. Which is why we are seeing people demanding cladding certs for buildings without cladding etc etc.
  22. But are they not purchasing a % of something that is inherently worth a lot less now? I.e if i owned 50% of a flat with my sister and wanted to purchase the other 50%, the fact that the cladding knocks £100k of the value means I should be paying her £50k less. Given how material it is I'm not surprised they are adjusting. Partly as otherwise you would never sell as the 20% old value might easily be 50% of new achieveable value which means the taxpayer doesn't realistically get paid anything for donkeys years as nobody would be mad enough to buy them out at the old value.
  23. It's in place to stop ye old scam, of ripping the kitchen out, claiming it's unmortgageable because of that and then selling to your mate for a reduced price or staircasing up on that reduced price. A lot of easy ways to temp destroy a property value for HMRC purposes for example... However, in this instance where there clearly has been an event outside of the leaseholders control.. i.e cladding being a fire risk seems perfectly reasonable to allow a reduced sale to go through taking this into account if the leaseholder wishes to take the hit.. a lot won't
  24. Amusingly if a drug was found as a wonder treatment and evidenced as such through a large scale clinical trial, he would be the first to sit through posting conspiracies about how it actually kills you next month/year* *Keep shifting the timeframe when the initial prediction is shown to be nonsense.
  25. Congratulations to your daughter.
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